Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster:spatial-temporal distribution predictionand early-warning

ＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒＶａｌｌｅｙｆｌｏｏｄａｎｄｄｒｏｕｇｈｔｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒ：ｓｐａｔｉａｌ－ｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄｅａｒｌｙ－ｗａｒｎｉｎｇＧａｏＬｉｎ，ＳｈａＷａｎｙｉｎｇ，ＬｉｕＨｕａｉｑｕａｎ，...     

灰色生长曲线与万元产值废水量预测

基于ＧＩＭ（１）灰色线性幂函数曲线，研究开发出ＧＰＭ（１）这一新的灰色生长曲线，并建立了ＧＰＭ（１）简捷的参数辨别方法。研究表明，ＧＰＭ（１）概念明确，结论可信，精度令人满意，比传统的皮尔生长曲线在应用上有着更大的优越性。为具有生长规律的非线性灰色环境系统的分析、预测和决策提供了新途径。     

1 941～1 947年豫东黄泛区的蝗灾

在1941～1947年间,豫东泛区频繁发生的蝗灾具有数量多、范围广、危害大等明显特点.肆虐的蝗灾,不仅给豫东泛区的农业生产造成惨重的损失,而且引发了众多的饥荒.为防治蝗灾,当时的河南省政府制定了种种措施,并取得一定成效,对当今治理蝗灾有一定的借鉴意义.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

渭河流域洪水灾害特征分析

分析了新中国成立以来渭河流域45次洪水灾害过程的年际变化、渭河不同河段及干支流洪水灾害特征；同时通过对致洪暴雨的时空分布、类型及灾害的分析，总结了导致渭河流域洪水灾害的降水特征。     

长江上游森林植被变化对削洪减灾功能的影响

长江上游具有形成暴雨洪水的地形与气候条件，森林植被削洪减灾功能的提高必须着眼于森林植被—土壤生态系统结构的改善，削洪减灾功能的提高是通过林冠层、枯枝落叶层和土壤层对雨水的截留拦蓄作用实现的。研究区森林植被—土壤生态系统区域差异明显，不同地区该系统林冠层、枯枝落叶层和土壤层的最大截持水量不同，该系统削洪减灾功能的大小不仅与降雨特点有关，而且与系统各水文层前期持水量有关。在连续长时间暴雨情况下，森林植被—土壤生态系统除对第一次洪峰有削减作用外，对后续暴雨洪水的削减作用不明显，甚至会使洪峰增高。根据宜昌站30d洪水量的地区组成和森林植被—土壤生态系统截留持水功能的特点，提出了长江上游森林植被恢复、重建与保护的宏观调控对策。     

FRACTAL DIMENSION ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE 7 DRAINAGE BASINS AND THE FLOOD IN CHINA

Foreword　Asoneofthethreegreatdiscoveriesin 1 970s ,thefractaltheoryhasbeenwidelyappliedinmanyfieldsconcerningthesciencesofnatureandthehumanities .Atpresent ,thefractaltheoryhasbeenappliedintherelatedanalysisofwatersystemordisaster .However ,thestud iesonnatureofrelationshipbetweenthewholewatersysteminChinaanddisasterfractalanaly sisarestillintheirinitialperiod .Thepaperpresentsafractaldimensionof 7drainagebasinsandthefloodinChinaaswellastheirpossiblerelations .Itishopedthatthepaperwouldbehe…     

SIMULATION OF TEMPORAL CHANGES IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS,COON CREEK BASIN,WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow for 67 years was simulated for Coon Creek at Coon Valley, Wisconsin, for three conditions in the drainage basin: (1) conditions in the 1930s; (2) conditions in the 1970s, excluding flood-detention reservoirs; and (3) conditions in the 1970s, including flood-detention reservoirs. These simulations showed that the changes in agricultural practices over 40 years (1940–80) reduced the 100-year flood by 53 percent (from 38,900 to 18,300 cubic feet per second). The flood-detention reservoirs reduced the 100-year flood by an additional 17 percent (to 15,100 cubic feet per second). The simulation was accomplished by calibrating a precipitation-runoff model to observed rainfall and runoff during two separate periods (1934–40 and 1978–81). Comparisons of model simulations showed that differences between the model calibrations for the two periods were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level.     

甘肃省暴雨洪水灾害分布特征研究

根据甘肃省各地1971～2000年气象整编资料及1981-2000年土壤湿度资料，计算分析了主讯期（6～8月）各地土壤水分容纳量，并对甘肃省大暴雨的时空分布、洪水灾害形成的地形、地质特征作了系统分析，依此对暴雨洪水地质灾害进行了区划，对其危害进行了评述.     

区域性洪涝灾害的灾情评估

以区域孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾能力三方面的资料为基础,探讨了如何运用地理信息系统和评估模型进行洪涝灾害灾情评估的思路和方法.经实例验证,综合灾害经济损失总量、区域调节承受能力和灾后社会或部门追加投入总量的洪涝灾度评估方法,可对区域实际遭受洪涝灾害的破坏程度和影响深度做出科学、客观、合理的评估.