基于Z指数的昆明市洪涝研究

本文基于昆明市12个气象站点1963～2013年逐月降水量数据,采用Z指数的方法,得到旱涝等级评定结果,对昆明市洪涝的时空分布特征及成因进行了深入分析与研究,在此基础上提出防洪减灾对策.研究结果表明:时间分布上,昆明市在1963～2013年间,降水量经历了上升-下降-上升下降的波动状态,51年内共出现了8次重涝,3次大涝,10次偏涝,洪涝类型以重涝和偏涝为主,洪涝主要集中出分布在60年代中期至70年代中期、80年代末至21世纪初.空间分布上,昆明市的主城区昆明及其下风方向的嵩明地区降水较多,洪涝程度最为严重,呈贡、东川地区的降水较少,洪涝程度最轻.影响因素上,影响降水量最大的自然因素是相对湿度,其次是蒸发量及总云量;最大的人为因素是城市人口,其次是SO2排放量、建成区面积及道路面积.     

RIVERINE TRANSPORT OF NUTRIENTS AND DETRITUS TO THE APALACHICOLA BAY ESTUARY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: The Applachicola River basin in northwest Florida covers an area of 3,100 square kilometers. Fifteen percent of the area is a dense bottomland hardwood forest which is periodically flooded. The annual leaf-litter fall from the flood-plain trees is a potential source of nutrients and detritus which eventually can flow into Apalachicola Bay. Transport of such material is dependent on the periodic inundation of the flood plain. The U.S. Geological Survey Apalachicola Rim Quality Assessment measured a total organic carbon flux of 2.1 × 10⁵ metric tons during the one-year period from June 3, 1979, to June 2,1980. Fluxes of total nitrogen and phosphorus during the same year were 2.1 × lo⁴ and 1.7 × lo³ metric tons, respectively. Flood characteirstics, such as prior hydrologic conditions, extent, and timing, are important in determining the amount and forms of materials transported. The 1980 spring flood produced a fourfold discharge increase over the annual mean outflow of 800 cubic meters per second. Nutrient concentrations varied little with discharge, but the 86-day spring flood accounted for 53, 60, 48, and 56 percent of the annual flux of total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, respectively. In 1980, the flood peaks, rather than the rise or recession, accounted for maximum nutrient and detritus transport.     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

试论洪涝对水稻的影响

洪涝灾害是我国主要的农业气象灾害之一，水稻遭受洪涝灾害的概率较大，研究洪涝对水稻的影响具有重要的意义。通过现场试验，对水稻不同生长阶段遭受洪涝灾害的影响和不同温度下遭受淹浸后的影响进行了研究，并用数理统计方法对水稻遭受淹浸后，其产量的一系列变化作了定量的分析。     

重庆市的洪涝灾害管理

洪涝灾害是重庆市主要自然灾害之一,每年带来巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,严重制约着重庆市社会、经济的可持续发展.本文在大量研究的基础上,分析了重庆市洪涝灾害的特点,总结了历年来的洪涝灾害及造成的损失,最后针对洪涝灾害的特点提出建立重庆市洪涝灾害管理系统,并对该系统作了详细分析.     

不同植物的表面流人工湿地系统对污染物的去除效果

通过对4种不同植物的表面流人工湿地系统处理新沂河河水的中试研究表明,在CODMn和NH 4-N进水浓度相同条件下,香蒲湿地系统出水CODMn平均浓度最低,仅为13.44 mg/L;美人蕉湿地系统出水NH 4-N平均浓度最低,仅为1.75 mg/L;香蒲和美人蕉湿地系统对CODMn的平均去除率都达到40%以上,而千屈菜和水葱湿地系统都低于30%;美人蕉、香蒲和千屈菜湿地系统对NH 4-N的平均去除率都达到65%以上,而水葱系统则低于60%.综合比较,香蒲和美人蕉湿地系统的净化能力较强.4种植物中水葱耐淹能力最强,完全淹水22 d以上依然生长良好;千屈菜耐淹能力最弱,完全淹水7 d后就开始枯萎,17 d后地上、地下部分全部死亡.     

基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

河北省旱涝灾害历史特征研究

通过分析河北省旱涝灾害的历史状况,得出黉灾呈逐年减轻、时灾呈逐年加重的认识,旱灾是河北省的一种主要自然灾害,探讨了该省旱涝灾害的时空分布规律,在时间上具有季节性、持续性和阶段性,在空间上具有地域性,对增强水患意识,防汛抗旱,今后的防灾抗灾提供了科学依据。     

2000年全球气象灾害评价

2000年,全球气候持续较常年偏暖。赤道中,东太平洋地区强拉尼娜事件在1月再次达到峰值后,迅速减弱,强拉尼娜事件对全球,特别是对热带地区产生了较大的影响,北半球许多地区冬季出现严寒天气,夏季又遭热浪袭击,严重的高温、干旱、森林大火困扰全球。而亚洲南部、西欧、南部非洲、南美北部的许多地区暴雨频繁。估计气象自然灾害造成全球经济损失达上千亿美元。数亿人口受灾。