From disaster management to adaptive governance? Governance challenges to achieving resilient food systems in Australia

Building resilient food systems in the context of climate change and increased natural disasters depends on governance being more ‘adaptive’. Through a case study of events surrounding the extensive flooding that occurred in Queensland, Australia, in 2011, this paper examines how governance settings and processes affected food system actors’ engagement with three aspects of adaptive governance – responsibility, participation and collaboration – as those actors sought to ensure food availability and access during the crisis. We found that, despite the existence of formal governance instruments committed to disaster management, food security and resilience at local, state and national levels, responsibilities for ensuring food supply during a disaster were not clearly articulated. Responsibility was largely assumed by supermarkets, who in turn increased the influence of retailer–government coalitions. The participation of non-supermarket food system actors in governance was low, and there was limited collaboration between local, and other, levels of governance. The policy challenge is to ensure that responsibility, participation and collaboration become a stronger foci for adaptive governance during and after a disaster such as flooding.     

Arc StormSurge: Integrating Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling and GIS

Arc StormSurge is a data model that integrates geographic information systems and the hurricane wave and surge model SWAN+ADCIRC, which is the coupling of the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model. The Arc StormSurge data model is a geodatabase, which is a relational database that can contain georeferenced information. It includes feature classes in feature datasets and tables, all related among them through relationship classes, and raster catalogs and grids. In addition to the data model schema, Arc StormSurge includes a number of pre‐ and post‐processing tools that help integrate spatial data and numerical modeling. As an illustration, Arc StormSurge was used to support the modeling of Hurricane Bret, which made landfall in the Corpus Christi area in Texas in 1999. By using Arc StormSurge, it was possible to take advantage of already available geo‐referenced information (e.g., base maps, land cover datasets, and monitoring station locations) for the model setup, and for identifying spatial patterns in the model results by presenting them in map format.     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

Valuing floodplain protection and avoidance in a coastal watershed

Flood‐related losses in the United States are increasing despite large‐scale mitigation efforts. To offset the rising cost of floods, the US Congress passed legislation in 2014 that will augment insurance premiums to make the National Flood Insurance Program more actuarially sound. Consequently, there is interest in lowering flood‐related costs to the homeowner, both in terms of premiums and damage. This study addresses the issue by integrating premium savings and damages avoided based on several mitigation scenarios. Specifically, it examines how much policyholders within a watershed near Houston, Texas, could have saved between 1999 and 2009 had their communities introduced specific avoidance‐based mitigation activities. The results indicate that homeowners and communities can offset premium rises and a majority of the damage suffered through marginal expansions of such initiatives. However, the costs associated with their implementation could counter some of these savings, and hence they need to be considered in future work.     

Flooding: what is the impact on pregnancy and child health?

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster in both developed and developing countries and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Worldwide, over the past 30 years, flooding has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and affected more than 2.8 billion others. The impact of flooding on health varies among populations and depends primarily on vulnerability and the kind of event experienced. It severely disrupts livelihoods and has a significant impact on the health of pregnant women and children. In addition, it may exacerbate a range of negative psychological and physiological child and reproductive health outcomes. Awareness‐raising, education, and the issuing of warnings appear to be key initiatives to mitigate or prevent flood morbidity and mortality, especially among people living in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Agencies responding to emergencies also need to be more cognisant of the dangers, specifically those engaged in healthcare, nutrition, and water safety programmes.     

基于SVM的CO2驱油藏输油管道脆弱性评价研究

CO2驱油在全国范围内的广泛开展导致内外扰动对输油管道的威胁大大增加,为指导企业发现输油管道的薄弱点从而预防事故发生,提出CO2驱油藏输油管道脆弱性概念及研究思路。将脆弱性分为5个等级并确定各级脆弱性的取值范围。深入分析脆弱性要素,从致灾因子、承灾体和灾害响应3个方面建立脆弱性评价指标体系,并确定各等级脆弱性对应的指标范围。利用MATLAB R2013a的SVM回归方法,构建脆弱性评价模型并进行实例应用。结果表明:模型训练的输出与期望输出拟合较好,均方误差为9.98052×10-7;训练好的SVM模型具有较强的泛化能力和较高的准确性,其对检验样本脆弱性进行预测的最大相对误差为0.027。利用模型得到研究区域某输油管道的脆弱性值为0.381,其脆弱性程度为不太脆弱。     

不同氧化法对模拟聚合物驱废水降黏效果的影响

分别采用UV-Fenton试剂氧化法、次氯酸钙氧化法和二氧化氯氧化法处理模拟聚合物驱废水,考察了各工艺条件对废水降黏效果的影响。实验结果表明:在初始废水pH为7、反应温度为50℃、反应时间为20 min的条件下,UV-Fenton试剂氧化法适宜的H2O2加入量为1 mmol/L,n(H2O2)∶n(Fe2+)=10,处理后废水降黏率达65.7%;次氯酸钙氧化法适宜的次氯酸钙加入量为500 mg/L,处理后废水降黏率达81.7%;二氧化氯氧化法适宜的二氧化氯加入量为100 mg/L,处理后废水降黏率为40.9%。3种氧化法对模拟聚合物驱废水的降黏率大小顺序为:次氯酸钙氧化法>UV-Fenton试剂氧化法>二氧化氯氧化法。     

Manipulation of density and viscosity for the optimization of DNAPL recovery by alcohol flooding

Laboratory experiments demonstrate that in situ recovery of pooled tetrachloroethene (PCE) from porous media may be accomplished more efficiently using multiple-step alcohol floods than with single alcohol floods. To optimize flooding efficiency while maintaining a low risk of downward DNAPL mobilization, a three-step flooding process is developed employing an isobutanol preflood, a composite alcohol mainflood, and a polymer solution postflood. The density and viscosity of these solutions are manipulated to prevent the onset and propagation of viscous and gravitational fingers, while maintaining phase behavior critical for efficient miscible NAPL displacement. An aqueous partitioning preflood solution of 10% by volume (10% v) isobutanol reduces the NAPL density in situ to approximately 1.00 g/ml by swelling the NAPL prior to miscible displacement induced by the mainflood. The composite alcohol mainflood, containing 65% v ethylene glycol and 35% v 1-propanol maintains miscibility while achieving neutral buoyancy and near stable displacement of the NAPL. Aqueous solutions of xanthan gum polymer efficiently displace the mainflood, reducing viscous fingering associated with waterfloods. Two-dimensional experiments using the multiple-step technique achieve 99.8% DNAPL mass recovery using a total of 0.45 pore volumes of alcohol, illustrating greater recovery efficiency than previous alcohol flooding formulations under comparable conditions.     

不同植物的表面流人工湿地系统对污染物的去除效果

通过对4种不同植物的表面流人工湿地系统处理新沂河河水的中试研究表明,在CODMn和NH 4-N进水浓度相同条件下,香蒲湿地系统出水CODMn平均浓度最低,仅为13.44 mg/L;美人蕉湿地系统出水NH 4-N平均浓度最低,仅为1.75 mg/L;香蒲和美人蕉湿地系统对CODMn的平均去除率都达到40%以上,而千屈菜和水葱湿地系统都低于30%;美人蕉、香蒲和千屈菜湿地系统对NH 4-N的平均去除率都达到65%以上,而水葱系统则低于60%.综合比较,香蒲和美人蕉湿地系统的净化能力较强.4种植物中水葱耐淹能力最强,完全淹水22 d以上依然生长良好;千屈菜耐淹能力最弱,完全淹水7 d后就开始枯萎,17 d后地上、地下部分全部死亡.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.