应用数值模拟技术评价矿山地压灾害

在国内外矿山安全评价领域内,主要以矿山概率风险评价为基础的评价技术,把矿井生产系统中隐患导致事故的概率与隐患造成的损害乘积作为系统状态危险度。隐患发生的概率和造成的损害是通过数据统计获得。该评价方法对隐患发生的概率和损害统计不够规范,缺乏实用性,且只讨论了采用数据的模糊性问题[1]。近年来兴起的数值模拟技术是基于可视化计算软件的一种岩石破裂过程分析方法。笔者提出了用计算机模拟技术进行矿山开采过程中的安全评价新方法,该方法应用材料相似性原理,通过计算机数值模拟,解决针对矿山开采过程中采场结构参数优化、矿柱受力破坏形式、部位、范围及合理性评价等有关地压危害方面的难题。     

地震活动趋势的多层递阶预报

多层递阶预报是动态系统的新型统计预报理论,由于它把动态系统看成是一个时变参数系统,因而与客观实际较为符合,预报误差也相对较小,利用它来预报一个地区未来的地震活动趋势,具有一定的实用价值。     

动态发酵工艺参数的研究

本文定量地研究了城市生活垃圾滚筒式好氧堆肥处理技术的工艺参数。确定了动态发酵的适宜有机物含量为５０ ％ ～６０ ％ 、含水率为３０ ％ ～５０ ％ ,一次发酵时间为１ ～３ 天,二次发酵时间为１０ 天;一次发酵最佳温度为５５ ℃～６５ ℃。     

SPACE-TIME VALIDATION OF A THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL MODEL1

A probability model for predicting the occurrence and magnitude of thunderstorm rainfall developed in the southwestern United States was tested in the metropolitan Chicago area with reasonable success, especially for the moderate to the extreme runoff-producing events. The model requires the estimation of two parameters, the mean number of events per year and the conditional probability of rain given that an event has occurred. To tie in the data from more than one gage in an area, an event can be defined in several ways, such as the areal mean rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch and at least one gage receiving more than 1.0 inch. This type of definition allows both of the model parameters to be obtained from daily warm-season rainfall records. Regardless of the definition used a Poisson distribution adequately described the number of events per season. A negative binomial distribution was derived as representing the frequency density function for rainfall where several gages are employed in defining a storm. Chicago data fit both distributions very well at events with relatively high return periods. The results indicate the possibility of using the model on a regional basis where limited amount of data may be used to estimate parameters for extensive areas.     

A SURROGATE-PARAMETER APPROACH TO MODELING GROUNDWATER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A surrrogate-prarmeter approach to modeling groundwater basins is presented, which has the following advantages over current simulation-type methods: (i) conducivness to modeling nonhomogeneous and nonisotropic basins; (ii) there is no need to guess boundary conditions if accurate information is not available; (iii) the model is amenable to systematic calibration or identification through the use of optimization techniques; and (iv) compatibility with systematic algorithms for analyzing a wide range of management strategies. Since the parameter identification problem is large-scale and nonconvex, it is decomposed through application of generalized duality theory, into several subproblems of smaller size which are solved independently a number of times in order to achieve an overall solution. Results are presented for a hypothetical system of four interacting wells.     

QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: To assure attainment and maintenance of desired water quality levels in our rivers and streams, systematic monitoring must be performed. A preliminary phase of the design of water quality surveillance systems is the specification of sampling frequencies and station locations throughout the basin; that is, the development of an adequate space/time sampling plan. The purpose of this paper is to present some quantitative methods which have been developed to identify candidate sets of sampling frequencies and station locations, and to establish priorities for implementing the different frequencies and locations. These methods are useful in the cost/effectiveness trade-off analyses in surveillance system design, and are based on the surveillance system objective of pollution abatement in which it is desired to detect violations in state-federal water quality standards. A spatial priority measure is developed which is dependent both on the water quality profile in the stream and on the information obtained from monitoring stations located in other reaches. Also, a temporal sampling priority rating is presented which is a measure of the effectiveness of the surveillance system with respect to its ability to detect the violations in the standards. To illustrate the quantitative methods, the procedures are applied to the Wabash River Basin.     

液化石油气钢瓶爆破强度的概率分布研究

应用数理统计方法，对液化石油气钢瓶爆破强度进行了分析，得到如下2个结论：①在显著度为5％时，描述爆破强度实测值与预测值之比的随机变量符合正态分布；②在置信度为99％时，分析得到了该随机变量分布参数的取值范围。     

在役压力容器安全操作思路探讨

压力容器是一种广泛使用的特殊设备，一旦使用不当或容器缺陷未及时处理，就有可能发生爆炸和介质泄漏事故。这些事故不仅危害操作人员安全，而且危及周围环境，发生易燃易爆介质的二次爆炸。合理有效地控制运行参数，是预防压力容器事故的重要途径。     

地震环境下不同重要性建筑的抗震设防水准

针对我国进行建筑物重要性分类时没有考虑地震环境影响的现实,采用地震危险性分析的方法将我国划分为地震危险性不同的3个区.同时,在采用调整设计基准期来标定建筑的重要性类别的基础上,利用地震动参数的危险性曲线,分析了不同重要性建筑在不同危险性特征分区内、不同设防概率水准(常遇、偶遇、罕遇地震)下的地震动参数(设防烈度、地震影响系数和地震地面运动加速度)的取值,最终证实调整结构的设计基准期并考虑地震环境的影响是标定结构的重要性从而调整设防等级的一种好方法.     

MODELING RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS INCLUDING LOSSES1

ABSTRACT: Existing discrete, linear rainfall-runoff models generally require the effective rainfall of a given storm as the input for computing the runoff hydrograph. This paper proposes a method for estimating, simultaneously, the optimal values of model parameters and the rainfall losses frem the measured rainfall hyetograph and the runoff hydrograph. The method involves an ARMA model for the rainfall-runoff process and a nonlinear iterative technique. The number of model parameters to be estimated for the ARMA model is much less than the unit hydrograph model. Applications of the model to three different watersheds show that the computed runoff hydrographs agree well with the measurements.