WATER QUALITY MODEL CALIBRATION: A COMPARISON OF INPUT AND OUTPUT ERROR CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: A common framework for the analysis of water resources systems is the input-parameter-output representation. The system, described by its parameters, is driven by inputs and responds with outputs. To calibrate (estimate the parameters) models of these systems requires data on both inputs and outputs, both of which are subject to random errors. When one is uncertain as to whether the predominant source of error is associated with inputs or outputs, uncertainty also exists as to the correct specification of a calibration criterion. This paper develops and analyzes two alternative least squares criteria for calibrating a numerical water quality model. The first criterion assumes that errors are associated with inputs while the second assumes output errors. Statistical properties of the resulting estimators are examined under conditions of pure input or output error and mixed error conditions from a theoretical perspective and then using simulated results from a series of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Ecological Consequences of Transient Outbreaks of Siberian Larch Casebearer,Coleophora sibiricella Flkv., in the Udmurt Republic

A transient population outbreak of the Siberian larch casebearer, Coleophora sibiricella Flkv. (Lepidoptera, Coleophoridae), in a protective forest strip and its consequences for the host tree species (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) have been studied for the first time. It has been shown that one-time complete defoliation by this pest and the following infestation by xylophagous insects result in tree death, while the productivity of surviving trees decreases significantly. The results of this study indicate that the Siberian larch casebearer is a major phyllophagous pest of larch and that its populations must be monitored by specialists in forest pathology.     

超声回弹综合法测强曲面五参数幂函数公式

提出了一种新的混凝土 f -v -R曲面五参数幂函数公式 ,它能够很好地描述混凝土的超声值v、回弹值Rm 和抗压强度值 f之间的关系 ,克服了传统的 f -v -R曲面公式拟合试验数据误差较大的缺点 ,在实际工作中 ,采用这种新提出的 f -v -R曲面公式 ,可以更准确地评价建筑结构的混凝土强度     

超声雾化性能的试验研究与回归分析

分析了煤矿井下呼吸性粉尘防治技术现状 ,重点介绍了水的超声雾化技术 ,并对其雾化性能进行了试验研究 ,最后应用回归分析建立了超声雾化性能的数学模型     

南黄海6.1级地震及其前兆的分析与思考

对南黄海６．１级地震序列和主震震源参数进行了初步推算和分析。对该次地震前的长期和中短期地震学前兆异常的分析预报作了总结，提出了长中短结合和注意异常指标的独立性及抓时空强异常综合分析的预报思路     

一种简易的城市地震小区划方法—场地指数法

本文提出了以模糊推论的综合评判方法导出的场地指数作为地震小区划的尺度进行地震小区划的方法。文中介绍了场地指数的定义和计算方法;场地指数与震害和地震动参数的关系。最后以唐山地震时该地区实际震害的分布与小区划结果的对比,验证了场地指数小区划方法的可靠性。     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: II. APPLICATION TO THE POTOMAC RIVER1

Results are reported from an application of the state space formulation and the Kalman filter to real-time forecasting of daily river flows. It is shown that the application of filtering techniques improves the overall forecasting performance of the model. As is true for most hydrologic systems, the model is not completely known. Therefore, the procedures pertaining to on-line parameter and noise statistics estimation, as presented in the first paper, are implemented. The example in this paper shows that these techniques also perform satisfactorily when applied to a real-world situation.     

基于COMSOL的采空区埋管抽采参数优化数值研究

针对回采工作面上隅角瓦斯浓度超限问题,提出了回采工作面采空区埋管抽采的方法。以保德煤矿81307工作面为研究对象,运用数值模拟软件COMSOL模拟采空区无抽采和不同抽采参数条件下工作面内瓦斯分布规律,研究埋管抽采参数对上隅角瓦斯浓度的影响规律,确定最佳的采空区埋管抽采参数。同时进行现场抽采参数优化试验,对瓦斯浓度进行监测,研究结果表明:合适的布置间距、抽采负压和抽采流量能够有效解决上隅角瓦斯超限问题,试验期间内,上隅角瓦斯体积分数最大为0.74%,进风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.2%,工作面风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.45%,回风流中瓦斯体积分数最大为0.5%,均没有超过安全标准。     

工作价值观、调节焦点与安全绩效的关系研究——基于煤矿企业新生代员工的实证分析

为了从价值观和调节焦点的双重视角给煤矿企业新生代员工的安全管理提供科学依据,在文献研究和问卷调查的基础上,对 244 个有效样本进行分析,揭示煤矿企业新生代员工工作价值观的具体内容,结合动机理论和调节焦点理论,构建煤矿企业新生代员工工作价值观、调节焦点和安全绩效的结构方程模型。研究结果表明:煤矿企业新生代员工的工作价值观包含发展导向、自我导向、关系认同、独立自主、利益导向和创造导向6个因子结构;煤矿企业新生代员工的工作价值观、调节焦点和安全绩效两两之间均显著相关;煤矿企业新生代员工的工作价值观不仅可以直接预测安全绩效,还可以通过调节焦点的中介作用间接影响煤矿员工的安全绩效。