What happens to the state in conflict?: political analysis as a tool for planning humanitarian assistance

It is now part of received wisdom that humanitarian assistance in conflict and post-conflict situations may be ineffective or even counterproductive in the absence of an informed understanding of the broader political context in which so-called 'complex political emergencies' (CPEs) occur. Though recognising that specific cases have to be understood in their own terms, this article offers a framework for incorporating political analysis in policy design. It is based on a programme of research on a number of countries in Africa and Asia over the last four years. It argues that the starting-point should be an analysis of crises of authority within contemporary nation-states which convert conflict (a feature of all political systems) into violent conflict; of how such conflict may in turn generate more problems for, or even destroy, the state; of the deep-rooted political, institutional and developmental legacies of political violence; and of the difficulties that complicate the restoration of legitimate and effective systems of governance after the 'termination' of conflict. It then lists a series of questions which such an analysis would need to ask--less in order to provide a comprehensive check-list than to uncover underlying political processes and links. It is hoped these may be used not only to understand the political dynamics of emergencies, but also to identify what kinds of policy action should and should not be given priority by practitioners.     

Global factors shaping the future of food aid: the implications for WFP

Food aid is a key component of a humanitarian response but its use in other programming contexts is subject to numerous criticisms. Even in humanitarian emergencies food aid is often late, unreliable and out of proportion to other elements of the response. Three major factors will shape the future of food aid. First, mechanisms of food aid governance are being reviewed and may undergo major changes—particularly the Food Aid Convention now that hopes have diminished for an Agreement on Agriculture at the World Trade Organisation. The second significant factor is donor agency trends. Overall levels of food aid have dropped fairly steadily in recent decades and there are several discernible trends in resource allocation, procurement and the use of food aid. The third factor is an emerging body of best practice that will define acceptable standards of food aid programming in the future.     

Conflict, camps and coercion: the ongoing livelihoods crisis in Darfur

This paper presents the findings of a study commissioned by World Food Programme (WFP) in early 2006 to enhance understanding of how the conflict in Darfur has affected livelihoods and markets, and of the effects of food aid. The livelihoods of many in Darfur were devastated early on in the conflict, principally through the widespread looting or destruction of assets and highly restricted population movements, which struck at the heart of pre-conflict livelihoods. Livelihood strategies for most people are now restricted, poorly remunerated and often associated with high risk of attack. Patterns of coercion and exploitation have also become entrenched; and markets and trade, the lifeblood of Da fur's economy pre-conflict, severely disrupted. Against this backdrop the impact of food aid on livelihoods in Darfur has been overwhelmingly positive. The paper proposes a number of preconditions for investment in recovery in Darfur, and recommends ways in which livelihoods can be supported in the current context of ongoing conflict.     

Two solitudes: post‐tsunami and post‐conflict Aceh

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries—the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for ‘disaster diplomacy’—international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non‐governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex‐combatants. The formation of these two solitudes—the tsunami‐affected and the conflict‐affected—compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.     

Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making

The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). As the production system shifted from Cwheat - CFE–beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and ‘tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input.     

The global partnership for sustainable development

This paper examines whether foreign aid, together with other economic, social and environmental factors, contributes to sustainable development. It starts with an illustrative theoretical growth model where foreign aid promotes sustainable development by protecting the environment. Using factor analysis and newly developed estimation methods for a dynamic panel data model with endogenous regressors, the empirical section of the paper finds evidence that foreign aid has had a significantly positive influence on sustainable development in aid recipient countries. This effect is very likely to go through channels related to growth and resources as well as a technology channel with respect to energy intensity. This research has important implications for a post‐2015 development framework on international collective action with regard to a sustainable future.     

The impact of humanitarian context conditions and individual characteristics on aid worker retention

High employee turnover rates constitute a major challenge to effective aid provision. This study examines how features of humanitarian work and aid workers’ individual characteristics affect retention within one humanitarian organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Holland. The study extends existing research by providing new theoretical explanations of employment opportunities and constraints and by engaging in the first large‐scale quantitative analysis of aid worker retention. Using a database of field staff (N=1,955), a logistic regression is performed of the likelihood of reenlistment after a first mission. The findings demonstrate that only 40 per cent of employees reenlist for a second mission with MSF Holland, and that workplace location and security situation, age, and gender have no significant effect. Individuals are less likely to reenlist if they returned early from the first mission for a personal reason, are in a relationship, are medical doctors, or if they come from highly developed countries. The paper reflects on the findings in the light of policy.     

食物链途径人体健康风险评估的关键内容探讨

食物是人类生存的重要保障,食品安全事关人类生命健康.食品污染始于农田耕地,还包括生产制造、包装、贮存、运输、加工等环节,每个步骤处理不当都可能发生食品安全问题.农田为食物来源的基石,是空气、水体中污染物的汇,随着城市的扩张,人类经济活动导致农田污染加剧.人类从食物中摄取污染物与经口、呼吸、皮肤的途径一样,是人体健康风险评估不可缺少的考量因素之一.我国对食品安全非常重视,2010年1月原卫生部根据《食品安全法》建立《食品安全风险监测管理规定》和《食品安全风险评估管理规定》(试行),这两份文件涵盖了从土壤到餐桌一系列的风险过程.但由于每个过程产生的原因、污染物影响机制均不同,规定离具体实际应用目标还很远.2014年环保部以保护生态环境,保障人体健康为根本,为加强污染场地环境保护监督管理,规范污染场地人体健康风险评估,发布了《污染场地风险评估技术导则》,该文建立了土壤污染造成人体健康风险评价的操作方法.然而导则考虑了经口、皮肤、呼吸及饮用地下水等9种暴露途径和评估模型,唯独缺少经食物链暴露这一重要途径的相关内容.本文以英、美两国食物链途径的场地污染风险评估为依据开展了详细探讨,深入分析了评估程序中关于土地利用方式的分类、目标人群暴露特征、污染物在食物链中传输路径、模型选取及暴露参数等内容,以期为我国制定《食物链暴露途径风险评估导则》提供一定的参考依据和指导方法.     

Livelihoods,conflict and aid programming: is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings.