森林火灾扑救风险管理问题的探讨与研究

森林火灾不可避免,与之相应的森林灭火救灾行动及其风险也不容回避。笔者将风险和风险管理理论引入森林火灾扑救之中,提出林火扑救风险及风险管理的概念和内涵;阐明了风险判识与分析、风险评估与预测、风险控制与处理的内容与方法;运用数学分析、模糊数学和现代高新技术等方法探讨林火扑救风险管理的有关问题;林火扑救属于高风险作业,提出的做好林火扑救风险管理,特别是风险控制的对策与措施,有较强的操作性、针对性和借鉴性,是防止和减少林火扑救中伤害事故的重要手段。     

深埋岛式地铁车站站台火灾时烟气蔓延数值分析

随着我国地铁的发展,未来部分地铁的发展空间属于埋深较大,经过老城区时须穿越大片房屋桩基,地质条件复杂,施工难度大,工程实施上线路和车站均需要较大的埋深。因此,深入开展深埋地铁站点火灾安全研究有助于地铁安全管理工作。笔者针对地铁深埋岛式站台火灾,利用数值模拟方法,研究深埋岛式站点内烟气横向流动和不同站层间的烟气纵向蔓延规律。分析烟气在隧道、站台及站厅内蔓延时烟气温度、有毒气体浓度、可见度等特征参数的分布情况;同时探讨了火灾时深埋岛式站点内有效的气流组织形式,隧道排烟系统的运行模式。所获的研究结论有助于同类型的地铁车站的设计和运营管理。     

BP神经网络技术在交通工具火灾预警中的应用

通过对交通工具火灾成因机理以及现有典型交通工具火灾实例的分析研究,建立了预警评价指标体系。根据非线性理论和模式识别原理以及交通工具火灾的特点,采用基于BP神经网络的智能灾害诊断方法,对交通工具火灾发生的可能性和危险性进行评估和预测。研究表明:BP神经网络方法是解决非线性系统问题的一种有效方法,与传统的预警方法相比,该方法具有速度快、效率高、可信度好、自学能力强等特点。采用BP网络进行交通工具火灾预警时,只需输入影响交通工具火灾发生的相关指标因素,网络便可在较短的时间内得出可靠的预警结果。     

基于神经网络和遗传算法的城市火灾风险评价模型

以消防安全工程学与系统安全工程理论为基础,结合我国城市发展特征及消防安全管理状况,建立了城市区域火灾风险评价指标体系;针对神经网络易陷入局部极小而引起评价指标权值分布不合理的缺陷,提出了基于神经网络和遗传算法的城市火灾风险评价模型,该模型以火灾发生的可能性以及灾后的严重程度为输入单元,火灾风险等级为输出单元,采用误差反算法训练BP网络,最终得出火灾风险等级范围,有效地解决了城市火灾的动态性和非线性特征;研究实例证明了该模型的有效性,可为城市的消防安全管理提供确实可行的参考依据。     

液化石油气罐区火灾爆炸危险性评价

液化石油气罐区属于重大危险源,一旦发生火灾爆炸事故,后果非常严重.评价其安全性,控制其危险,是重大事故预防的思想,也是国家安全生产法律、法规的强制要求.笔者根据安全工程学的相关原理,综合运用重大危险源评价法和灰色聚类法分别对罐区的固有危险性和现实危险性进行了评价,克服了重大危险性评价法未考虑环境因素这一缺陷,最后得出了其火灾爆炸危险性等级,为政府监管和企业对危险源的监控管理提供了可行的科学依据.     

油罐清洗作业火灾预防措施

油罐清洗是石油化工行业一项基本的业务活动.目前大型原油储罐、成品油储罐正在逐步推广应用自动机械清洗系统进行清罐作业,而对于容量小、沉积物较少的油罐国内仍然采用人工清洗方式进行.本文分析了油罐人工清洗作业过程中容易引发火灾的原因的基础上,从严格执行规章制度、处理好清洗废物,控制和消除引火源等几方面相应提出了预防火灾措施.     

焦化厂火灾应急预案的建立

从焦化生产的工艺以及产品的特性入手，分析了焦化厂潜在的火灾事故隐患以及发生事故的可能性，强调了焦化厂作为一个化工企业建立应急预案的必要性。阐述了建立应急预案的注意事项和内容。     

塔河流域森林生态建设存在的主要问题及其策略

随着时间的推移,塔河流域生态环境恶化的现实已被越来越多的人们所认识。造成塔河中下游森林退化,生态环境恶化的主要原因除自然因素外,主要是人为不合理的社会经济活动的影响。目前塔河流域森林生态建设存在的主要问题有:第一水资源不合理的利用成为沙漠化和次生盐渍化的主要原因;第二传统的生活方式和掠夺式的生产方式使生态环境遭到破坏;第三耕地的增加,满足不了人口发展的需求,大面积的无序开荒,导致生态环境进一步恶化。为塔河中下游林地植被恢复、建设及防止退化的策略有:塔河中下游生态工程治理的原则;塔河中下游生态环境治理的基本思路;塔河流域生态环境治理的主要对策,合理利用水资源,坚持生产、生态建设并重,确保生态用水;要积极调整农村产业结构,正确处理林业和农业、林业和牧业以及林业和工业发展的关系;大力发展农村能源建设,从根本上解决农村薪材和生态保护之间矛盾;大力保护、恢复、发展荒漠林草植被,大力发展绿洲林业,建立荒漠生态环境和绿洲共同支撑的稳定的生态体系;积极实施林业生态工程和林果工程,建立较为完备和发达的生态和产业体系。     

Best management practices compliance monitoring approaches for forestry in the eastern United States

Many of the eastern states that have published best management practices (BMPs) or forest management guidelines have also developed compliance monitoring programs to assess the application of these BMPs or guidelines on public and private forest land. The approaches among these states to collecting on-site monitoring data (measuring compliance) and evaluating sites are variable. A survey of eastern states found that almost all southern states monitor application of BMPs, but proportionally fewer of the northern states have established compliance monitoring programs. The state forestry agencies provide the leadership for these programs in most of the eastern states. States that monitor tend to evaluate all public and private forest landowner categories located within their states. In general, northern states monitor a broader array of site resources (e.g., cultural resources, visual quality) as compared to southern states which focus on water quality and wetlands protection. However, northern states focus their monitoring on timber harvesting, forest road construction and maintenance as compared to southern states which tend to monitor a broader array of forest management activities (e.g., site preparation, reforestation). When selecting sites for monitoring, the most common approach is to select some sites from all landowner categories within the state. Many states do not specify any criteria to identify sites for monitoring so that all sites have an equal chance for selection. Some states do use specific criteria to filter sites for monitoring, most commonly size of forest management activity and proximity to water.     

An assessment of Mississippi's nonindustrial private forest landowners knowledge of forestry BMP's

This study examined the knowledge levels of Mississippi Non Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) landowners. Data were collected by passing out surveys to participants in Best Management Practices (BMP) educational programs held in conjunction with County Forestry Association (CFA) meetings across Mississippi. Ten CFA's participated in this study. Educational program participants were asked to fill out a survey with several demographic and BMP questions prior to the educational program. Results show that BMP program participants owned an average of 113 hectares, whereas the average Mississippi NIPF landowner owns 20 hectares. Responses to BMP related questions show that Mississippi NIPF landowners have a low level of knowledge concerning BMP's. This situation is likely similar to other states in the Southeastern United States. It can be assumed that county forestry association members are more active and informed about managing their forest land. Therefore, these results may overestimate the BMP knowledge level all landowners in Mississippi.Improved educational programs for NIPF landowners, along with better communication between foresters, loggers, and NIPF landowners are needed if BMP's are to be implemented effectively in Mississippi and across the southern region.