Phosphorus Load Reduction Goals for Feitsui Reservoir Watershed, Taiwan

The present paper describes an effort for developing the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus and a load reduction strategy for the Feitsui Reservoir in Northern Taiwan. BASINS model was employed to estimate watershed pollutant loads from nonpoint sources (NPS) in the Feitsui Reservoir watershed. The BASINS model was calibrated using field data collected during a 2-year sampling period and then used to compute watershed pollutant loadings into the Feitsui Reservoir. The simulated results indicate that the average annual total phosphorus (TP) loading into the reservoir is 18,910 kg/year, which consists of non-point source loading of 16,003 kg/year, and point source loading of 2,907 kg/year. The Vollenweider mass balance model was used next to determine the degree of eutrophication under current pollutant loading and the load reduction needed to keep the reservoir from being eutrophic. It was estimated that Feitsui Reservoir can becoming of the oligotrophic state if the average annual TP loading is reduced by 37% or more. The results provide the basis on which an integrated control action plan for both point and nonpoint sources of pollution in the watershed can be developed.     

Northern Idaho House Dust and Soil Lead Levels Compared to the Bunker Hill Superfund Site

House dust has been identified as a major exposure medium for lead (Pb) in children. High levels of Pb in soil and house dust have been recorded at the Bunker Hill Superfund Site (BHSS) in northern Idaho, an historic mining and smelting district. Soil and dust remediation at the site was required; however, regional background soil and dust Pb levels had not been well characterized. The objective of this survey was to determine background house dust Pb levels and to compare those levels with concentrations, and dust and Pb loading rates measured at the BHSS. Soil and house dust samples were collected in five towns demographically similar to the BHSS but unaffected by the mining industry. The background concentrations and loading rates were significantly lower than those observed at the site. House age was a significant factor affecting background soil and house dust Pb concentrations and loading rates.     

Contaminant degradation in physically and chemically heterogeneous aquifers

This paper examines the importance of the correlation between hydraulic conductivity (K) and degradation rate constant (k) during the transport of reactive contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers. We simulated reactive transport in an ensemble of two-dimensional heterogeneous aquifers. Two sets of transport simulations were conducted: one in which a perfect positive correlation was assumed between ln(K) and ln(k), and one in which a perfect negative correlation was assumed. We found that the sign of the correlation has important consequences for the contaminant transport. Qualitatively, a negative correlation leads to significantly more pronounced "fingering" of the contaminant plume than does a positive correlation, with potentially important consequences for downgradient receptors. Quantitatively, the expected behavior (as quantified by the contaminant mass remaining in the aquifer) is statistically different between the positive and negative cases: on average, more contaminant mass persists when K and k are negatively correlated. Also, the negative correlation leads to more variability between realizations of the ensemble, whereas a positive correlation induces relatively little variability between realizations. We discuss the implications of these findings for the management of contaminated aquifers.     

The influence of potential reproductive rate and variation in mate quality on male and female choosiness in the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus

Recent models of choosiness in mate choice have identified two particularly important factors: the potential reproductive rate (PRR) of the choosing sex relative to that of the chosen sex, and the variation in quality of potential mates. This experimental study tested how these factors affected choosiness in male and female sand gobies, Pomatoschistus minutus. We manipulated relative PRR by means of water temperature, and mate quality by means of body length. The choosing male or female was offered a choice between two mates with either a small or a large difference in body length representing a small or a large variation in mate quality. Choosiness was measured as (1) preference for the larger mate, and (2) as whether or not spawning occurred with the smaller mate, while the larger mate was visible but screened off. We found that females preferred large males, and that their level of choosiness was affected by variation in male quality, but not by their own relative PRR. Males, on the other hand, seemed unselective in all treatments and were in general more likely than females to spawn with their provided partner. This suggests that in the sand goby, variation in male mate quality has a greater influence than relative PRR on facultative changes in female choosiness. However, a general difference in PRR between males and females may be one important factor explaining the observed sex difference in choosiness. Received: 17 April 2000 / Revised: 24 June 2000 / Accepted: 17 July 2000     

Nestling provisioning in polygynous great reed warblers (Acrocephalus arundinaceus): do males bring larger prey to compensate for fewer nest visits?

Most studies of social polygyny in birds have examined male provisioning on the basis of the number of feeding visits. This may be misleading if males compensate for infrequent visits by bringing larger prey at each visit. We investigated nestling provisioning in the socially polygynous great reed warbler, Acrocephalus arundinaceus, in south Central Sweden in 1996–1997. We collected data on rate of feeding visits, prey size and the amount of biomass delivered by males and females. Males had lower rates of feeding visits and provided smaller prey to nestlings in secondary than in monogamous and primary nests. Secondary females had higher rates of feeding visits and brought larger prey than monogamous and primary females. These results confirm that secondary females face a potential cost of polygyny through a lower rate of male feeding, and that this cost was reinforced by the significantly lower male provisioning rate (biomass h^–1) at secondary nests. Secondary females compensated for the lack of male assistance by increasing their rate of feeding and bringing larger prey. As a result, offspring in nests of secondary females received as much food as did those in nests of primary females. Prey load size increased with the parent’s proportion of feeding visits, suggesting that parents use different feeding strategies depending on their amount of responsibility for nestling provisioning. We suggest that parents which take the main responsibility for nestling feeding have to forage further away from the nest, and based on optimal-foraging theory, they should then on average bring larger prey to their nest. Received: 4 April 1999 / Received in revised form: 12 October 1999 / Accepted: 23 October 1999     

Application of a “closed-can” technique for measuring radon exhalation from mine samples of Punjab, Pakistan

Using the closed-can technique, radon exhalation rate measurements have been carried out for shale and coal samples collected from various mines located in the Chakwal and Makarwal areas of Pakistan. For the two areas, the measured average values of the exhalation rates from shale are 1.45±0.13 and 0.67±0.25 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹ and for coal are 1.0±0.03 and 0.65±0.32 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹, respectively. These values are much lower than the measured exhalation rates from alum-shale-based Nordic concrete which has values in the 50–200 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹ range. The lower values of the measured exhalation rates from the shale and coal deposits in the Chakwal and Makarwal areas are indicative of their lower uranium contents and mine workers in these areas do not face any abnormal health hazard due to radon since the exhalation rates have been found to be on the low side.     

影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估

在文献「１」研究的基础上,探讨了热带气旋频数预测水平的评估方法,定义了三个更适合于评估每年热带气旋预测性能的参数,对影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平进行了评估,并与“九五”攻关前的业务预测性进行了比较。     

石化装置安全仪表系统KooN表决结构的误跳车率定量分析

为了更准确量化安全仪表系统的误跳车率,基于联锁回路SIF中传感器、逻辑解算器、执行机构引发误跳车的不同失效机理和模型,考虑共因失效对误跳车率的影响,提出1种更符合实际并适用于异型KooN结构的新子系统误跳车率计算模型（STR of Non-identical Redundant System,SNRS）。针对SIF回路的误跳车率计算,建立了1种分析安全联锁SIF回路误跳车率（Reliability based Spurious Trip,RST）的计算框架。研究结果表明:以某聚丙烯装置第三反应器保护系统为例,将SNRS和RST方法与目前主流的多种计算方法进行数值计算对比,验证了方法的有效性,能够有效进行定量分析。     

中国经济发展方式的转变动力及其作用途径

以全要素生产率增长动力作为经济发展方式的转变动力,本文采用1989-2013年4组省际面板数据经由可行广义最小二乘法实证估计了10个动力因素对全要素生产率增长率的贡献水平与作用途径。研究发现:技术创新水平、市场化水平、人力资本存量水平、异质性企业集聚水平和对外开放度的综合指数对中国全要素生产率增长率的回归估计系数分别为0.575 7,0.212 5,0.136 8,0.064 4和0.018,表明技术创新、市场化改革、人力资本积累、异质性企业集聚和对外开放是促进中国经济发展方式转变的直接动力因素。进一步的研究结果显示:技术创新和异质性企业集聚通过提高前沿技术进步率和生产效率变化率以及规模报酬收益率途径,市场化改革通过提高前沿技术进步率途径,人力资本积累与对外开放通过提高前沿技术进步率和规模报酬收益率途径,促进了中国全要素生产率增长。虽然产业结构变迁、城市化、基础设施建设、区域经济政策实施和金融发展对中国全要素生产率的增长表现为负向或拖累作用,但是,产业结构变迁与城市化能够提高前沿技术进步率,基础设施建设和区域经济政策能够提高规模报酬收益率,金融发展能够提高生产效率增长率和规模报酬收益率,这5项动力因素对促进中国全要素生产率增长的正向贡献有待提高。依据上述研究结论,本文提出尽快攻克制约生产率增长的核心技术,统筹考虑产业结构升级、城市化、基础设施建设和区域经济政策实施以及加快金融领域改革等政策建议,以期加快我国经济发展方式转变进程。     

“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。