Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Environmental health in minority and other underserved populations: Benign methods for identifying lead hazards at day care centres of New Orleans

This study tests the hypothesis that exterior sources of lead dust are more important than interior sources in the route of exposure of children. Benign field methods were used to distinguish between potential and actual lead exposure problems. Utilising hand wipe and surface wipe techniques, hand and environmental samples were obtained from selected day care centres at different locations within New Orleans. Previous research has shown that soil lead is determined by location within the city. Private and public day care centres were selected from inner and outer city areas to estimate the extent of hand lead exposure. To measure and identify the extent of environmental lead exposure, hand wipes were taken before and after playing outdoors. Results of preliminary findings show that outdoor lead dust is a more potent contaminant of hands than indoor lead dust. An association was found between the amount of lead on children's hands after playing outdoors and the lead content in the exterior dust and soil. Although two girls out of forty children had exceptionally high hand lead quantities after playing outdoors, in general, boys have higher hand lead levels than girls. The private inner-city day care centre had a severe contamination problem in its outdoor play area. By contrast, the outdoor play area of the public inner city day care centre is of such a high quality that the quantity of lead dust is independent of location in the city.     

Low-temperature oxidation of coal at elevated pressures

A mathematical model is presented to describe steady-state mass transfer and oxidation processes in coal at low temperatures in a fixed-bed flow reactor. The model incorporates the effects of partial pressure of oxygen, temperature and coal particle size, and accounts for the rate of coal oxidation and the composition of oxygenated products at high pressures. This is an important development since previous models did not include the effect of pressure in their formulation. It is found that, when the partial pressure of oxygen increases the rate of oxygen consumption increases accordingly. However, the influence of partial pressure of oxygen on the rate of oxidation is less pronounced when the pressure surpasses 1 MPa. In addition the model predicts that, for a constant partial pressure of oxygen, higher rates of oxygen consumption occur at lower total pressures. The same trends are also found for the concentration of oxygenated products at the reactor outlet. It is suggested that, the variation of partial pressure of oxygen leads to different concentration levels of oxygen at the surface and within the pores of coal particles, substantially affecting the rate of oxidation.     

A very simple yet accurate solution to the thermal explosion problem

A very simple solution to the thermal explosion problem for one-dimensional solids is presented. The solution produces analytical expressions for the criticality condition. Two different solutions are used. One solution gives higher answers than those known from exact solutions and the second solution gives lower answers. This allows bracketing the expected answer with a determined tolerance. The results obtained compare quite favorably with those obtained from known exact numerical solutions. This allows the utilization of the present method for many a practical problem with an acceptable tolerances.     

地质构造对地质灾害的影响研究——以鲁甸县强烈构造变形区为例

通过近一年的野外地质调查、室内资料整理、GIS综合信息模型分析等方法,总结归纳出鲁甸县各类地质灾害的分布特征,并分析阐述了其形成条件和机理,发现地质构造对灾害的分布和形成及易发性有重大影响。     

腈纶生产叉车作业区的作业条件危险性分析

运用作业条件危险性分析法对腈纶生产叉车作业区域危险性进行分析,根据分析结果,采取相应安全对策,降低作业区域危险程度,并进一步给出建议,以确保叉车作业安全。     

采油厂化验室危险因素及对策

针对采油厂化验室的特点,对其存在的危险有害因素,从火灾爆炸、中毒、腐蚀、触电、机械伤害、人员、储存场所等方面进行了较为系统的分析,并提出了相应的对策措施。     

关注危险化学品企业绿色物流的储运安全

阐述了危险化学品物流安全储运的特点及事故危害,分析了危险化学品企业物流中的安全隐患及经济发展对危险化学品企业物流的安全储运提出的新要求,指出要用安全科学为物流科学保驾护航,以及危险化学品企业绿色物流安全储运的技术措施。     

某石化厂工作场所噪声危害现状调查分析

目的了解某石化厂噪声危害关键控制点,为企业噪声防护提供依据,减少职业病发生。方法采用现场职业卫生学调查、工作场所噪声检测、作业人员等效连续A声级检测、噪声作业分级相结合的方法进行分析。结果该企业工作场所噪声强度为51.4～100.0dB(A);主要接噪岗位每周40h的等效声级为73.2～90.8dB(A),合格率为54.5%;噪声作业分级为0级、I级,分别占59.1%和40.9%。噪声关键控制点为各种泵类、风机、压缩机、冷却器等设备。结论该企业噪声危害比较严重,需要进一步采取隔声降噪措施。     

某芳烃抽提装置职业病危害控制效果评价

对某芳烃抽提装置建设项目中存在的主要职业病危害因素进行了分析,评价其职业病危害控制效果,提出建议措施。