基于模糊理论的加油站安全评价方法研究

加油站安全状况是一个涉及多因素、多层次结构的非线性系统.本文针对加油站特点分析构建了加油站安全评价指标因素体系,并运用层次分析法在确定各评价指标因素相对权重的基础上,基于模糊数学理论,建立了加油站安全综合评价数学模型,并对该模型进行了实例验证,为加油站的安全评价提供了一种有效的综合评价方法.     

基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型

针对建筑工程安全领域中许多对象具有"内涵明确,外延不明确"的特点,本文利用模糊数学对建筑安全事故影响因素进行度量,通过层次分析法确定各影响因素权重,提出了一种基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型,解决了建筑生产中安全事故的即时预测,并通过实例给予说明,说明了模型在建筑安全事故预测中的有效性和实用性.     

基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Nitrogen evolution during the co-combustion of hydrothermally treated municipal solid waste and coal in a bubbling fluidized bed

Nitrogen evolution was studied during the co-combustion of hydrothermally treated municipal solid wastes (HT MSW) and coal in a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB). HT MSW blending ratios as 10%, 20% and 30% (wt.%) were selected and tested at 700, 800, 900 °C. Emissions of NO and N₂O from blends were measured and compared with the results of mono-combustion trials. Moreover, concentrations of precursors like NH₃ and HCN were also quantified. The results are summarized as follows: NO emissions were predominant in all the cases, which rose with increasing temperature. The blending of HT MSW contributed to the NO reduction. N₂O emissions decreased with temperature rising and the blending of HT MSW also presented positive effects. At 30% HT MSW addition, both NO and N₂O emissions showed the lowest values (391.85 ppm and 55.33 ppm, respectively at 900 °C). For the precursors, more HCN was detected than NH₃ and both played important roles on the gas side nitrogen evolution.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

不同运行模式下改良型CAST工艺处理生活污水的除磷性能

实验采用改良型CAST工艺,以生活污水为研究对象,考察了C/P、回流比及温度等不同运行模式对系统除磷性能的影响.结果表明,常温条件下进水C/P由50升至100,系统除磷率均值从15%迅速升至95.6%,除磷性能显著提高;继而降低C/P至75,除磷性能因进水碳源不足再度下降,除磷率均值为51.4%,且长期投加易降解碳源引发系统污泥膨胀并导致污泥大量流失.C/P较低情况下,回流比由25%降低至12.5%,除磷性能提高2.3倍,继续降低回流比至0,除磷性能反而下降;温度实验研究则表明,低温系统(14℃±1℃),除磷率稳定维持在90%以上,而高温短程硝化系统(27℃±1℃)除磷率仅为14.1%,可见低温更有利于系统磷的去除.吸磷小试发现,常温系统污泥以O_2、NO_3~-和NO_2~-为电子受体均能进行吸磷,而低温系统污泥能以O_2、NO_3~-为电子受体进行吸磷,高温系统污泥则仅能以O_2为电子受体进行少量吸磷.此外,实验还发现,系统短期闲置导致的污泥"饥饿"有利于系统除磷率的提高.     

生活垃圾焚烧飞灰固化体力学及重金属浸出特性

以苏州七子山生活垃圾焚烧厂产生的飞灰为研究对象,采用水泥作为固化剂,研究水泥飞灰固化体的应力应变特征及重金属浸出特性,并探讨了水泥飞灰配合比、养护时间等关键性因素对这些特性的影响。实验结果表明:较养护3 d的样品,其余养护时间的样品强度平均增长了约96.2%,而其破坏应变平均减小了56%。随着水泥含量和养护时间的增加,飞灰固化体的强度上升,而其破坏应变减小,该趋势主要归因于钙矾石(AFt)的形成促进了飞灰固化体强度的发展。较飞灰原样,飞灰固化体的重金属浸出浓度随着水泥含量、养护时间的增加而降低了38%~99%,重金属的迁移被限制,主要归因于水化硅酸钙(C—S—H)和钙矾石(AFt)的形成,以及飞灰和水泥水化反应创造的强碱性环境。     

厌氧发酵处理庆大霉素菌渣的可行性及条件优化

采用厌氧发酵处理庆大霉素菌渣,考察了含固率、接种比、接种污泥、发酵底物等因素对庆大霉素菌渣厌氧发酵的影响,并用累积净甲烷产量衡量庆大霉素菌渣进行厌氧发酵的可行性及发酵程度。试验结果证实了庆大霉素菌渣进行厌氧发酵的可行性,其中含固率和接种比对发酵的影响较大,最佳条件为含固率5%,接种比1/3;对比试验所用3种接种污泥,发现接种某造纸厂污水处理IC反应器的厌氧颗粒污泥效果最优,在最优含固率和接种比的条件下,累积净产甲烷量为28.21 m3/t;此外,试验还证实,采用不同菌渣的联合发酵表现出了明显的协同作用,在最优条件下,庆大霉素菌渣与林可霉素菌渣按1∶2的比例联合发酵的产甲烷量可达到37.5 m3/t。