地震动入射角度对地下结构地震响应的影响

考虑土-结构接触面效应和场地初始静应力影响,基于大型商用有限元软件ANSYS和粘弹性人工边界条件,采用动力松弛法的分析思路,建立了一种地震动斜入射条件下地下结构的接触非线性动力反应分析模型和方法,并讨论了地震动入射角度对地下结构动力反应的影响。结果表明:地震波斜入射使得结构的整体反应发生明显变化;随着入射角度的增加,节点的水平向应力反应明显增大,竖向应力峰值较小,增大程度也相对较小;节点的位移峰值随输入加速度峰值的增大也有一定的变化。因此,在分析近源地震作用下的地下结构动力响应时,需要考虑地震动的非一致输入问题。     

土-桩-框架结构非线性相互作用的精细数值模型及其验证

利用有限元软件ABAQUS,建立了土-桩-框架结构非线性相互作用(SSI)的二维精细有限元模型,分别采用记忆型粘塑性嵌套面模型和损伤塑性模型模拟土体和混凝土材料,采用梁单元和rebar单元模拟RC桩基及其内部纵筋,采用接触面对法模拟桩土接触效应,取得了良好的计算效果。将自由场、框架、土-桩-框架结构模型的分析结果和其它成熟的计算软件进行对比,验证了数值模型的有效性。分析发现:桩基外侧靠近承台处的土体的非线性反应很强烈,而桩基内部土体的非线性反应较小,很大程度上只是跟随群桩一起运动。由于桩土动力接触,桩顶的加速度反应可能超出上部结构,并且桩顶的加速度时程曲线上有非常明显的"针"状突变。随着地震动强度的增加,上部框架逐渐表现出单自由度体系的动力特征,加速度反应谱有从多个波峰退化为单一波峰的趋势。     

混凝土大坝抗震安全评价的发展趋向

一大批世界级超高拱坝已经和即将在我国西南和西北强地震活动区进行建设。大坝在国民经济发展中占有重要地位,大坝的抗震安全评价将成为我国地震工程研究的一个重要方向。本文对大坝抗震安全评价的研究现状进行了扼要总结,特别对大坝抗震安全有关的若干重要技术问题进行了深入讨论。其中包括抗震设防标准与地震动输入模式;混凝土材料的率敏感特性及其对大坝地震响应的影响;坝-水库-地基动力相互作用效应;强震时拱坝横缝的非线性张合效应;混凝土大坝的非线性地震响应与损伤发展的模拟等。对现有分析模型和方法的有效性及其局限性进行了评述。最后,对该课题今后进一步研究的方向提出了建议。     

Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción     

Optimal fire histories for biodiversity conservation

Fire is used as a management tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. A common objective is to avoid population extinctions due to inappropriate fire regimes. However, in many ecosystems, it is unclear what mix of fire histories will achieve this goal. We determined the optimal fire history of a given area for biological conservation with a method that links tools from 3 fields of research: species distribution modeling, composite indices of biodiversity, and decision science. We based our case study on extensive field surveys of birds, reptiles, and mammals in fire‐prone semi‐arid Australia. First, we developed statistical models of species’ responses to fire history. Second, we determined the optimal allocation of successional states in a given area, based on the geometric mean of species relative abundance. Finally, we showed how conservation targets based on this index can be incorporated into a decision‐making framework for fire management. Pyrodiversity per se did not necessarily promote vertebrate biodiversity. Maximizing pyrodiversity by having an even allocation of successional states did not maximize the geometric mean abundance of bird species. Older vegetation was disproportionately important for the conservation of birds, reptiles, and small mammals. Because our method defines fire management objectives based on the habitat requirements of multiple species in the community, it could be used widely to maximize biodiversity in fire‐prone ecosystems. Historiales de Incendios Óptimos para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad     

基于模糊神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测研究

为提高未采区煤层瓦斯含量预测的准确性,在分析研究影响煤层瓦斯含量的主要地质因素的基础上,借助模糊数学作为表达与处理不精确数据、模糊信息的手段,以神经网络作为解决问题的途径,将模糊数学与神经网络有机结合,建立基于模糊神经网络的煤层瓦斯含量预测模型。研究结果表明:模糊神经网络模型不仅能够较好地解决模糊信息难于定量表达、学习样本难于确定等问题,而且能够较准确地提取出煤层瓦斯含量与其各个影响因素之间的非线性关系。通过实例运算验证,其预测精度较神经网络模型提高了4.84%～25.79%,应用于煤层瓦斯含量预测的效果更为理想,具有良好的应用前景,可以为实施科学的矿井瓦斯管理、预防各种瓦斯事故提供理论依据。     

水稻秸秆主要组分的提取及其对芘的吸附作用

从水稻秸秆中提取主要组分--木质素、纤维素、半纤维素,利用元素分析和红外光谱对其性质进行了表征,并研究了芘在秸秆及其3种组分上的吸附行为.结果表明,各组分性质差异很大,木质素具有较高的芳香性和较低的极性,而纤维素和半纤维素具有较高的极性和脂肪性.不同组分对芘的吸附等温线均符合Freundlich方程,但吸附能力因其结构的差异而不同,木质素对芘的吸附能力最强, 吸附容量KF为5.04×104,比纤维素高100倍左右,而芘在半纤维素上的吸附能力略低于纤维素.低浓度(水相平衡浓度ce=0.01 Sw)下,秸秆对芘的吸附主要受木质素的控制,而且分配系数Kd略低于按照木质素质量分数计算的预测值,可能是由于木质素的烷基和芳香结构被周围的极性结构所覆盖.但在高浓度(ce = 0.5 Sw)时,秸秆对芘的吸附高于各组分的加和,芘向秸秆其他组分的分配作用不能忽略.芘在木质素上的吸附表现为非线性(非线性指数,n = 0.89),而其它3种吸附剂对芘的吸附更趋向于线性(n > 0.96).n值与芳香性呈负相关关系,而与极性呈正相关关系,表明芳香性导致的特殊作用力是造成吸附非线性的主要原因.有机碳标化分配系数Koc随吸附剂芳香性的增强而增大,但随极性的增强而减小.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

基于数值仿真的全表面轮毂弯曲疲劳试验及疲劳寿命分析

目的 预测钢制全表面轮毂易产生疲劳破坏的危险区域,并分析其弯曲疲劳寿命。方法 针对全表面轮毂的弯曲疲劳试验工况,建立有限元分析模型,综合考虑螺栓拧紧方式、螺栓预紧力以及材料非线性特征的影响,通过在加载轴末端建立局部坐标系,实现载荷的分解,并最终实现弯矩的动态加载。在此基础上,进行轮毂的受力分析,然后构造适用于轮毂的应力寿命曲线,并使用名义应力法进行疲劳寿命预测。结果 动态弯矩的加载方向变化会显著影响轮辐表面的应力分布特点,螺栓预紧力施加后,螺栓孔附近区域的应力显著增大,在计算中应考虑其影响。在获得各节点载荷历程后,以高应力幅和平均应力为标准,筛选出了轮毂的危险节点。结论 基于数值仿真的本型全表面轮毂弯曲疲劳试验,危险节点位置均位于轮辐通风孔的内圆角附近区域,可有针对性地对该区域进行相应的优化设计,以进一步提高轮毂的弯曲疲劳寿命。分析得到当前轮辋弯曲疲劳寿命约7.6万次,符合国家标准的要求。     

流量可调节的河流污染控制规划

利用水利工程的调节功能,适当增大枯水季节河流流量,可改善水体环境质量,减少处理费用在建立流量可调节的河流污染控制规划模型中,考虑了流速和降解速率的改变以及不同河段流量放大倍数的差别。约束条件以幂函数连乘之和的形式逼近,并应用Avriel-Williams法构造正定几何规划的数学模型。算例表明,迭代是收敛的,规划模型对于条件的变化有灵敏的反应性能。