煤气管道的震害率分析

埋地管道的地震危险性分析方法可以分为理论分析法和经验统计法。震害率是经验统计法中常用的一个概念。埋地管道在地震中破坏的主要原因是地面运动和场地土液化等引起的场地土失效，另外管线的接口类型、管材、管径等也是决定其震害的因素。在查阅相关文献的基础上，对埋地管道的震害率分析方法进行了综述，并运用经验统计法提出了便于使用的煤气管道震害率估算表达式。     

遗传算法在结构损伤识别中的应用研究

结构损伤识别是结构系统在使用期间进行监测和维护的重要组成部分,而基于动态测试技术的结构损伤识别方法又是近来研究的热点。本文提出了一种基于改进遗传算法的结构损伤识别方法,主要改进包括:浮点编码、基于标准化几何分布排名的选择策略、最优保存策略、算术交叉算子、非均匀变异算子。在常规模态分析的基础上,以节点的残余力向量构造目标函数,提出了一种用于遗传搜索优化的新的目标函数形式。利用遗传算法重点进行了噪声条件下的结构损伤定位和定量研究,并用一平面桁架模型进行了数值模拟。结果表明:提出的方法不仅能够同时进行结构的损伤定位和定量计算,而且抗噪性能很好。最后,对方法应用中存在的一些问题进行了深入分析,给出了一些有益的结论。     

给定地震烈度下供水系统受灾程度分析

本文提出了供水系统在给定地震烈度下受灾程度的一种分析方法。给出了地震后生命线工程系统受灾程度的一个定义。文中利用不同地震烈度下地下管道的统计震害率,并通过经验判断,确定各供水节点之间管道破坏的数量.根据震后各地下管段接头或管体本身对三种不同破坏状态的隶属度,判断管道破坏的位置和破坏的状态。在进行供水系统流量分析的基础上,给出各供水节点的服务状态。最后根据系统受灾程度的定义,计算供水系统的受灾程度。本文既利用了震害统计资料,又综合应用了理论分析得到的对三种不同破坏状态的隶属度。较科学地给出了供水系统地震后受灾程度的分析方法。同时还给出了生命线工程抗震设计准则.     

陇海铁路宝鸡—天水段路基的气象灾害及路基气象综合效应研究

本文对陇海铁路宝天段路基的地质地理及气象因素进行了综合分析。认为气象因素是路基灾害的主要原因，是触发机制，尤其是路基选址不当所产生的路基气象综合效应更加重了灾害程度．文章认为，设计铁路时，不但要注意气象条件的研究，同时要模拟研究路基与气象条件相互作用所产生的气象效应．     

四川盆地旱灾危险度初步研究

本文根据旱灾的特点提出了一种综合评价旱灾可能危险程度的方法,并用此法对四川盆地旱灾进行了危险度分级、分区以及防灾、减灾研究。     

关于建立地震灾害指标体系的研究：地震灾情的综合信息系统

建立地震灾害指杯体系,对全面、系统地反映灾情是十分重要的。本文对地震灾害指标和指标体系的定义及指标的类型、建立指标体系的基本原则及其结构、功能等进行了论述。     

Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

This paper utilizes the predictions ofseveral Atmosphere-Ocean GeneralCirculation Models and the Global ImpactModel to create forecasts of the globalmarket impacts from climate change. Theforecasts of market impacts in 2100 varyconsiderably depending on climate scenariosand climate impact sensitivity. The modelsdo concur that tropical nations will behurt, temperate nations will be barelyaffected, and high latitude nations willbenefit. Although the size of theseeffects varies a great deal across models,the beneficial and harmful effects areoffsetting, so that the net impact on theglobe is relatively small in almost alloutcomes. Looking only at market impacts,the forecasts suggest that while the globalnet benefits of abatement are small, thedistribution of damages suggests a largeequity problem that could be addressedthrough a compensation program. The largeuncertainty surrounding these forecastsfurther suggests that continued monitoringof both the climate and impacts isworthwhile.     

The Social Costs of Climate Change: The IPCC Second Assessment Report and Beyond

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 × CO₂). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

船舶污染事故国家损失赔偿初探

探讨了船舶溢油污染事故国家损失赔偿主体、赔偿范围和索赔方法。     

NO在甲醛介导的氧化损伤中的协同作用

为了探讨NO在甲醛介导的氧化损伤中的协同作用,用不同剂量的气态甲醛对小鼠进行连续动态染毒处理72 h后,测定小鼠脑、心和肝组织一氧化氮合酶活力和总抗氧化能力.结果显示,吸入甲醛后,小鼠的脑、心和肝组织一氧化氮合酶活力升高,总抗氧化能力下降.当甲醛浓度为0.5 mg·m-3时,脑和肝的一氧化氮合酶活力与阴性对照组相比有显著性差异(p＜0.05),脑和肝的总抗氧化能力与阴性对照组相比,有极显著性差异(p＜0.01),而心的总抗氧化能力与阴性对照组相比有显著性差异(p＜0.05).当甲醛浓度上升为3.0 mg·m-2时,脑、心和肝组织的一氧化氮合酶活力和总抗氧化能力与阴性对照组相比均有极显著性差异(p＜0.01).结果表明,过量生成的NO是甲醛导致机体氧化损伤可能的机理.