基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析

针对海洋立管破坏失效事故资料不完备及发生概率缺乏精确值的现状,提出了基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析方法。通过对现有的海洋立管破坏失效事故原因的统计分析,建立了以"海洋立管破坏失效"为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,得到了引起海洋立管破坏失效的105个各阶最小割集,确定了海洋立管发生破坏失效的主要模式。采用专家判断法与模糊集理论结合的方法对故障树进行了定量分析,评估了故障树底事件的发生概率,并计算了故障树顶事件的发生概率。通过模糊故障树分析得到了海洋立管系统的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生概率及提高系统可靠性。     

基于数值模拟的多高层钢结构火灾反应规律与破坏机理

为了分析火灾下多高层钢结构的破坏机理,考察多高层钢结构在火灾下的反应规律,基于ABAQUS建立了整体钢结构的火灾反应数值模型,对不同层数的钢结构以及相同结构不同火场位置的钢结构进行了数值模拟分析,计算了局部火灾条件下钢结构的变形与破坏过程,分析了钢结构在火灾和荷载共同作用下的破坏机理,探讨了局部火灾对整体结构的影响范围与因素,给出了钢结构在高度和荷载变化时的破坏规律并分析了引起这种破坏规律的原因。     

储罐爆炸抛射碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率研究

化工储罐爆炸产生的抛射碎片击中并破坏相邻罐体后,将引发多米诺效应。N guyen破坏概率模型认为,当罐壳受撞击后,残余壁厚小于某个临界值时就会被破坏,并假设该临界残余壁厚为定值,存在不合理之处。本文基于储罐壳体损失面积安全评价方法AP I 579,把撞击形成的复杂凹坑简化为圆锥形,分别针对圆柱储罐、球罐推导出圆锥形凹坑剩余强度系数的求解方法,并根据塑性失效理论确定了罐壳的临界剩余强度系数,由此建立了新的破坏准则。在此基础上,采用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟,建立了新的爆炸碎片对目标储罐的破坏概率模型,与N guyen模型相比,得出的破坏概率偏大,结果更为安全保守。通过对剩余强度系数与无量纲撞击深度和凹坑锥角的变化关系进行分析,证明N guyen模型中临界残余壁厚为定值的假设并不合理,而新的基于剩余强度系数计算的破坏概率更为准确合理。     

火灾后混凝土结构损伤检测方法研究与探讨

研究了火场最高温度、持续时间对混凝土材性的影响,采用逐层深入-劈拉法研究了沿深度方向的不同损伤情况。研究表明,混凝土力学性能,包括抗压强度、抗拉强度、弹性模量等,随温度升高而显著降低;抗压强度、抗拉强度均随持续时间的增长而下降。逐层深入-劈拉法试验表明,在最高受火温度基本相同的情况下,残余强度随受火时间不同而有较大的差别;受火时间短的试件强度曲线呈明显的非线性,而受火时间长的试件强度曲线则趋于线性。对于火灾后混凝土构件的检测,在钻芯法的基础上提出了多次横向劈拉法;基于混凝土受损趋势为双曲线模型的假定,提出了首波传播路径为抛物线的改进超声波检测法。     

炼化企业可燃介质泄漏初探

可燃介质泄漏是炼化企业的重要风险源,是发生火灾爆炸事故的最主要因素。通过对泄漏的分析和阐述,防治措施的理解和运用,根据炼化企业生产特点,探索可燃介质泄漏特点及危害性,并提出如何防止泄漏以及泄漏后应采取的防护措施,达到防止可燃介质工业泄漏,保障安全生产的目的。     

Genotoxicity monitoring of freshwater environments using caged crayfish (Astacus leptodactylus)

Genotoxicity of freshwater pollution was assessed by measuring DNA damage in haemocytes of caged freshwater crayfish Astacus leptodactylus by the means of Comet assay and micronucleus test, integrated with the measurements of physiological (total protein concentration) and immunological (total haemocyte count) haemolymph parameters as biomarkers of undergone stress. Crayfish were collected at the reference site (River Mre?nica) and exposed in cages for 1 week at three polluted sites along the Sava River (Zagreb, Sisak, Krapje). The long term pollution status of these locations was confirmed by chemical analyses of sediments. Statistically significant increase in DNA damage measured by the Comet assay was observed at all three polluted sites comparing to the crayfish from reference site. In addition, native crayfish from the mildly polluted site (Krapje) cage-exposed on another polluted site (Zagreb) showed lower DNA damage than crayfish from the reference site exposed at the same location indicating adaptation and acclimatisation of crayfish to lower levels of pollution. Micronuclei induction showed similar gradient of DNA damage as Comet assay, but did not reach the statistical significance. Observed increase in total haemocyte count and total protein content in crayfish from polluted environments in the Sava River also confirmed stress caused by exposure to pollution. The results of this study have proved the applicability of caging exposure of freshwater crayfish A. leptodactylus in environmental genotoxicity monitoring using Comet assay and micronucleus test.     

Flood Risk Reduction from Agricultural Best Management Practices

Best management practices (BMPs) play an important role in improving impaired water quality from conventional row crop agriculture. In addition to reducing nutrient and sediment loads, BMPs such as fertilizer management, reduced tillage, and cover crops could alter the hydrology of agricultural systems and reduce surface water runoff. While attention is devoted to the water quality benefits of BMPs, the potential co‐benefits of flood loss reduction are often overlooked. This study quantifies the effects of selected commonly applied BMPs on expected flood loss to agricultural and urban areas in four Iowa watersheds. The analysis combines a watershed hydrologic model, hydraulic model outputs, and a loss estimation model to determine relationships between hydrologic changes from BMP implementations and annual economic flood loss. The results indicate a modest reduction in peak discharge and economic loss, although loss reduction is substantial when urban centers or other high‐value assets are located downstream in the watershed. Among the BMPs, wetlands, and cover crops reduce losses the most. The research demonstrates that watershed‐scale implementation of agricultural BMPs could provide benefits of flood loss reduction in addition to water quality improvements.     

汶川"5·12"地震公路灾害分析和防治对策

"5·12"汶川8.0级特大地震中,震区公路及其设施设备遭到了极为严重的破坏,公路受损里程累计53 295 km.通过灾后现场调查资料对震区高山峡谷地带的公路破坏特征进行了剖析和归纳.将地震灾害破坏模式划分为两种:一种是与地震同步发生的地震波对公路结构本身造成的直接破坏模式,主要有公路的路面、桥梁、隧道结构本身的变形和破坏;另一种是地震诱发诸如崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、塌陷等次生灾害对公路的间接破坏作用.通过对两种破坏作用的分析,从6个方面提出了对震区高山峡谷地带的公路抗震防灾对策建议.     

一种Timoshenko裂纹梁的静力挠度分析方法

建立了一种Timoshenko裂纹梁的分析模型并且获得了闭合形式的挠度解析解。首先,在一致梁的理论框架下,通过引入δ函数模拟裂纹导致的局部柔度,建立用广义函数表示的Timoshenko裂纹梁的微分控制方程,进而得到挠度的闭合形式的解答;其次,根据线弹性断裂力学理论,利用转角及挠度突变与局部柔度系数的关系,建立Timoshenko裂纹梁的模型参数与裂纹深度的显式表示;最后,通过对裂纹深度与挠度、转角和曲率间关系的分析,总结了结构响应的损伤敏感性及其特征,并且通过与引入裂纹奇异单元的有限元结果进行比较,验证了本文所建分析模型及求解方法的正确性。研究结果表明,本文所建立的Timoshenko裂纹梁的分析模型,具有较高的计算精度和效率,在结构模型修正和损伤识别中具有良好的应用前景。     

Analysis of micronucleated erythrocytes in heron nestlings from reference and impacted sites in the Ebro basin (N.E. Spain)

The frequency of micronuclei (MN) in peripheral erythrocytes was tested for 59 heron nestlings (Ardea purpurea, Egretta garzetta and Bubulcus ibis) sampled at two areas (polluted and reference) on the River Ebro (NE Spain) and at its Delta during Spring 2006. Flow-cytometry analysis revealed higher (three- to six-fold) MN counts in samples from the most polluted site relative to samples from the reference area. Samples from the Delta showed intermediate values. Age, morphometric parameters (weight, tarsus size and bill-head length) and maturation status showed no significant differences among the different populations for each species; nor were they correlated with MN levels. The data suggest that elevated levels of MN in chicks in impacted areas reflected the chemical pollution of their nesting sites. The use of nestlings for this assay appears to be a convenient, non-destructive method to assess the impact of pollution in natural bird populations.