Accuracy assessment of a small-area method for estimating the spatial distribution of the degree of tree damage

Tree damage, gauged by the amount of defoliation, is one of the basic criteria used to determine treatments for protected and economic forests. Monitoring should include an assessment of the degree of tree damage in different spatial scales. Therefore, in addition to the commonly applied large-area methods, small-area methods should be used. The aim of the paper is to present the results of the accuracy assessment of a small-area method, proposed by Podlaski (2005) [Podlaski, R. (2005). Inventory of the degree of tree defoliation in small areas. Forest Ecology and Management, 215, 361–377], for monitoring the degree of tree damage. The degree of tree damage was shown in sub-blocks P₃ of the system of information on natural environment (SINUS). To estimate the spatial distribution of the degree of tree defoliation, survey sampling, based on simple random sampling with replacement (SRSWR), was used. The degree of damage to fir (Abies alba Mill.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) was analysed in the Święty Krzyż forest section in the Świętokrzyski National Park. The maximum total estimation errors for the proportion of trees with a degree zero of damage, and with second and third degrees of damage together (for α = 0.05) were at most 30.8% for fir and 24.3% for beech trees. For standard, small-area evaluations, these are satisfactory values. In the Święty Krzyż forest section, the number of P₃ sub-blocks with 0.00–5.00% of undamaged trees and with 80.01–100.00% of moderately- or severely-damaged trees was significantly greater for fir than for beech. These results indicate that the fir population was unhealthier than the beech group in the study area. P₃ sub-blocks of the SINUS system, in which the proportion of the healthiest trees was highest, were situated at the forest margin, bordering on meadows and arable fields (in the case of fir) and forming dense patches consisting of several sub-blocks, or occurring singly in the whole study area (in the case of beech). The results show the significant differentiation of forest tree health in small areas.     

Myths and assumptions about human-wildlife conflict and coexistence

Recent extinctions often resulted from humans retaliating against wildlife that threatened people's interests or were perceived to threaten current or future interests. Today's subfield of human-wildlife conflict and coexistence (HWCC) grew out of an original anthropocentric concern with such real or perceived threats and then, starting in the mid-1990s, with protecting valued species from people. Recent work in ethics and law has shifted priorities toward coexistence between people and wild animals. To spur scientific progress and more effective practice, we examined 4 widespread assumptions about HWCC that need to be tested rigorously: scientists are neutral and objective about HWCC; current participatory, consensus-based decisions provide just and fair means to overcome challenges in HWCC; wildlife threats to human interests are getting worse; and wildlife damage to human interests is additive to other sources of damage. The first 2 assumptions are clearly testable, but if they are entangled can become a wicked problem and may need debunking as myths if they cannot be disentangled. Some assumptions have seldom or never been tested and those that have been tested appear dubious, yet the use of the assumptions continues in the practice and scholarship of HWCC. We call for tests of assumptions and debunking of myths in the scholarship of HWCC. Adherence to the principles of scientific integrity and application of standards of evidence can help advance our call. We also call for practitioners and interest groups to improve the constitutive process prior to decision making about wildlife. We predict these steps will hasten scientific progress toward evidence-based interventions and improve the fairness, ethics, and legality of coexistence strategies.     

深井采矿热贡献率计算方法研究与实践

为了减小深井热害对井下工作人员及有序生产的危害,需要明确深井各热源放热量对深井的热害影响程度。借鉴经济学理论,提出深井采矿的热贡献率概念。结合文献调查与工程实践数据,通过入风流温湿度的季节性变化,确定不同温湿度入风流所引起深井空气自压缩传热、围岩传热、矿石冷却放热、矿石氧化放热、充填体放热、机电设备放热、人员放热热源贡献率的变化,以及入风井、平巷、工作面中的区段热贡献率及区段热贡献密度的变化。得出了不同季节的热源放热曲线以及热源贡献率、区段热贡献率、区段热贡献密度排序以指导热害治理。     

长管拖车气瓶火烧损伤分析及安全评定

结合长管拖车的结构和火灾事故特点，对瓶体常见损伤模式进行分析，并根据损伤程度的不同制定安全评定流程和相应指标。若漆层完好仅发生熏黄、熏黑，可进行正常定期检验；若漆层发生烧黑、碳化或脱落，抛丸后瓶体未发生颜色异常，则对着火部位硬度测定，合格则正常定检，不合格进行金相分析；若抛丸后瓶体颜色发生变化或微量凸起，则进行硬度测定、金相分析和水压试验；若瓶体发现明显变形，则直接判废。硬度评定合格指标为183〈HB〈269，在269〈HB〈286范围内的需结合化学成分和金相组织综合评定；金相组织以索氏体为主，不允许出现铁素体和珠光体；水压试验要求容积残余变形率小于10％。     

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted.     

腐殖酸(HA)作用下纳米氧化锌对鲫鱼的毒性效应

通过静态模拟实验,研究不同浓度(0、1、1.5、2.5 mg L-1)腐殖酸(Humic acid,HA)对纳米ZnO(5 mg L–1)毒性效应的影响.将鲫鱼暴露于HA与纳米ZnO混合体系中7 d后,分析Zn在鲫鱼体内的富集分布,及对鲫鱼脑部和肝脏自由基含量、抗氧化系统等的影响.结果显示:随HA浓度的增加,鲫鱼鳃部和肌肉中Zn的含量增高,眼、脑和肝部Zn含量则随之下降.纳米ZnO诱导鲫鱼肝脏和脑产生羟基自由基,HA浓度增大诱导鲫鱼肝脏和脑中SOD活性升高,MDA、GSH含量增加.纳米ZnO胁迫导致鲫鱼肝脏和脑氧化损伤,HA的浓度增加会促进纳米ZnO对鲫鱼肝脏和脑部的氧化损伤.研究表明HA改变了纳米ZnO在环境中的生物效应,因此在关注纳米材料的水生态安全时,不能忽视环境因子的影响.     

镉对瓯江彩鲤脏器组织蛋白质的氧化损伤作用

瓯江彩鲤(Cyprinus carpio var color)是浙江省大力推广的主要稻田养鱼鱼种,重金属污染对其生态毒理效应研究具有重要意义.针对镉胁迫瓯江彩鲤蛋白质氧化损伤效应,采用静态置换法,研究了0.412～2.059 mg·L-1浓度范围内的镉对瓯江彩鲤鳃、脑和肝脏组织蛋白质的氧化损伤作用.结果表明,瓯江彩鲤鳃...     

减振控制技术在林木风灾中的应用展望

减振控制技术在土木工程领域的应用相当广泛,是一种理论和实践上都比较成熟的技术。风灾对建筑的破坏作用相当巨大,林木(尤其是千年珍贵古树)也不可避免地会受到风灾的严重威胁。分析了当前减振控制技术在林木风灾中的实际应用较少、使用范围不广的原因,进而提出了林木风致振动及林木抗风减振的概念,并对其作了较为全面的阐述,展望了林木抗风减振技术在林业中的应用前景,指出了建立基于随机振动理论的林木抗风减振控制系统的可行性。研究内容及方法是对森林保护学科的完善与发展,是在林木风灾保护方法和措施方面开辟的另一条重要途径。     

基于柔度矩阵法的钢栈桥损伤识别

根据以往模态柔度损伤指标的研究成果,建立了模态柔度差曲率和模态柔度曲率差这2种结构损伤识别指标.通过对一个百米钢栈桥最容易发生损伤的下弦梁进行各种损伤工况下的数值模拟研究,比较分析了这2种结构损伤指标的损伤识别效果.并且在钢栈桥2根下弦梁都有损伤的情况下,对两者之间损伤识别效果的相互影响进行了研究.研究结果表明,本文提...     

基于能力谱的地震建筑破坏造成人员伤亡评估

为准确计算地震导致的人员伤亡数量,提高灾后应急保障及救援效率,根据能力谱方法计算建筑物的损坏程度,在此基础上计算相应人员伤亡数量。采用SELENA软件中能力谱方法的计算公式,利用Matlab软件编程得到建筑物破坏及人员伤亡计算程序,计算8度地震条件下建筑物不同破坏状态的概率。根据HAZUS软件中建筑物破坏和人员伤亡关系,计算地震发生在02∶00,14∶00和17∶00时不同伤亡等级的伤亡人数。计算结果表明,多数伤者为轻伤,只需基本药物及简单治疗;地震导致的钢筋混凝土建筑破坏是造成人员伤亡的主要原因;能力谱方法可为震后物质配置及震前防灾规划提供决策支持。