基于PSR模型的城市生态安全评价与贡献度研究——以铜川市为例

以铜川市为例进行城市生态安全评价和指标分析,采用压力-状态-响应模型和层次分析法构建出含有项目、因素、指标的铜川市生态安全评价体系。通过生态不安全指数定量表示城市的生态安全状况,对铜川市2014-2016年的生态安全状况进行了综合评价,并计算分析了各指标对城市总体生态不安全指数的贡献度。结果表明,铜川市的生态安全处于“临界安全”状态,并呈现逐渐向好的发展趋势。人均灌溉农田面积、地表水环境质量、环境空气质量和环保投资占GDP比例对铜川市生态不安全指数贡献度较大,应给予重视。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

State of research on the automation of HAZOP studies

For more than 30 years, multiple research groups have worked on the automation of hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies, or more specifically on the hazard identification process. So far, very few of these approaches have been used in the chemical process industry. Automatic hazard identification is a knowledge-intensive process that demands high standards with regard to the way in which knowledge is stored and made available. There are various suitable approaches to the qualitative modeling of processes and plants, which are the foundation for reasoning systems that are used for the identification of hazards. Additionally, there are quantitative methods that are based on process simulations and can be used to identify potential hazards. The investigation of the state of research demonstrates that there are sophisticated technologies for automated systems that include powerful reasoning techniques. The benefits and shortcomings of existing technologies are discussed with regard to their industrial applicability. Often, the quality of the necessary specific and generic knowledge is not sufficient to detect potential hazardous events and operational malfunctions. Computer-aided HAZOP systems should be integrated with computer-aided design- or process simulation software using common data models based on the digital representation of the process plant. In order to be used by HAZOP practitioners automated systems need to be comprehensive, serve as specialized decision support systems, and be tested and evaluated using round robin tests.     

单兵信息系统装备可靠性评估方法研究

首先介绍了士兵系统在环境适应性、信息安全、作战适应性、使用寿命等方面的需求,提出了一种可靠性设计方法,可有效解决单兵多模块信息系统可靠性评估问题,大幅提升士兵信息系统的设计效率。同时以典型士兵信息系统为例,进行了士兵结构可靠性、电气可靠性设计。     

基于高频AQI数据的关中城市群空气污染规律探索

基于高频分时AQI及各污染物浓度数据,本文使用"AQI小时指数"、首要污染物等进行统计分析并建立VAR模型对关中城市群空气污染的总体情况、日内波动规律以及城市间空气污染的关联规律做了不同层次的挖掘。研究结果表明:(1)关中城市群的空气质量整体较差,春、冬季空气污染程度明显大于夏季,空气污染的"季节效应"和"集簇性"明显,且主要表现为颗粒物污染。(2)空气质量的日内波动规律在春、冬两季表现为下半天优于上半天,夏季夜间优于白天。但在不考虑四季AQI小时指数图"相位"差异的情况下,四季空气污染的日内波动呈现出明显的相似性。(3)各城市空气污染存在明显的关联规律。城市群内一个城市空气污染的恶化会加剧其他城市的空气污染,并且对其他城市空气污染的影响峰值会在24小时之内出现,且该影响会随着空间和时间尺度的增大而逐步衰减。     

太原汾河景区跨桥断面水体污染的时空变化模式研究

选取太原汾河景区跨桥断面8个监测点,在2012年3月—2013年10月期间对河流8项水质参数进行监测,并结合派生的水体综合污染指数及主成分分析方法分析和评价景区水污染时空变化特征。结果表明,景区水质污染变化时空差异明显,上游污染相对较小,下游污染较重;春季溶解氧和p H值变化幅度最大,夏季除总氮和氨氮外,其他各污染物均有显著变化特征,秋季则以氨氮、总氮和总磷变化最为显著。主成分分析结果显示,虽然各监测点水体污染的关键影响因子不同,但总磷是太原市河流水体污染的共同解释因子。     

鄱阳湖平原区农村门塘浮游藻类群落特征及其生物学评价

于2018年—2019年在鄱阳湖区周边选取4个县（区）10个村庄的典型门塘开展浮游藻类采样调查。研究共鉴定出藻类6门83种,以蓝藻门、绿藻门和硅藻门为主;浮游藻类细胞密度全年范围为7.30×104个/L～2.78×1011个/L,年均值为1.4×1010个/L,其中夏季细胞密度最大,冬季细胞密度最小;优势种主要有小环藻、微囊藻、铜绿微囊藻、卵形隐藻等,且具有较为明显的季节演替,全年优势种为小环藻;藻类多样性指数（H′）年均值为1.49,丰富度指数（M）年均值为1.92,全年水体生物学评价结果为中度污染。     

广西柳城县农业生态环境的定量评价

建立了包括生态资源、人类驱动和系统响应3方面17个指标在内的农业生态环境定量评价指标体系,结合广西柳城县的实际情况,运用模糊综合评价模型,对当地农业生态环境进行定量评价。结果表明,柳城县农业生态环境质量属于一般水平,当地自然生态条件较好,虽受人类活动影响较大,但生态系统运行依然正常。该评价结果与当地实际情况相符,表明该评价指标体系具有较强的科学性和实用性。依据评价结果,提出了改善柳城县农业生态环境的对策和建议。     

山西芦芽山旅游影响因子及其系数与地理因子间的关系

旅游影响因子及其系数是评价旅游开发对生态环境影响程度的一种主要指标。本文采用样方调查的方法，对芦芽山旅游影响因子及其系数与地理因子进行了相关分析，结果表明：6个旅游影响因子之间的正负相关性均很好地体现了旅游活动对各因子影响的规律性，同时也说明了旅游影响因子的选择与确定以及对其赋值的正确性，旅游影响因子及其系数与自然地理因子间较小的正负相关性，说明它们几乎不受自然地理因子的作用，它们共同作用为评价旅游开发程度强弱的指标，具有一定的可行性，旅游影响因子及其系数与人文地理因子间的高相关性，完全可以说明，它们能够正确地反映旅游活动对植被环境的作用。此外，加强景区管理和旅游规划尤为迫切，图2表4参8。     

京杭运河徐州段底栖动物与水质的关系

本研究利用生物监测方法，探明了京杭运河徐州段大型底栖无脊椎动物的生物种群及其分布。运用污染生物指数（Ｇｏｏｄｎｉｇｈｔ）和生物多样性指数（Ｓｈａｎｎｏｎ）统计表达，对京杭运河徐州段进行生物综合评价，同时，指出了该水体污染，将给徐州的两个地面饮用水厂及国家南水北调工程带来威胁和危险。通过生物指标与理化指标对比，综合分析研究，冲破了理化指标的限制，说明生物指标对水体污染的评价更全面、可靠而直观。