大学生减灾教育对策研究

灾害风险认知能力是进行减灾教育的基础,受众获取灾害知识与信息的方式是影响减灾教育方法的重要因素,而受众获取灾害知识与信息的途径则会直接影响灾害内容的传递效率和效果。本文针对以上所关心的问题,为了建立合理有效的大学生减灾教育计划,应对大学生防灾减灾意识和能力不足的现状,通过问卷调查,分析和研究了来自不同生源地大学生的灾害风险认知水平、获取灾害知识和信息的方式与途径。从自然灾害风险认知的视角,通过寻找不同特性大学生群体获取减灾知识与信息的差异和趋同性,提出了现势条件下针对大学生的减灾教育对策。     

南京冬季雾霾过程中气溶胶粒子的微物理特征

2007年冬季南京雾外场试验获得了雾霾转换过程的大气气溶胶和雾滴尺度谱分布同步观测资料,根据能见度和含水量将雾霾过程划分为雾、轻雾、湿霾、霾4个不同阶段,进而分析了不同阶段粗、细气溶胶粒子的微物理特征.结果表明,4个阶段的主要发生顺序为霾←→轻雾—→湿霾—→雾—→湿霾—→轻雾←→霾,雾前湿霾阶段持续时间长于雾后.尺度2μm的粗粒子数浓度、表面积浓度和体积浓度在雾阶段均显著大于其他3个阶段,其中霾阶段浓度最低.雾滴表面积浓度和体积浓度尺度谱分布为双峰或多峰型,而轻雾、湿霾和霾阶段粗粒子谱均为单峰型.尺度0.010μm的细粒子表面积浓度谱形在雾和湿霾阶段、轻雾和霾阶段分别相似,雾和湿霾阶段数浓度占优势的尺度范围分别为0.04～0.13μm和0.02～0.14μm,轻雾及霾阶段数浓度优势粒子尺度范围均为0.02～0.06μm.从霾、轻雾、湿霾到雾的转换过程中,以0.060～0.090μm为界,小粒子减少,大粒子增多.雾霾演变过程中气溶胶粒子数浓度与均方根直径呈显著负相关关系,雾阶段气溶胶粒子数浓度最低、平均尺度最大.     

The social impact of natural hazards: a multi‐level analysis of disasters and forms of trust in mainland China

This study aimed to assess the multi‐level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals’ past experiences of disasters and province‐level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in‐group; out‐group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out‐group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009–11) positively impacted on residents’ out‐group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007–11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust.     

The role of coalitions in disaster policymaking

Disasters have the potential to act as focusing events, which can increase the amount of attention on disaster‐related problems and encourage policy action. Understanding of the political characteristics of disaster policymaking is underdeveloped, yet it is known that these features may be dissimilar to those of non‐disaster policy areas, especially concerning the coalitions of policy actors engaged in the disaster policy process. Coalitions in the realm of disaster policy processes may be less likely to form, may look very different, and may have different goals than those in non‐disaster domains. Knowledge of the emergence, composition, and purpose of coalitions in disaster policy is lacking. This paper draws on prior theory and case observations to define and describe the characteristics of a disaster policy subsystem and to build a typology of coalitions that may appear within such a subsystem, providing a foundation upon which scholars can work to study coalition dynamics in disaster policy subsystems.     

青岛近海冬季大气生物气溶胶中微生物活性研究

为了研究生物气溶胶中微生物活性水平和活性粒径分布特征,于2015年11月~2016年1月在青岛近海运用分级生物气溶胶采样器连续采集了生物气溶胶样品,并用荧光素二乙酸酯(fluorescein diacetate,FDA)水解法进行了活性测定.结果表明,采样期间青岛地区气溶胶中微生物活性水平(以荧光素钠计)范围为21.89~108.59 ng·m~(-3),平均值为59.43 ng·m~(-3).微生物活性的粒径分布呈现活性随粒径增大而增大,粗粒径(2.1μm)高于细粒径(2.1μm)的特征,在7.0μm粗粒子上所占比例最高,平均为24.06%.冬季微生物活性在一天当中变化较大,并未呈现出明显的昼间变化规律.相关性分析显示采样期间微生物活性与风速之间存在显著正相关关系(r=0.445,n=33,**P0.01),与温度、湿度和紫外线强度等气象因素以及AQI、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、NO_2、O_3、SO_2等因子无显著相关性.气团来源对微生物活性具有明显影响.晴天微生物活性平均水平为100.33 ng·m~(-3),霾天微生物活性降低,平均水平降为56.53 ng·m~(-3),随着雾-霾天持续出现,活性迅速降低至晴天水平的37.7%,可见持续雾-霾天对微生物活性的影响更大.     

Ionic composition of submicron particles (PM1.0) during the long-lasting haze period in January 2013 in Wuhan, central China

In January 2013, a long-lasting severe haze episode occurred in Northern and Central China; at its maximum, it covered a land area of approximately 1.4 million km². In Wuhan, the largest city in Central China, this event was the most severe haze episode in the 21st century. Aerosol samples of submicron particles (PM_1.0) were collected during the long-lasting haze episode at an urban site and a suburban site in Wuhan to investigate the ion characteristics of PM_1.0 in this area. The mass concentrations of PM_1.0 and its water-soluble inorganic ions (WSIIs) were almost at the same levels at two sites, which indicates that PM_1.0 pollution occurs on a regional scale in Wuhan. WSIIs (Na⁺, NH₄⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^-, NO₃^- and SO₄^2-) were the dominant chemical species and constituted up to 48.4% and 47.4% of PM_1.0 at WD and TH, respectively. The concentrations of PM_1.0 and WSIIs on haze days were approximately two times higher than on normal days. The ion balance calculations indicate that the particles were more acidic on haze days than on normal days. The results of the back trajectory analysis imply that the high concentrations of PM_1.0 and its water-soluble inorganic ions may be caused by stagnant weather conditions in Wuhan.     

北京雾霾天气生物气溶胶浓度和粒径特征

近年来北京雾霾天气频发,空气颗粒物聚集是导致雾霾天气发生的主要原因之一.作为一种重要的空气颗粒物,生物气溶胶对人体健康存在危害.本研究调查了雾霾天气时,生物气溶胶浓度和粒径分布规律;对其同空气质量指数PM2.5(AQI),环境温度和湿度间的Spearman’s相关性进行了研究;分析了冬夏两季重度雾霾天气时,生物气溶胶粒径分布规律.结果表明,生物气溶胶浓度与PM2.5(AQI)呈负相关,与环境温度呈正相关.环境湿度与细菌气溶胶浓度呈负相关而与真菌气溶胶浓度呈正相关.在冬季,最大浓度细菌和真菌气溶胶分别在4.5~7.0μm和2.1~3.3μm粒径范围内检测到,而夏季最高浓度细菌和真菌气溶胶均分布在3.3~4.5μm范围内.本研究结果将为不同雾霾天气下,评价生物气溶胶对人类健康造成的危害提供基础数据.     

杭州大气颗粒物散射消光特性及霾天气污染特征

2011年7月~2012年6月期间,对大气散射系数、颗粒物浓度及气象因子进行同步观测,以评估颗粒物散射消光对杭州市大气能见度的影响.结果表明,杭州市大气颗粒物散射系数日均值变化范围为108.4~1 098.1 Mm-1,年均值为428.62Mm-1±200.2 Mm-1.散射系数呈明显的季节变化,秋冬高,夏季低.日变化呈典型的双峰型,早峰出现在08:00,晚峰出现在21:00.PM2.5和PM10的散射效率分别为7.6 m2·g-1和4.4 m2·g-1,颗粒物散射消光占总消光比例的90.2%.灰霾和重度灰霾天气下,散射系数分别为684.4 Mm-1±218.1 Mm-1和1 095.4 Mm-1±397.7 Mm-1,达到非霾天气的2.6和4.2倍,表明颗粒物散射消光作用是导致杭州市大气能见度下降和灰霾天气发生的主要因素.     

杭州灰霾天气超细颗粒浓度分布特征

利用快速迁移率粒径谱仪(FMPS)对杭州2013年12月6～11日连续灰霾天气和灰霾消退过程超细颗粒进行监测,分析颗粒物浓度变化和粒径谱分布特征及其与气象的相关性.结果表明,颗粒物日变化特征为夜晚数浓度较高,凌晨数浓度开始降低,08:00和18:00上下班高峰期出现一个小峰值,体现出明显的交通源峰值,表明交通排放对大气污染影响较大.灰霾天气下颗粒物最高数浓度达到8.0×104cm-3.粒径谱呈双峰分布,峰值粒径分别为15 nm和100 nm,粒径在100 nm附近的粒子占大多数,粒子以爱根核模态和积聚模态为主,平均数量中位径CMD(count medium diameter)为85.89 nm.而在灰霾消退过程,颗粒物数浓度降低,峰值粒径向小粒径演变,粒径在100 nm附近的粒子逐渐减少,核模态粒子增多,大于积聚模态,平均CMD为58.64 nm.气象因素中能见度和风力与数浓度主要呈负相关,相关系数R分别为-0.225和-0.229,相对湿度与数浓度正相关,相关系数R为0.271,冬季大气比较稳定,水平温度与数浓度的相关性较小.研究灰霾天气数浓度分布和气象因素的综合影响对其形成机制及控制有重要意义.     

成都市一次重度灰霾期间大气PM2.5的自组织临界特性

2013年1—2月期间,四川省成都市出现大范围、长时间、高浓度的严重霾污染.本文运用频度统计分析和消除趋势波动分析方法,研究了成都市2013年1月25日—2月7日一次典型重度灰霾期间8个监测站点(草堂寺、人民公园、梁家巷、金泉两河、十里店、沙河铺、三瓦窑、灵岩寺)大气PM2.5小时平均浓度序列的时空演化规律.结果表明,各站点大气PM2.5的浓度波动并非随机,而在统计上服从典型的负幂律分布,同时均表现出很强的长期持续性特征.这些特征刻画了灰霾期间大气PM2.5浓度波动的宏观特征.将PM2.5浓度演化与沙堆崩塌进行类比,发现大气PM2.5演化具有自组织临界性复杂系统的基本特征.进一步根据自组织临界(SOC)理论,建立了大气PM2.5数值沙堆模型,模型算法考虑了此次灰霾期间成都市的气象因素和PM2.5的迁移扩散机制.通过对该模型的数值模拟,能够定量阐明此次重度灰霾期间成都市各监测站点大气PM2.5浓度时空波动宏观统计规律的产生根源.同时,深入讨论了该模型的自组织临界特征.模拟结果和实际结果的高度一致表明该模型真正阐明了导致PM2.5浓度时空波动的重要动力机制.SOC内禀机制是控制此次成都市灰霾期间大气PM2.5浓度演化的主要机制之一.本研究可为灰霾期间PM2.5的演化动力学提供新的研究方法.