新乡市地表水体HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险评价

为了解新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险,采集新乡市18个地表水样并测定其中HCHs和DDTs的含量,采用概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法评价了HCHs和DDTs的生态风险.结果表明,新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的质量浓度范围分别为1.28~49.2 ng·L-1和0.42~12.3 ng·L-1,与世界各地的地表水中HCHs和DDTs残留质量浓度相比属于中等污染水平.异构体比值表明HCHs污染的主要来源是林丹的使用,而DDTs的残留来源于工业品DDTs的使用.生态风险评价基于DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT的暴露浓度以及相应的毒性数据,概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法均表明了这3种有机氯农药中DDD的风险最大,其次是γ-HCHs,p,p'-DDT的生态风险最小;安全阈值法进一步表明DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT超过影响10%水生生物的概率分别为10.2%、5.94%和0.01%.     

Elevated CO2 changes the moderate shade tolerance of yellow birch seedlings

To demonstrate the existence of light thresholds in plant growth and to examine the effects of elevated CO2 on the shade tolerance of a tree species, an experiment consisting of a completely randomized design for a total of 96 yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton) seedlings was conducted with 3 light levels (2.9%, 7.7%, 26.1% of full sunlight)×2 CO2 levels (350 and 700±10 ppm) with 4 replications in a phytotron. The study proved that thresholds exist and they vary in different plant organs. In ambient CO2, the thresholds were 13.3%, 18.7%, 15.0%, 15.2%, and 15.6% of full sunlight for stem, leaf, root, total plant biomass, and the averaged value, respectively. In 700 ppm CO2, the corresponding thresholds were 16.7%, 21.3%, 18.1%, 21.7% and 19.5% for stem, leaf, root, total plant biomass, and the averaged value, respectively. The lowest threshold in the stem is an indicator of the minimal light intensity for regular growth for seedlings of this species. Below this threshold, light-stressful growth occurs. The result of a paired t-test indicated that the thresholds in elevated CO2 were significantly higher than in ambient CO2. This suggests that yellow birch will lose its moderate shade tolerance, evolutionally becoming a shade-intolerant species, and that it may become more difficult to naturally regenerate in the future.     

农业生产效率对农业用水量的影响

2016年中国农业用水量占用水总量的60%以上,水资源成为国家农业安全的重要保障,而影响农业用水量的因素较多。论文首先采用非期望产出的Super-SBM模型测度1998—2015年中国30个省份（西藏、香港、澳门、台湾缺少资料,未计算）的农业生产效率,再利用非参数核密度估计演示主要年份农业生产效率和农业用水量的动态变化,然后借鉴Hansen的门槛模型检验农业生产效率对农业用水量的“门槛效应”。结果表明：1）我国农业生产效率呈倒“U”型走势,省际间差异性减弱;农业用水量先下降后上升,省际间差距存在扩大的趋势。2）提高农业生产效率是降低农业用水量的有效途径,农业生产效率对农业用水量存在显著的“门槛抑制效应”,抑制强度呈“N”型走势。3）扩大粮食作物种植比例、增加农村劳动力和提高农村居民收入均能有效抑制农业用水量增加,而水资源禀赋、水利投资和耕地灌溉面积与农业用水量呈正相关性,农民受教育水平回归结果不显著。     

室内建筑装饰装修材料气味物质及其释放研究进展

室内建筑装饰装修材料释放的污染物可能导致气味,是消费者抱怨室内空气质量的主要原因.目前,针对室内建材气味污染物识别、定量及其释放规律的研究较少.本文总结了近年来室内气味物质的分析测定方法,梳理了已有研究中有关石膏、木质材料、油毡、地毯、塑料、橡胶、人造革、涂料和胶粘剂等9类建筑装饰装修材料释放的气味污染物的研究结果,列出了各类材料可能的致嗅物质及其嗅觉阈值,最后对加强室内气味污染研究和控制提出了建议.本研究发现,尽管不同建筑材料气味污染评价方法不统一,嗅觉测定法却是主要的评价方法.此外,虽然建筑材料释放的气味物质组成差异大,但建筑材料随时间老化和臭氧氧化时产生的气味物质主要为含氧基团的化合物,如醛、酮和酸等.     

四溴双酚A和镉复合污染对不同生物体的安全阈值

以赤子爱胜蚓（Eisenia fetida）、斑马鱼（Zebrafish）作为受试生物,进行急性毒性试验,死亡率、超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）、过氧化氢酶（CAT）为效应指标,采用基准剂量（BMD）法推导四溴双酚A （TBBPA）和镉（Cd）单一及联合暴露对不同生物体的安全阈值.结果表明,在本研究的试验剂量范围内,蚯蚓、斑马鱼TBBPA、Cd暴露剂量与死亡率、SOD、CAT活性效应指标存在明显剂量-效应关系.单一暴露下,CAT、SOD活性指标最敏感,蚯蚓和斑马鱼的TBBPA安全阈值分别为0.95,0.44mg/L,Cd安全阈值分别为71.17,0.42mg/L.联合暴露下安全阈值小于单一暴露.蚯蚓、斑马鱼TBBPA安全阈值分别为0.33,0.024mg/L,Cd为6.45,0.176mg/L.     

基于概率方法的中国居民饮水途径砷暴露健康风险评估

通过文献调研收集我国3类主要饮用水类型的总砷浓度.通过回归模型获得不同年龄段人群饮水暴露参数分布模式.基于概率方法评价不同水体和不同人群由于砷暴露造成的致癌风险和非致癌风险.结果发现,全国各类水体的总砷浓度几何均值为（13.0±38.1）μg·L^-1.其中饮用水中的最高砷浓度出现在内蒙古,广西和山西饮用水中也有较高总砷检出.与相关标准中的砷浓度标准相比,未经处理的井水和未经处理的地表水源水超标的概率分别为23.2%和18.4%.非致癌风险评估发现,井水和地表水源水饮用人群超过单日暴露剂量阈值的概率分别为24.0%和19.5%.致癌风险评估发现,我国全人群终生饮水砷摄入导致的致癌风险（LCR）中位数为3.22×10^-5,处于可接受水平.其中18~45岁人群有最大的风险贡献,LCR中位数为1.37×10^-5.井水和地表水源水饮用人群LCR仍有一定概率超过美国环保署（US EPA）规定的严重风险水平.综上所述,我国居民存在潜在的饮用水砷暴露健康风险,需要进一步加强饮用水砷污染控制以降低砷引发的健康风险和保障饮水安全.同时建议加强风险阈值研究以期真实反映砷暴露风险,为保护居民健康提供科学依据.     

制定无组织排放恶臭物质浓度控制标准值的技术路线探讨

本文参考国外资料、结合我国国情,论述了制定无组织排放恶臭物质浓度控制标准值的技术路线。并以氨为实例,就其嗅阈值的确立,及六级强度等级,人群可适应性实验,阐明了控制标准值确立的方法和程序。确立的8种恶臭物质的控制标准,均基于大量实验数据,具有较好的实用性和科学性。      

北京市北运河水系底栖动物群落与水环境驱动因子的关系及水生态健康评价

底栖动物可反映多种生态威胁对水环境的积累效应,与河流水生态系统健康状态密切相关.本研究以北京市典型流域北运河流域为例,基于2015年夏季野外采样调查34个站点水生态数据,对底栖动物群落特征进行分析,采用典型对应分析筛选得到水质驱动因子,利用临界点指示类群分析方法探究关键影响因子的指示物种及其阈值,并基于底栖动物完整性指...     

我国南方水稻产地镉环境质量类别划分技术

针对我国耕地质量类别划分技术及方法体系不完善的现状,提出应用物种敏感性分布法(SSD)基于不同保护率建立"优先保护类、安全利用类和严格管控类"的土壤镉划分阈值,并对其合理性和科学性验证.结果表明,我国南方水稻产地土壤p H、土壤有机质(SOM)和阳离子交换量(CEC)对水稻富集镉的影响均达到了极显著水平(P <0.01),并由其构建的三因子生物有效性模型可解释水稻富集系数62.0%的变异;水稻对镉的SSD曲线表明,不同水稻品种对镉的敏感性差异明显,主要与其基因型相关;依据SSD曲线基于保护率为80%和5%推导出我国南方水稻产地"优先保护类和严格管控类"的土壤镉划分阈值分别为0.26 mg·kg^-1和1.67 mg·kg^-1,且当土壤镉≤0.26 mg·kg^-1时划分为优先保护类耕地,土壤镉≥1.67 mg·kg^-1时划分为严格管控类耕地,土壤镉介于0.26～1.67 mg·kg^-1时划分为安全利用类耕地,并通过134组独立数据验证其具有一定合理性和科学性.本研究表明应用S...     

Analysis of motorcycle accidents using association rule mining-based framework with parameter optimization and GIS technology

IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis.