CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY EVOLUTION AND OVERBANK FLOW IN THE GEORGIA PIEDMONT1

ABSTRACT: Historic changes in stream channel morphology were investigated in the Georgia Piedmont to better understand the hydrologic processes and functioning of the region's riverine systems. USGS gaging station data and channel geomorphology data were collected from thirty study sites in the Upper Oconee River Basin for flood frequency analysis. Historic and modern (i.e., present-day) channel capacity discharge (i.e., overbank flow) was calculated using Manning's equation and historic channel cross-section records. The recurrence interval for overbank flow was estimated for each site from flood frequency data. Results indicate that channel expansion has occurred throughout the basin, especially in upper reaches. Recurrence intervals for modern overbank events were variable and generally high ranging from < 2 to > 500 years for first to third order streams. They were less variable and lower for fourth and fifth order streams, ranging from < 2 to 3 years. Potential depositional thresholds were identified that exemplify the complex response of sediment distribution patterns throughout the basin. Results indicate overbank flows occur less frequently now than they once did due to historic accelerated sedimentation and subsequent channel expansion. One application of these findings is that these basin processes are likely applicable across the region and may impact the hydrologic functioning of associated Piedmont riverine wetlands that depend on flooding regimes.     

福建地磁总强观测资料综合处理与讨论

运用AUTOCAD软件对福建省龙岩、永安、邵武、漳州、同安、泉州六个台站的1982年1月1日至2002年12月31日总强观测资料,进行处理分析.所得结果不仅表明六个台站的磁场变化特征较为明显,同步变化具有很强的吻合性,而且客观地反映了各台站小范围背景场磁场干扰、仪器工作状态不佳、少量数据质量差、数据连续性差等问题.本文还对数据的使用、台湾强震群与福建磁场变化特征提出了分析意见.这些在很大程度上可以为数字化观测数据的分析使用提供借鉴,为进一步提高和完善观测质量提供参考依据.     

中国近代大震系列与预测

本文研究了中国近代的三列大震系列.在它们发生之前都出现过强震系列.在地震预报中,使用强震系列与大震系列及其公式:Ni'=Ni-k'/(1-b)k可以预报强震与大震.利用强震系列的相关性,预测大震系列也是有益的.     

"How near were we to Ruine": the effects in England of the earthquake of 8th September 1692

This paper attempts to Illustrate some of the advantages and disadvantages of using contemporary evidence in the study of historical seismicity. The event considered here is doubly significant—it was a large event by British standards, as well as arguably the best documented earthquake to have occurred before the mid-eighteenth century. At a time when an interdisciplinary approach to historical seismicity is still in its infancy this paper identifies those areas where the available sources can assist in the evaluation of early macroseismic data.     

A cluster-based decision support system for estimating earthquake damage and casualties

This paper describes a Decision Support System for Disaster Management (DSS-DM) to aid operational and strategic planning and policy-making for disaster mitigation and preparedness in a less-developed infrastructural context. Such contexts require a more flexible and robust system for fast prediction of damage and losses. The proposed system is specifically designed for earthquake scenarios, estimating the extent of human losses and injuries, as well as the need for temporary shelters. The DSS-DM uses a scenario approach to calculate the aforementioned parameters at the district and sub-district level at different earthquake intensities. The following system modules have been created: clusters (buildings) with respect to use; buildings with respect to construction typology; and estimations of damage to clusters, human losses and injuries, and the need for shelters. The paper not only examines the components of the DSS-DM, but also looks at its application in Besiktas municipality in the city of Istanbul, Turkey.     

Disasters and ‘conditions of possibility’: rethinking causation through an analysis of earthquakes in Nepal

What causes a disaster's aftermath? Scholars have increasingly turned to historical approaches that link outcomes to pre-disaster sociopolitical dynamics. Disasters lead to ‘critical junctures’ that ‘trigger’ events that unfold in the wake of the initial phenomenon. This paper argues that the ‘critical junctures’ paradigm shares limitations with ‘path dependency’ theory from which it is derived, namely a tendency towards historicism—a functionalist teleology better able to explain continuity than change. As an alternative, this analysis draws on Michel Foucault's understanding of ‘conditions of possibility’ as a way of rethinking agency/causation, moving away from individual subjects, events, or even historical conditions towards, instead, the new, radically destabilised ‘epistemological field’ emerging in the disaster's aftermath. This paper examines a series of devastating earthquakes in Nepal to consider how post-disaster ‘epistemological fields’ present new ‘conditions of possibility’ within which new ideas, actions, and outcomes become thinkable and possible in ways that pre-disaster historical conditions could not have predicted.     

历史性转变——20o6中国环境保护评述

2006年,从中央到地方都大幅度强化了环境保护的施政力度。中央提出了环境保护与经济增长要并重、同步和综合的要求,这被称为“环境保护的历史性转变”。与此同时,国家出台了20多项以环境保护为重要内容或与环境保护有关的产业政策和其他经济政策。新成立了11个环境保护和核安全的区域督查机构,层层下达了主要污染物排放消减指标。各地也把主要精力放在了推动新型工业化和城市化进程上,出台了大量加强和支持环境保护的经济政策和管理措施。     

Comparative analysis of permanent post-disaster houses constructed in Çankırı and Dinar

A major challenge after an earthquake is how to establish a new residential area of a similar or even improved standard for people who have suffered psychological, social and economic impacts and witnessed significant damage to the physical environment. As part of a research project conducted in 2005 and 2008, questionnaires were administered to the permanent occupiers of post‐disaster houses in the Turkish cities of Çank?r? and Dinar. They were asked to compare the comfort levels and other characteristics of the houses in which they now reside with those of the traditional houses in which they used to live. The survey revealed that such aspects do not differ between the two types of accommodation. However, differences were identified between the two areas under review (Çank?r? and Dinar). In addition, average scores for traditional houses were higher than those for post‐disaster houses in both places.     

Perceptions of risk characteristics of earthquakes compared to other hazards and their impact on risk tolerance

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis‐à‐vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.