南京城市全面跨江发展初探

南京是我国长江尾闾著名的历史文化名城,自周元王四年（公元前472年）始筑“越城”至今已有2 482 a的历史。在南京城市发展过程中,由于自然、政治、经济等因素的综合影响,历代在此建设城廓,都以江南向西北开口的簸箕形盆地作为基础,而向北跨江发展自历史上以来都非常缓慢。在实地踏勘研究区和梳理分析历史地理资料的基础上,重建了南京城市跨江发展的历史过程,划分出4个发展时期：沿江发展期、跨江发展的萌芽期、跨江发展的初期、跨江发展的全面和加速推进期。基于城市跨江发展的原因与机制等理论,分析论证了当前南京选择全面和加速推进跨江发展的可行性。依据国内外跨江发展的经验教训,提出南京实施全面和加速推进跨江发展的主要策略是：(1)加快构建合理的跨江交通格局;(2)处理好江北新市区与南京城市整体功能的互补性与独立性关系;(3)做到空间布局优化与开发重点突出并举,江北老城镇保护性改造与新市区开发建设并重;(4)充分利用大型产业项目的非树型效应;(5)实施沿江岸段的合理功能分区与生态环境综合整治;(6)省市政府提供持续的政策支持,完善体制机制改革。〖 〖HT5”     

Investigation of accidents involving powered two wheelers and bicycles – A European in-depth study

Introduction: The number of road fatalities have been falling throughout the European Union (EU) over the past 20 years and most Member States have achieved an overall reduction. Research has mainly focused on protecting car occupants, with car occupant fatalities reducing significantly. However, recently there has been a plateauing in fatalities amongst ‘Vulnerable Road Users’ (VRUs), and in 2016 accidents involving VRUs accounted for nearly half of all EU road deaths. Method: The SaferWheels study collected in-depth data on 500 accidents involving Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) and bicycles across six European countries. A standard in-depth accident investigation methodology was used by each team. The Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) was used to systematically classify accident causation factors. Results: The most common causal factors related to errors in observation by the PTW/bicycle rider or the driver of the other vehicle, typically called ‘looked but failed to see’ accidents. Common scenarios involved the other vehicle turning or crossing in front of the PTW/bicycle. A quarter of serious or fatal injuries to PTW riders occurred in accidents where the rider lost control with no other vehicle involvement. Conclusions: Highly detailed data have been collected for 500 accidents involving PTWs or bicycles in the EU. These data can be further analyzed by researchers on a case-study basis to gain detailed insights on such accidents. Preliminary analysis suggests that ‘looked but failed to see’ remains a common cause, and in many cases the actions of the other vehicle were the critical factor, though PTW rider speed or inexperience played a role in some cases. Practical Applications: The collected data can be analyzed to better understand the characteristics and causes of accidents involving PTWs and bicycles in the EU. The results can be used to develop policies aimed at reducing road deaths and injuries to VRUs.     

湖北省历史时期洪、旱灾害统计特征分析

基于近2000年来的历史资料,对湖北省历史时期洪、旱灾害的统计特征及其演变规律进行了分析.结果表明:湖北省历史时期的洪、旱灾害经历了"少灾时期、增多时期与多灾时期"3个阶段,灾害出现的频率和影响的范围均呈增大趋势;洪旱灾害的空间分布呈现"洪水连江,干旱依山"的特点;洪旱灾害发生的季节集中性较强,中、大区域性洪水灾害集中在6-7月的梅雨季节,具有"梅汛"的特点,而旱灾以夏旱为多、春秋旱次之,严重的旱情多具有跨季节性的特点;总的来看,历史时期的洪旱灾害系交替进行,洪灾多于并重于旱灾.     

中国历史洪水和洪水灾害的自然历史特征

在较长的时段内,考察分析洪水和洪水灾害的自然历史特征,并凭借现代技术手段来揭示其发生、演变的规律,这是一项有开创意义和应用价值的工作。本文提出了历史洪水和洪水灾害自然历史特征的概念,并就其实际应用的领域和途径进行了探讨。     

Environmental solutions sparked by environmental history

Environmental solutions require a decision-making process that is ultimately political, in that they involve decisions with uncertain outcomes and stakeholders with conflicting viewpoints. If this process seeks broad alignment between the government and public, then reconciling conflicting viewpoints is a key to the legitimacy of these decisions. We show that ecological baselines can be particularly powerful tools for creating a common understanding for public support (legitimacy) and conformity to new rules or regulations (legality) that enable the solution. They are powerful because they move the discussion of solutions from the abstract to the concrete by providing a conceptual model for a common expectation (e.g., restoring habitat). They provide narratives of the past (ecological histories) that readjust the future expectations of individuals on how to perceive and respond to new policy. While ecological baselines offer scientists benchmarks for reinstating ecological functions, they also normalize public and government discussion of solutions. This social normalization of public issues may assist government policy and influence social views, practices, and behaviors that adopt the policy. For science to more effectively inform conservation, we encourage interdisciplinary thinking (science- and human-centered) because it can provide public support and government legitimacy for investing in environmental solutions.     

Agency and structure: a grounded theory approach to explain land-use change in the Mindo and western foothills of Pichincha,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

Although life and land decisions are individual, driven by perceptions of reality, they reflect broader social processes. This research aims to understand relevant land-use change processes and the context within which land-use change occurs in the study area. For this, we employ grounded theory techniques and procedures to analyze narratives and life history interviews. Based on these narratives, we re-construct past land-use changes. Additionally, we identify structural conditions that drive change, several dimensions of change, including cultural-cognitive dimensions, and future discourses. The identified structural conditions motivate changes in concepts, actions, and practices, in land-use, and institutions, eventually leading to generational changes. Further research is needed to examine how the so-called structural conditions producing change varies in different settings and contexts. These findings can provide insight into certain patterns and knowledge that may contribute to community planning, policy design, and the conception of sustainable solutions with more grounded knowledge.     

事故调查报告中事故原因分析的改进*——基于企业事故案例学习视角

为进一步提高我国事故调查报告的质量,更好地满足企业对事故案例学习的需要,通过案例分析事故调查报告中事故原因部分存在的问题及其原因,并在此基础上提出采用事故致因理论来改进事故调查报告的思路;应用24Model改进天嘉宜化工有限公司“3·21”特别重大爆炸事故的事故原因分析,以此来验证本文思路的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明,使用事故致因理论能够更加科学地归纳事故原因,增强措施的针对性和可操作性,可有效改善事故调查报告的质量。     

国家重点文物旅游资源的开发利用--以河南省为例

河南是我国重点保护文物（以下简称重点文物）大省，众多的古建筑、古遗址、古墓葬是河南旅游的主要吸引物。文章从分析了河南重点文物的开发现状，发现其文物旅游的优势和劣势，并结合均衡开发、循序渐进、三个效益并行、尊重历史剖面四个原则，提出了文物开发的五个策略：理顺管理体制、实现开发主体多元化、发挥自身优势突出特色旅游、加强基础设施建设和人才培养、加大营销力度、把科技引入文物开发。     

GENERATION OF SYNTHETIC AND MISSING CLIMATIC DATA FOR PUERTO RICO1

ABSTRACT: Climatic data such as temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed have been widely used to estimate evapotranspiration. Moat of the solar radiation data and portions of the relative humidity data are either not available or missing from the records in Puerto Rico. Depending upon the availability and data characteristics of records, three methods (including a regression technique, an averaging of historical data, and a regional average) were used to generate missing data, and a time series analysis was used to synthesize a series of climatic data. The limitations and applicability of each method are discussed. The results showed that the time series analysis method can be successfully used to synthesize a series of monthly solar radiations for several stations. The regression technique and the regional average can be successfully applied to generate missing monthly solar radiation data. The regression technique and the averaging of historical data have been satisfactorily used to interpolate missing monthly relative humidity. The explained variance (R²) varied from 0.68 to 0.88, which are both significant at the 0.05 level of significance.     

中国雪灾及相关研究述评

雪灾作为自然灾害的一种,相对于其他灾种,发生的范围和频率较小。历史上发生的雪灾有记载的200多次,其中重大的上百次。学界有关雪灾问题的研究存在着很大的不足：一是有关研究大都包涵在自然灾害之中作为灾种的一部分进行简单论述,而没有单独作为一个专题进行更为详实的研究;二是近30年来,学界多从气象学角度出发,对雪灾的形成机制及原因等方面进行分析,而从社会学与史学的角度进行研究的成果极其少见。