基于历史记录的赤潮灾害危险性区划方法的构建与应用

利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间...     

Occupational injury and accident research: A comprehensive review

In this paper, a comprehensive review of the concepts of occupational injury and accident causation and prevention is presented. Starting with hazard identification, the issues on risk assessment, accident causation, and intervention strategies are discussed progressively. The distinctiveness and overlaps in accident and injury research are highlighted. Both empirical research in terms of hypotheses tested and theoretical research such as accident causation models are compared and contrasted. Finally, based on the critical appraisal of the comprehensive review, future research directions on occupational injury research are delineated.     

事故致因理论:缺陷塔模型

为建立新的事故模型,首先以马克思主义的唯物辩证法为指导,针对事故内因、外因确定5对连锁因果关系,引入生产、事故、物质、能量、作业场所、安全管理、企业、政府和社会等安全要素,与故障树分析方法密切结合,建立缺陷塔模型(FTM)。然后,借鉴计算机科学面向对象编程的理念,定义塔体、塔段、塔壁、缺陷缝、管道、阀门共6种对象,规定了对象的主要属性,实现模型的三维可视化。     

Tenure diversity and dependent causation in the effects of regional integration on land use: evaluating the evolutionary theory of land rights in Acre,Brazil

In the complex causation behind land change, dependent causation can play a central role. A case in point concerns land tenure diversity, where contrasting use rules for different lands may affect the impacts of other drivers on land use outcomes. We therefore evaluate the evolutionary theory of land rights (ETLR), which assumes homogeneous private property rights, in order to test for dependent causation due to distinct use rules among various types of private lands. In the present analysis, we focus on whether land tenure type modifies the effects of highway infrastructure on key outcomes highlighted in the ETLR framework. We take up the case of rural settlements along the Inter-Oceanic Highway in the eastern part of the Brazilian state of Acre, where there is considerable land tenure diversity. Findings from multivariate models for land titling, the castanha nut harvest, and cattle pasture all indicate that the effects of infrastructure depend on land tenure type. These results confirm the importance of dependent causation behind land use and bear implications for theory on land change, infrastructure impacts, and land system science.     

雪冰中持久性有机污染物的研究进展

雪冰是温带和极地生态系统中最重要的环境组份,它们不仅影响了能量平衡和水循环,而且也能直接影响当地、区域以及全球环境范围内的化学行为。降雪能很有效地从大气中清除颗粒和气相的POPs。本文简要介绍了雪冰环境中持久性有机污染物研究的科学意义,着重综述了POPs在极地和高海拔地区雪冰中的环境化学行为和雪冰中POPs的历史环境记录,并讨论了雪冰中POPs浓度的不确定性。持久性有机污染物从大气到冰川的过程并不容易理解,半挥发性有机化合物在沉积后的浓度存在不确定性。有机物沉积在积雪中后,随着积雪的老化和变形,它们能够随着融水迁移或者又挥发到大气中。全文最后对未来雪冰中POPs的研究需要进行了展望,并提出四点今后需加强研究的内容。由于青藏高原位于人类居住的低纬度高海拔地区,可能在POPs全球输送过程中起到重要的作用,今后需加强青藏高原地区雪冰中持久性有机污染物的研究;有机污染物在雪冰中主要是通过光化学反应进行转化,雪冰中有机污染物的光化学反应机理研究必须引起重视;随着雪冰样品前处理和分析测试技术的提高,将会推动雪冰中痕量POPs的环境变化记录研究的发展;通过建立模型模拟预算和评价POPs在积雪中的物理化学行为,也可以利用模型模拟POPs在老雪中的命运,确定其在融水中成比例蒸发和渗浸的速率。     

基于贝叶斯网络模型的船舶搁浅事故分析

根据海上交通安全事故统计数据显示,船舶搁浅事故是主要的海上交通安全事故之一。为了研究船舶搁浅事故的发生机理,收集了我国东部海域部分海事局辖区的船舶搁浅事故样本。首先从人为因素、环境因素和船舶因素三方面分析导致船舶搁浅事故的原因,确定网络节点。然后找出每起搁浅事故的事故链,并建立船舶搁浅事故贝叶斯网络模型。再对建立的贝叶斯网络模型进行仿真,选取21起船舶搁浅事故对建立的模型进行验证,确定模型的有效性。最后,利用HUGIN软件找出船舶搁浅事故各影响因素的致因概率,得到导致船舶搁浅事故的致因链。在人为因素方面,瞭望不当和不熟悉航道情况占据的比例最高;在船舶因素方面,舵机设备故障对船舶搁浅事故影响最大;在环境因素方面,风/浪/流对船舶搁浅事故影响最大。     

汞的树木年轮化学研究进展

由于可以有效揭示重金属污染的时间变化序列,近年来,树木年轮被广泛应用于环境重金属污染的历史追溯。年轮化学技术也被应用于示踪某地区的汞污染历史,本文系统介绍了利用树木年轮化学对汞污染积累历史进行追溯研究的相关研究成果,包括样品采集与处理、含量测定及数据分析,并对木质汞来源进行了讨论,最后对汞年轮化学研究的未来发展进行了展望。     

基于高山湖泊沉积记录的贵州北部大气重金属污染历史重建

大气重金属污染是全球面临的主要环境问题之一,受监测资料的局限,目前我国在大气重金属污染的历史过程及其对偏远地区地表环境的影响方面的研究还较为薄弱.通过对贵州北部梵净山顶沉积物中金属元素含量和Pb同位素的分析,研究了近400年来Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn等大气污染的历史过程.公元约1800年之前,沉积物中金属元素含量较为稳定; 1800年以来,Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn等含量总体呈先增加后降低的趋势;而Cd、Hg和Pb含量逐渐增加.富集系数与207Pb/206Pb结果表明,Cd、Pb和Hg是典型的大气污染元素; Hg污染开始于公元1880年前后,Cd和Pb污染开始于20世纪50年代,近年来污染程度均逐渐加重.沉积记录反映的贵州北部梵净山地区目前大气Hg污染水平与我国东部其他远离人类活动直接影响的地区相当,但远高于欧美及青藏高原等地区;不同地区间Cd与Pb污染水平具有较大的差异.梵净山地区大气Hg污染可能受到全球和区域污染排放的共同影响,Cd和Pb污染主要来自于区域有色金属冶炼及燃煤等释放.     

Dynamic catch trends in the history of recreational spearfishing in Australia

The sustained decline in marine fisheries worldwide underscores the need to understand and monitor fisheries trends and fisher behavior. Recreational fisheries are unique in that they are not subject to the typical drivers that influence commercial and artisanal fisheries (e.g., markets or food security). Nevertheless, although exposed to a different set of drivers (i.e., interest or relaxation), recreational fisheries can contribute to fishery declines. Recreational fisheries are also difficult to assess due to an absence of past monitoring and traditional fisheries data. Therefore, we utilized a nontraditional data source (a chronology of spearfishing publications) to document historical trends in recreational spearfishing in Australia between 1952 and 2009. We extracted data on reported fish captures, advertising, and spearfisher commentary and used regression models and ordination analyses to assess historical change. The proportion of coastal fish captures reported declined approximately 80%, whereas the proportion of coral reef and pelagic fish reports increased 1750% and 560%, respectively. Catch composition shifted markedly from coastal temperate or subtropical fishes during the 1950s to 1970s to coral reef and pelagic species in the 1990s to 2000s. Advertising data and commentary by spearfishers indicated that pelagic fish species became desired targets. The mean weight of trophy coral reef fishes also declined significantly over the study period (from approximately 30–8 kg). Recreational fishing presents a highly dynamic social–ecological interface and a challenge for management. Our results emphasize the need for regulatory agencies to work closely with recreational fishing bodies to observe fisher behavior, detect shifts in target species or fishing intensity, and adapt regulatory measures. Tendencias Dinámicas de Captura en la Historia de la Pesca Recreativa con Arpón en Australia     

Using historical ecology to reassess the conservation status of coniferous forests in Central Europe

Forests cover approximately one‐third of Central Europe. Oak (Quercus) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) are considered the natural dominants at low and middle elevations, respectively. Many coniferous forests (especially of Picea abies) occur primarily at midelevations, but these are thought to have resulted from forestry plantations planted over the past 200 years. Nature conservation and forestry policy seek to promote broadleaved trees over conifers. However, there are discrepancies between conservation guidelines (included in Natura 2000) and historical and palaeoecological data with regard to the distribution of conifers. Our aim was to bring new evidence to the debate on the conservation of conifers versus broadleaved trees at midelevations in Central Europe. We created a vegetation and land‐cover model based on pollen data for a highland area of 11,300 km² in the Czech Republic and assessed tree species composition in the forests before the onset of modern forestry based on 18th‐century archival sources. Conifers dominated the study region throughout the entire Holocene (approximately 40–60% of the area). Broadleaved trees were present in a much smaller area than envisaged by current ideas of natural vegetation. Rather than casting doubt on the principles of Central European nature conservation in general, our results highlight the necessity of detailed regional investigations and the importance of historical data in challenging established notions on the natural distribution of tree species.