Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning‐aggregation fishery

Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological process for many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline of exploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlook reductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish‐spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) spawning‐aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled from historical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catch rates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine‐scale analysis of catch and effort data spanned 103 years (1911–2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at a rate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort masked the sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing for improvements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from 119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerel FSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which a contraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit information on FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species.     

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species’ long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075–21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June–September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.     

安全史学的方法论研究

从历史研究发展和安全科学发展的角度分析安全史学研究的重要性和必要性。对安全史学的定义、安全史学认识系统结构、安全史学研究的特征进行综述,详细分析安全史学的研究对象及其分类。基于史学方法论原则和安全科学的方法论原则,总结了安全史学的方法论原则。分析安全史学研究的一般方法即归纳方法、比较方法和综合方法在安全科学研究中的应用,从安全史学研究资料的搜集和分析过程提出安全史学方法学。综合相关文献资料,结合马斯洛层次需求理论和系统论,提出基于人的需求层次的安全史学系统研究法及其应用,为安全史学研究的开展提供理论依据。     

Habitat-tree protection concepts over 200 years

The protection and sustainable management of habitat trees is an integral part of modern forest nature conservation concepts such as retention forestry. Bats, cavity-nesting birds, arboreal marsupials, and many different saproxylic species depend on habitat trees and their great variety of microhabitats and old-growth characteristics. With a focus on insights from temperate forests, we traced the development of habitat-tree protection over 200 years. The idea was first conceptualized by foresters and natural scientists in the early 19th century. At that time, utilitarian conservation aimed to protect cavity trees that provided roosts and nesting holes for insectivorous bats and birds. By the second half of the 19th century, habitat-tree protection was well known to foresters and was occasionally implemented. Knowledge of the protection of large old trees, a special kind of habitat tree, for sociocultural and aesthetic reasons developed similarly. But, many foresters of that time and in the following decades fundamentally rejected protection of habitat trees for economic reasons. Beginning in the 1970s, forest conservation and integrative forest management became increasingly important issues worldwide. Since then, the protection of habitat trees has been implemented on a large scale. Long-term views on the development of conservation concepts are important to inform the implementation of conservation today. In particular, historical analyses of conservation concepts allow the testing of long-term conservation outcomes and make it possible to study the resilience of conservation approaches to changing social or ecological conditions. We encourage all conservation ecologists to assess the practical and conceptual impact of the initial ideas that led to modern conservation concepts in terms of long-term biodiversity conservation.     

Formation and Evolution of Ancient Lakes on South Coast Plain of Laizhou Bay

1INTRODUCTIONAncient lakes are lakes that once existed in history,butnow have died out.As a kind of land water and geomorphicconfiguration,the formation and evolution of ancientlakes were closely linked with the variance of geographicenvironment.The south coast plain of Laizhou Bay is aplain extending from the estuary of the Xiaoqing Riverin the west to the estuary of the Jiaolai River in the east.There were once some lakes on the plain in history,suchas Judian Lake,Qingshuibo Lake,an…     

Causation of Severe and Fatal Accidents in the Manufacturing Sector

The main purpose of this paper is to identify the most frequent causes of accidents in the manufacturing sector in Andalusia, Spain, to help safety practitioners in the task of prioritizing preventive actions. Official accident investigation reports are analyzed. A causation pattern is identified with the proportion of causes of each of the different possible groups of causes. We found evidence of a differential causation between slight and non-slight accidents. We have also found significant differences in accident causation depending on the mechanism of the accident. These results can be used to prioritize preventive actions to combat the most likely causes of each accident mechanism. We have also done research on the associations of certain latent causes with specific active (immediate) causes. These relationships show how organizational and safety management can contribute to the prevention of active failures.     

“新四化”协同发展倍增效用分析

在新的时代背景下,诠释了农业现代化、新型工业化、新型城镇化和信息化的基本内涵.基于循环累积因果关系理论论证了“新四化”之间的互动关系,构建了协同发展状态下的“新四化”互动关系模型,分析了“新四化”之间的协同发展对社会经济发展的倍增效应,指出政府部门在“新四化”协同发展中的重要性.     

A Non-confrontational Approach to Socially Responsible Air Pollution Control: The electoral experience of Kitakyushu

Social scientists have described Japan's urban anti-pollution protests in the 1960s as a national phenomenon. However, in Kitakyushu, Japan's most polluted industrial city at that time, no distinct citizens' movement developed. Because local politics and economics were so dominated by large industry, its citizens were reluctant to directly challenge these industries. Instead, local women's groups studied local pollution problems and presented their general findings to the public. These activities raised public awareness and resulted in increased support for local leftist politicians because leftist administrations had succeeded in cutting pollution in their cities. Kitakyushu's conservative mayor and local industry both became concerned that leftists would win the next local elections if pollution was not reduced. Thus the municipal government utilised scientific pollution data and prepared individualised pollution reduction recommendations in sulphur oxide pollution control agreements, which were accepted and complied with by all local industries. The result was a significant reduction in air pollution without the need for active intervention from Kitakyushu's citizenry. Cientificos sociales han descrito las protestas anti-polución urbana de Japon en los años 60 como un fenómeno nacional. Sinembargo, en Kitakyushu, ciudad industrial japonesa más polucionada en ese tiempo, no se desarrollóningún movimiento ciudadano evidente. Debido a que las políticas locales y económicas eran dominadas por la gran industria, sus ciudadanos no estaban dispuestos a retar directamente estas industrias. En lugar de eso, grupos locales de mujeres estudiaron problemas locales de polución y presentaron sus resultados al público. Estas actividades despertaron conciencia pública y resultaron en el incremento del apoyo para políticos izquierdistas locales debido a que las administraciones izquierdistas habían triunfado en la reducción de la polución en sus ciudades. El alcalde conservador y la industria local de Kitakyushu empezaron a preocuparse que los izquierdistas ganarían las próximas elecciones locales si la polución no era reducida. Asíque, el Gobierno Municipal utilizó información científica sobre polución y preparó recomendaciones de reducción de polución individualizada en acuerdos de control de polución en oxído sulfurico, los cuales fueron aceptados y obedecidos por todas las industrias locales. El resultado fue una significativa reducción en la polución del aire sin la necesidad de la intervención activa de parte de la ciudadania de Kitakyushu.     

传统中医学理论与企业安全生产风险管理

笔者将传统中医学理论与企业安全生产风险管理相结合,在事故致因、事故预防、安全管理等方面,借鉴中医的预防思想、整体观念、五行学说、辨证施治等理论方法,分析研究指出:企业发生安全事故如同人体得病,正气不足是发病的内在根据,邪气入侵是发病的重要条件。因此,发生事故的根本原因在于企业本身;要从研究企业自身的影响安全生产诸要素之间的相互滋生和相互制约的关系入手,加强事故预防工作,坚持整体性的原则,辨证分析事故原因,加大企业生产安全的精神和物质保障,才能全面提高企业的生产安全风险管理水平。     

Technology advance and discounting of the historical emission responsibilities

Solving the dispute over historical greenhouse gases emission responsibility is critical for the future climate agreement.This article borrows the methodology from the carbon budget proposal,but further develops this approach by proposing discount of the historical responsibility due to the technology advance.Firstly,it studies the Annex I countries’mitigation and financial responsibilities of the historical emission in the carbon budget proposal;furthermore,it analyzes the results and implications of the discount approach.Results show that the discount method significantly reduces the burden of the mitigation and financial responsibilities of the Annex I countries.Thus,we claim that the discount approach is a systematic,pragmatic,and fair approach to solve the historical responsibility dispute and financial problems for the post-2020international climate institutions.