Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

考虑应变速率影响的混凝土重力坝非线性地震响应分析

通过引入应变速率、损伤变量以及刚度退化指标等参数,建立了应变率相关的混凝土弹塑性损伤模型。运用该模型对某重力坝厂房坝段分别就率相关及率无关两种情况进行了三维非线性地震响应时程分析。深入研究了混凝土应变速率等相关特性对结构动力响应的影响。结果表明,应变速率对混凝土的力学性能有一定的影响,随着应变速率的增加,坝体结构的变形减小,主拉应力有所提高,应变能有所减小以及开裂损伤有一定的降低。所得结论对混凝土重力坝的震害研究有一定的参考价值。     

Weather-mediated natural selection on arrival time in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota)

An unusually long period of cold weather in May 1996 caused extensive mortality among insectivorous cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in the northern and central Great Plains. We analyzed how viability selection affected spring arrival time in a migratory Nebraska population by comparing capture histories of survivors with those of birds known to have died and by documenting how arrival time changed in the year following the selection event. Surviving birds had significantly later first-capture dates (an index of arrival time) in the years prior to selection than those that died; a significant selection differential suggested directional selection for birds that arrived later. Colony sites were occupied significantly later following the selection event, and the distribution of first-capture dates in the season after selection was significantly shifted toward later arrivals. Offspring of the survivors tended to arrive later than birds of the same age prior to the selection event. While major weather-caused mortality events of this magnitude are rare in the study area, spells of cold weather severe enough to cause limited mortality are frequent in April and early May. At least 25 probable mortality events of varying severity were identified in the last 50 years based on climatological data. Periodic weather-mediated selection against early arrival constrains the cliff swallow’s breeding season and may partly prevent directional selection for earlier nesting. Received: 19 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

Life history costs of olfactory status signalling in mice

Large body size confers a competitive advantage in animal contests but does not always determine the outcome. Here we explore the trade-off between short-term achievement of high social status and longer-term life history costs in animals which vary in competitive ability. Using laboratory mice, Mus musculus, as a model system, we show that small competitors can initially maintain dominance over larger males by increasing investment in olfactory status signalling (scent-marking), but only at the cost of reduced growth rate and body size. As a result they become more vulnerable to dominance reversals later in life. Our results also provide the first empirical information about life history costs of olfactory status signals. Received: 15 December 1999 / Revised: 6 June 2000 / Accepted: 24 June 2000     

不同墩高下连续刚构桥抗震性能分析

以某大跨连续高墩刚构桥为依托,采用Midas/civil软件建立仿真模型,通过时程分析方法研究双肢薄壁墩参数在地震响应下对高墩连续刚构桥抗震性能的影响.以桥墩高度为主要参数,以模型阵型频率、桥墩墩顶、墩底位移及内力变化三个方面对其抗震性能进行评价.研究结果表明,随着其中一个桥墩高度的增加,桥梁频率不断减小,矮墩墩底及矮...     

浅谈音乐与体育之缘

音乐与体育作为人类社会独特的文化现象,在不同时期以各种形式相互融合,共同构成人类自身情感的表达方式,成为“世界语言”。现代社会,音乐以其特有的审美、教育、娱乐功能对社会的进步和发展起着积极的作用。尤其是音乐与现代奥运会结合,传承了奥林匹克精神,扩大奥运会的影响,展示了民族的文化,让我们真实地感受到一种前所未有的改变世界的力量。     

贵州喀斯特山区不同种植年限花椒根际土壤细菌群落结构特征研究

以贵州花江峡谷花椒(Zanthoxylum bungeamun)林为研究对象,采用16S rRNA高通量测序技术,分析种植5、10、20、30 a花椒根际土壤细菌群落结构和多样性特征,探讨不同种植年限花椒土壤理化因子对根际细菌群落分布的影响,为喀斯特石漠化地区花椒农业可持续发展提供有效的理论依据.结果表明,随着花椒种植...     

Seven thousand years in the service of humanity—the history of copper, the red metal

Measured by weight, copper is the third most important metal used by man. The annual value of its 2007 output was on a par with the GDP of e.g. Ukraine. Copper is also one of the oldest metals, its employment going back 7000 years. For millennia, it was predominantly employed for decorative purposes, coinage and in warfare. Technical breakthroughs in antiquity, like smelting and alloying, expanded its production and enhanced its utility. Copper's true heyday occurred after 1850, with the usage of electricity. In the period since then, volumes increased 300-fold, while costs and prices declined. With impressive progress in the technology of its production and consumption, the red metal has been able to hold its own, despite the emergence over history of formidable substitutes like iron, aluminum, plastics and optic fiber.     

Learning About the History of Landscape Use for the Future: Consequences for Ecological and Social Systems in Swedish Bergslagen

Barriers and bridges to implement policies about sustainable development and sustainability commonly depend on the past development of social–ecological systems. Production of metals required integration of use of ore, streams for energy, and wood for bioenergy and construction, as well as of multiple societal actors. Focusing on the Swedish Bergslagen region as a case study we (1) describe the phases of natural resource use triggered by metallurgy, (2) the location and spatial extent of 22 definitions of Bergslagen divided into four zones as a proxy of cumulative pressure on landscapes, and (3) analyze the consequences for natural capital and society. We found clear gradients in industrial activity, stream alteration, and amount of natural forest from the core to the periphery of Bergslagen. Additionally, the legacy of top-down governance is linked to today’s poorly diversified business sector and thus municipal vulnerability. Comparing the Bergslagen case study with other similar regions in Russia and Germany, we discuss the usefulness of multiple case studies.     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.