Conflict-related mortality: an analysis of 37 datasets

Mortality rates are among the main indicators of the human impact of armed conflict and many surveys have assessed this impact both for targeting and evaluating humanitarian aid programmes. Almost no epidemiological analysis such as calculating relative risk was performed nor were reference values clearly described. Here the aim is to review published mortality rates for a better understanding of age-specific mortality in armed conflict. Published mortality rates from conflict situations were collected and pre-conflict reference rates composed. We calculated the relative risk of dying in conflict compared to pre-conflict for children under 5 and people older than five years old. Although limited by reporting inadequacies, the results confirm the high vulnerability of children < 5 but identify a higher relative risk of dying among the > or = 5 year olds. Although not entirely new, this observation is not fully understood. Further systematic epidemiological research is needed to estimate and understand the impact of armed conflict on mortality.     

The future of humanitarian action: mapping the implications of Iraq and other recent crises

In late 2003 the Feinstein International Famine Center, in partnership with institutions in London, Geneva and Washington, organised a series of consultations on the future of humanitarian action post-Iraq. This article is based on those discussions. A number of recurring concerns are elaborated, ranging from the perception of humanitarianism as a Northern-driven and Northern-controlled enterprise, through the politicisation of security and the devaluation of the protective power of emblems, to the very nature of how the crisis in Iraq is perceived. The article explores the implications of such issues for humanitarian workers and their institutions. It concludes by framing an agenda for action by the humanitarian sector.     

Arsenic mineralization,source, distribution,and abundance in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia,Turkey

Environmental exposure to arsenic (As) in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia, Turkey has been reported to cause various types of arsenic-associated skin disorders (Dogan, Dogan, Celebi, & Baris, 2005). A geological and mineralogical study was conducted to find the sources and distribution of the As. Geogenic (background) levels were measured in samples collected from various sources in the Gediz, Simav, Tavsanli, Emet, Yoncali, Yenicekoy, and Muratdagi areas of the Kutahya region. Based on this analysis, we determined that natural sources are a domineering factor affecting the distribution of As, which was found: (1) mainly in evaporitic minerals, including colemanite (269–3900 ppm) and gypsum (11–99,999 ppm), but also in alunite (7–10 ppm) and chert (54–219 ppm); (2) in secondary epithermal gypsum, which has a high concentration of As in the form of realgar and orpiment along fracture zones of Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate aquifers; (3) in rocks, including limestone/dolomite (3–699 ppm) and travertine (5–4736 ppm), which are relatively more enriched in As than volcanics (2–14 ppm), probably because of secondary enrichment through hydrological systems; (4) in coal (1.9–46.5 ppm) in the sedimentary successions of the Tertiary basins; (5) in thermal waters, where As is unevenly distributed at concentrations varying from 0.0–0.9 mg/l. The highest As concentrations in thermal water (Gediz and Simav) correlate to the higher pH (7–9.3) and T (60–83°C) conditions and to the type of water (Na–HCO₃–SO₄ with high concentration of Ca, Mg, K, SiO₂, and Cl in the water). Changes in pH can be related to some redox reactions, such as the cation exchange reactions driving the dissolution of carbonates and silicates. Fe-oxidation, high pH values (7–9.3), presence of other trace metals (Ni, Co, Pb, Zn, Al), increased salinity (Na, Cl), high B, Li, F, and SiO, high Fe, SO₄ (magnetite, specularite-hematite, gypsum), and graphite, and the presence of U, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, and B, especially in the Emet, Gediz, and Simav areas, are the typical indicators for the geothermally affected water with high As content. A sixth source of As in this region is the ground (0.0–10.7 mg/l) and the surface waters (0.0022–0.01 mg/l), which are controlled by water–rock interaction, fracture system, and mixing/dilution of thermal waters. The high As concentration in groundwater corresponds to the areas where pathological changes are greatest in the habitants. Arsenic in ground water also effects ecology. For example, only Juriperus oxycedrus and J. varioxycedrus types of vegetation are observed in locations with the highest concentration of As in the region. Branches and roots of these plants are enriched in As.     

Rebuilding and strengthening health systems and providing basic health services in fragile states

The international community has compelling humanitarian, political, security and economic reasons to engage in rebuilding and strengthening health systems in fragile states. Improvements in health services and systems help to strengthen civil society and to restore legitimacy to governments. Effective engagement with fragile states to inform the design of health programmes and selection of interventions depends on donor coordination and an understanding of health system challenges. Planning requires consideration of allocation (services to be delivered), production (organisation of services), distribution (beneficiaries of services) and financing. The criteria for selecting interventions are: their impact on major health problems; effectiveness; the possibility of scale-up; equity; and sustainability. There are various options for financing and models of engagement, but support should always combine short-term relief with longer-term development. Stakeholders should aim not only to save lives and protect health but also to bolster nations' ability to deliver good-quality services in the long run.     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.     

国际金融危机背景下中国服务贸易的开放

近年来我国服务贸易保持着稳健发展,逐步跻身全球服务贸易大国行列.国际金融危机对我国服务贸易的发展既是严峻挑战,又带来了新的发展机遇.本文就在国际金融危机背景下,中国服务贸易面对机遇和挑战将如何开放提出了几点对策.     

The role of positive affectivity in team effectiveness during crises

Organizational efforts to improve team effectiveness in crisis situations primarily have focused on team training initiatives and, to a lesser degree, on staffing teams with respect to members' ability, experience, and functional backgrounds. Largely neglected in these efforts is the emotional component of crises and, correspondingly, the notion of staffing teams with consideration for their affective makeup. To address this void, we examined the impact of team member dispositional positive affect (PA) on team crisis effectiveness and the role of felt negative emotion in transmitting that influence. A study of 21 nuclear power plant crews engaged in crisis training simulations revealed that homogeneity in PA, but not mean‐level PA, was associated with greater team effectiveness. Mediation analysis suggested that homogeneity in PA leads to greater team effectiveness by reducing the amount of negative emotions that team members experience during crises. Furthermore, homogeneity in PA compensated for lower mean‐level PA in predicting effectiveness. Discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for understanding and further exploring the importance of affective factors and especially team affective composition in team crisis performance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land cover change and abrupt environmental impacts on Javan volcanoes, Indonesia: a long-term perspective on recent events

Based on a presentation of the spectacularly abrupt environmental and societal processes occurring on Java since the 1990s, and using that as an analogue to compare their consequences with the known environmental history of the island, we unravel the relative contributions of natural and human impacts in shaping the environment of Java. Our work is based on remote sensing, Geographical Information System analysis, field-based observations and measurements of responses to abrupt land cover changes in the last 10 years. Ecological disturbance has been endemic to the long-term history of Java, but montane forests on volcanoes have since ca. 1990 become the last frontier of colonisation and are for the first time rapidly receding. We reveal how human disturbance of natural ecosystems, today as in the past, tends to be the greatest where resistance is the least. This appears true within the regional setting of Southeast Asia, where Javan forests since the last glaciation have constituted a biogeographical ecotone with a limited natural ability to regenerate after some imbalance. It is equally true at the scale of single events where humans will turn a natural disturbance to their own advantage. Overall, it remains difficult to deconvolve the signals of spontaneous human impacts and of localised natural events such as volcanic activity, El Niño-related forest fires or longer climatic anomalies because humans are opportunistic in their attitudes to natural variability and so the two are often inextricably linked. The clearest impact on land cover and land degradation comes from the history of state-organised deforestation, whether colonial or indigenous, because its impact has been systematic, pervasive and regionally consistent. Javan environments have shown astonishing signs of resilience under the abrupt, cumulative impacts that have been inflicted over the last four centuries in successive iterations, possibly because the high-energy tropical and volcanic environment is a system in which sediment turnover is naturally rapid and where past scars of land degradation either heal rapidly or are soon destroyed by younger events. However, the volcanoes are the island’s keystone reservoirs of water, sediment and biodiversity and command the geomorphic metabolism of the lowlands. By removing forests from increasingly crowded mountain slopes, Javanese society is following a trajectory in which new nonlinear responses to environmental hazards and change may limit our capacity to anticipate and contain environmental risk to human life and property.     

从汶川地震看我国世界遗产地的旅游危机管理——以青城山—都江堰为例

一场突如其来的汶川大地震考验了中国的经济,旅游业首当其冲,损失惨重。造成如此巨大损失,地震的影响固然不少,但旅游系统缺少一整套有效的危机管理机制,也是一个重要的原因。文章分析了汶川地震对四川旅游业的影响,以青城山-都江堰为例,提出了世界遗产地旅游危机管理的必要性以及具体的危机管理模式。     

金融危机下我国废钢供求回顾与展望

国际金融危机对我国废钢市场影响巨大,市场需求萎缩,价格急剧下跌。总结回顾了2008年我国废钢市场回收、消费概况及其主要特点,并对2009年我国废钢回收量、价格走向以及再生资源增值税政策的调整实施等相关问题进行分析讨论。