Modelling agronomic properties of Technosols constructed with urban wastes

The greening of urban and suburban areas requires large amounts of arable earth that is a non-renewable resource. However, concentration of population in cities leads to the production of high amounts of wastes and by-products that are nowadays partly recycled as a resource and quite systematically exported out of urban areas. To preserve natural soil resources, a strategy of waste recycling as fertile substitutes is proposed. Eleven wastes are selected for their environmental harmlessness and their contrasted physico-chemical properties for their potential use in pedological engineering. The aim is (i) to demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation of fertile substrates exclusively with wastes and (ii) to model their physico-chemical properties following various types, number and proportions of constitutive wastes. Twenty-five binary and ternary combinations are tested at different ratios for total carbon, Olsen available phosphorus, cation exchange capacity, water pH, water retention capacity and bulk density. Dose–response curves describe the variation of physico-chemical properties of mixtures depending on the type and ratio of selected wastes. If these mixtures mainly mimic natural soils, some of them present more extreme urban soil features, especially for pH and P_Olsen. The fertility of the new substrates is modelled by multilinear regressions for the main soil properties.     

Early Responses to Acute Ozone Exposure in Two Fagus Sylvatica Clones Differing in Xeromorphic Adaptations: Photosynthetic and Stomatal Processes, Membrane and Epicuticular Characteristics

Two Fagus sylvatica L. clones were used to investigate the early responses to acute O₃ exposure (150 nL L⁻¹, i.e., 1.35× ambient hourly peak in rural Italy) and whether xeromorphic adaptations affect gas exchange, membrane, and epicuticular responses. One clone originated in a wet and temperate climate in Central Italy (Tuscany); the other clone originated in a warmer and drier climate in the southern-most part of the F. sylvatica distribution (Sicily). Because of higher base gas exchange rates, the most negative effects of O₃ exposure (gas exchange impairment, uncoupling between net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, increased membrane lipid peroxidation) were found in the southern clone. Xeromorphic adaptations (higher epicuticular waxes and stomatal density, lower leaf wettability and size) were found in this clone. Our results suggest that xeromorphism may increase O₃ sensitivity in species not adapted to face water stress, like the mesophilic F. sylvatica, when experiments are carried out with full irrigation. We present evidence describing the relationship between gas exchange and number and status of stomata. Stomatal density and the structural damage to stomata resulting from O₃ exposure did not affect gas exchange: In fact, non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis prevailed over stomatal limitations.     

美国地震风险评估中建筑物易损性与损失组合的探讨

探讨了以美国地震灾害风险评估模型为例的建筑物易损性模型的建立方法及地震随机事件损失组合的方法.由于应用对象的不同,如用于工程项目风险的评估或是对保险资产风险的评估,其易损性模型建立的方式具有较大的差异.在工程应用中,注重对建筑结构的分析,往往使用非线性解析方法如能力频谱法等以得到结构的易损性或脆弱曲线;而保险行业常用历史数据并运用统计方法等获取所需的易损性曲线.由于工程应用的易损性曲线有更好的精准性,越来越多保险用模型采用此方法.此外,工程应用常对单一地震事件进行评估,而保险行业的模型往往涉及对大量随机事件的评估.对不同的建筑物易损性建模方法、规范标准及适用范围进行了探讨,并对随机事件损失组合方法中如何计算损失的单次超越概率(OEP)和累计超越概率(AEP)进行了介绍.     

OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF A REGIONAL AQUIFER IN EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation and application of a ground-water hydraulic management model to determine the optimal development and operating policies of a regional aquifer in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The hydraulic response of the aquifer system is represented by a simulation model that is linked to an optimization management model using response functions. Yearly optimal ground-water extraction rates over a planning horizon of 15 years are determined for four scenarios, each reflecting alternative ground-water development policies. The results are presented in the form of tradeoff curves, relating drawdowns to optimal pumpage, which may enhance the decisionmaker's ability to select the best development policy from a set of alternatives. The results illustrate how various optimal management schemes can be devised to increase the total withdrawal from the aquifer while preventing excessive de-watering.     

EFFECTIVE USE OF LANDSAT DATA IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi² (2.59 km²). For basins larger than 10mi² (25.9km²), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants.     

Rates of environmental problem generation: Thoughts on a new research direction

Environmental scientists are continually discovering new and emerging environmental problems. There have been many studies of how a particular environmental problem has occurred, its costs to society, and its (potential) resolution. However, to date there have been few studies of the rate at which new environmental problems are generated by human technological innovations. In this note, I present a conceptual framework that will help quantify how many now-unknown problems we may expect to occur in a given sector. Two brief case studies illustrate the difficulty of finding appropriate dataset for fitting the full model, however. Policy implications of the conceptual framework are discussed, with different kinds of economic sectors requiring different approaches.     

DETERMINISTIC-SYSTEMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN OVERLAND FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of storm runoff is presented, giving primary attention to deterministic-systemic relationships. So that system aspects can be emphasized, other aspects are kept simple; analysis is made for uniform rainfall on a strip of uniform width, limiting direct applicability to small areas. Two relationships between excess rain and time of concentration, one based on hydraulic parameters, the other on hydrologic characteristics, are combined in a solution for peak discharge. The hydraulic expression gives the interrelationship of time of concentration, excess rain, friction, length, and slope. The hydrologic relationship is achieved by converting ordinary intensity-duration curves to corresponding excess rain intensity-duration curves, thereby interrelating excess rain, time of concentration, and loss characteristics. The resulting solution for peak discharge allows for systemic feedback among both hydraulic and hydrologic parameters.     

TOTAL SOLUTES LOADS AND GEOCHEMICAL YIELDS IN THE SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: River solute loads have seldom been measured in very large, complex drainage basins, nor have the methods of calculating loads been critically examined. For sites in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada, rating curves were poor predictors of solute loads because correlations between discharge and total solutes concentration were weak (R² < 0.05 in most cases) and suffered from hysteresis. In contrast, the interval method produced reliable estimates in all seasons and sites tested, and was little affected by sampling schedule. The limit of precision (SE) for estimates of mean annual or seasonal solute load was 10–15 percent of the mean (5 percent in very small basins), reached with 10 years or more of data. Two-thirds or more of total annual solute load was transported during the open-water season, but the proportion carried during winter increased from 8 percent to 34 percent from the upstream to the downstream end of the basin, due to reservoirs retaining and mixing water. Annual loads of total solutes varied from 6.2 × 10⁴ tonnes in foothills tributaries to almost 4.0 × 10⁶ tonnes in the Saskatchewan River near the mouth. But, on an areal basis, the mountain and foothills region was the dominant solute source, producing 43–97 tonnes/km²/yr, compared with only 3–22 tonnes/km²/yr for prairie rivers. This difference is a consequence of greater rainfall and, hence, more rapid erosion in the mountains.     

Predicting Plant Extinction Based on Species-Area Curves in Prairie Fragments with High Beta Richness

Abstract:  Species-area relationships and island biogeography theory are commonly used to predict how species richness will decline with fragmentation. There are a variety of largely untested assumptions in these approaches, including the assumptions that populations are distributed uniformly before fragmentation, and that local extinctions are due to effects of small population sizes. If populations are not distributed uniformly, then populations can be abundant locally but rare globally. This would cause extinction rates to be smaller than predicted. We tested extinction theory by developing estimates of the number of plant species that should be present in small tallgrass prairie fragments and then testing the uniformity assumption by partitioning species richness into α (within site) and β (among site) components in Iowa prairies. Many more native prairie plant species were present in surveys of prairie fragments (491) than was predicted based on theory (27–207). A large proportion (75%) of the total species richness was β richness. We suggest that the high proportion of β richness was responsible for the shallow species-area slopes and the lower than expected number of species losses and that a better understanding of what determines β diversity will improve predictions of fragmentation effects on richness of plants. We also suggest that plants in prairie remnants may be best conserved by protecting different prairie types rather than by protecting a few large areas containing a single prairie type.     

A methodology to clarify logical relationship among failure modes and determine system probabilities

In the vulnerability analysis, correlations among failure modes have significant effects on the estimation of failure probabilities. However, the failure modes were assumed to be independent with each other or only parts of dependencies of failure modes were considered, which might lead to inaccurate results. In the present study, a novel methodology to clarify the entire logical relationship among failure modes and determine system probabilities is developed. Firstly, based on the form-changed limit state equations (LSEs) of failure modes, the LSE surfaces or curves are plotted. Subsequently, the logical relationship among failure modes can be identified with the LSE surfaces or curves. The system consequences are further developed by the logical relationship. Bayesian network (BN) is constructed with the input of logical relationship into arcs. With BN considering logical relationship, the occurrence probabilities of failure modes are calculated and system probabilities are estimated more accurately, which are verified well with Monte Carlo simulation and analytical solution. Furthermore, the detailed compositions of occurrence probabilities of failure modes are specified by the system probabilities. The methodology is illustrated by a case study. This study can be applied to the vulnerability analysis of various hazards or disasters as long as LSEs for corresponding failure modes can be developed.