太湖流域上游平原河网污染物综合衰减系数的测定

改善太湖水质需要削减上游河流进入太湖的污染物总量.为了探求太湖流域上游平原河网的自净能力,开展原位实验测定了枯水期高锰酸盐指数、氨氮(NH_4~+-N)、总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)的综合衰减系数,根据河道的水力特征对综合衰减系数进行了修正,并利用一维稳态水质模型对修正前后综合衰减系数的可靠性进行了验证.结果表明,高锰酸盐指数、NH_4~+-N、TN和TP的综合衰减系数分别为:0.0296~0.4106、0.0224~0.3564、0.0137~0.3046和0.0555~0.5725 d~(-1).可靠性验证表明高锰酸盐指数、NH_4~+-N、TN和TP综合衰减系数修正前的平均相对误差分别为8.39%、14.40%、11.43%和19.22%,修正后的平均相对误差分别为10.65%、14.34%、11.37%和19.24%.修正前后高锰酸盐指数、NH_4~+-N、TN和TP的平均相对误差均小于20%且变化不显著,表明综合衰减系数的测定结果能够为太湖流域上游平原河网的污染物总量控制管理提供科学参数;也表明枯水期的水力条件对综合衰减系数的影响较小.     

我国人为源气态活性氮排放时空变动特征分析

随着粮食和能源需求的增加,农业生产和化石燃料燃烧带来的活性氮污染越来越成为影响我国环境和人民健康的重要因素之一.通过对2000、2005及2010年全国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的人为源气态活性氮排放总量、单位GDP及单位人均排放量的Moran's I指数和GetisOrd G*i指数进行空间分析,探讨了气态活性氮排放及其强度的时空变动特征.结果表明,全国的气态活性氮排放及其强度呈现明显的空间集聚特征.在空间分布特征上,全国活性氮排放表现为高值集聚分布,其热点主要位于华北平原和长江中下游平原地区;排放强度方面则为高值聚集和低值聚集兼备.通过对3个年份的冷热点比较分析发现,排放强度的冷点地区变化较小,热点地区变化较大.其中,单位GDP排放强度方面,冷点地区处于东南沿海地区,热点地区则由西北地区缩小到四川、甘肃两省;而单位人口排放强度方面,冷点地区范围有所缩减,热点地区则由分散转变为集中分布于京津冀及周边的山西、内蒙古和辽宁等.分析人为源气态活性氮时空分布格局和特征及其形成原因,可为评估和减缓气态活性氮排放对生态环境的影响提供科学基础.     

上海地区通风指数的应用研究

利用2013—2014年上海地区的风廓线资料及NCEP再分析资料,计算研究了上海地区通风指数的变化情况,并结合实际天气情况和预报经验,对常用通风指数公式进行本地化修正.通过分析修正前后的通风指数与颗粒物浓度的关系发现,修正后通风指数的时间变化特征与PM_(2.5)浓度的时间变化有显著的负相关关系,且经过修正的通风指数对于PM_(2.5)浓度变化的指示意义更强;研究其在典型污染个例中的应用情况发现,修正后的通风指数低时,对应的PM_(2.5)浓度值高,说明修正后的通风指数能较好地反映出边界层内大气对污染物的扩散和输送作用;另外,与未修正的通风指数对比发现,修正后的通风指数降低了原通风指数的数值,对污染的指示意义更强,尤其表现在上海地区受冷空气影响时,修正后的通风指数较原通风指数降低明显,能更好地反映出大气对上游地区污染物的输送作用.由此可见,经过修正后的通风指数更适用于本地化的预报服务,这也为上海地区的空气质量预报和霾预报提供了一个新的参考指标.     

考虑后悔与失望心理的应急救援任务匹配方法

为研究区间犹豫模糊信息下的应急救援任务匹配问题,提出考虑救援人员与受灾群众后悔与失望心理的决策方法以及确定双边主体效用值的方法,基于后悔理论与失望理论获得双边主体的后悔值与失望值,确定双边主体的综合感知效用值,并构建最大化综合感知效用值的多目标匹配优化模型,以得到最优匹配结果。研究结果表明：后悔与失望心理对双边主体的心理感知具有重要影响,但不影响最优匹配结果。研究结果可为应急救援任务匹配提供理论支持。     

港口规划环境影响评价指标体系的研究

介绍了规划环境影响评价的发展及应用,根据规划环境影响评价及港口规划的特点,对港口规划环境影响评价的内容、技术路线和指标体系的建立进行了研究,并提出港口规划的环境目标和评价指标,为我国港口规划环境影响评价技术的完善提供借鉴。     

我国安全生产行政执法统计指标体系研究与应用

我国安全生产行政执法统计指标体系自施行以来,一直存在统计指标体系过于繁杂、部分统计指标较笼统,未充分体现安全生产重点工作及其成效等问题,创新改革安全生产行政执法统计制度具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。通过梳理安全生产行政执法统计指标体系演变脉络,在实地调研和现场访谈的基础上,基于PDCA理论提出以执法人员-执法对象-执法行为“三位一体”的安全生产行政执法统计指标体系,明确包含执法力量、执法对象、执法检查和事故查处等方面的综合评价指标,并在实践中得以应用和检验,为全面分析安全生产执法效能拓展空间,统计制度的后续修订和安全生产综合分析工作奠定基础。     

时间因素对钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K1值测定的影响分析

针对时间因素对钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K1测定结果的影响,采用恒温瓦斯放散试验深入分析钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K1测定理论的准确性,总结因时间因素导致K1值测定误差所带来的现场问题。研究结果表明:K1值的测定误差与时间关系密切,测定启动时间越晚,误差越大;测定启动时间由第1 min延后至第2 min,绝对误差和相对误差最大值分别增加0.081 cm3/(g·min1/2)和2.20%;高瓦斯压力条件矿井或煤层的局部高瓦斯压力区域、构造煤发育区的钻屑瓦斯解吸指标K1值测定结果偏低,测定误差偏大。研究结果可为煤与瓦斯突出预测水平的提升提供技术支撑。     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

大型碳化硅生产园区面源源强及减排指标核算

以某年产25万吨大型碳化硅园区无组织排放面源为例,提出基于多个地面站气象数据的CALPUFF模型地面浓度反推方法,优化流场模拟,使得无组织面源源强核算结果更加准确,并以环境保护目标空气质量达标为原则,核算其大气污染物减排指标,得出具体结论:园区大气污染物SO2、NOX、CO、PM10年排放量分别为449.06t、86.98t、5158.58t、115.06t;无组织排放SO2、CO及PM10的减排比例分别为63.5%、19.2%、42.44%,对应减排量分别为285.16 t/a、990.45 t/a、48.83 t/a。