基于LCS的应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型

作为应急管理中的主要工作内容,应急决策在整个应急管理工作中具有战略意义,为了对危机情境下的应急决策主体进行聚类分析,定量计算不同决策主体之间相应决策文本的区别。借鉴最长公共子序列模型（LCS）的原理,从决策文本中提取主题词,根据决策文本的特点将其分为“目标”和“行动”2级,结合样本总体确定替换矩阵、空位罚分规则和目标函数,构建高层应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型;运用Needleman Wunsch算法对该模型进行求解;通过对得到的地震情景下的高层应急决策文本的分析,证明模型的有效性和可行性;为了避免序列长度差过大对聚类分析的结果影响,在此基础上提出相对相似性得分的概念,并通过与VSM算法得到的结果进行比较,证明该模型在应急决策文本相似性分析中的优越性。     

改革开放30年人的发展:评价与反思

传统的“唯GDP ”的经济发展方式成为中国未来经济可持续发展的桎梏,转变发展方式,提高经济增长质量,倡导共享式、包容性增长成为中国经济发展的新主题,而这种发展模式的基本导向就是促进“人的发展”.基于这样一个视角,本文依据经济增长质量提高的要求,从人的素质、人的福利、人的保障、人的迁移4个方面构建综合评价指标体系,对改革开放30年人的发展程度进行了测度与评价.评价结果显示:随着经济不断发展,30年间中国人的发展状况得到明显提高,但是人的发展指数以及人的素质指数、人的福利指数、人的保障指数、人的迁移指数、经济状况指数、资源环境指数仍需不断改善.未来中国在提高增长质量的过程中要促进人的发展,强调经济发展与人的发展的协调,树立“以人为本”的发展理念,着眼于人性,重视人的存在、人的价值、人的意义,建立促进人的素质和能力提升的机制和体制,确定以“富民”为目标的经济发展道路,实现人的发展与生态环境协调发展的有机统一.     

Comparing and Integrating Community-Based and Science-Based Approaches to Prioritizing Marine Areas for Protection

Abstract:  We compared and integrated marine protected areas proposed through community and scientific assessments in 2 regions of British Columbia, Canada. The community priorities were identified during individual and group interviews with knowledgeable resource users. The scientific priorities were developed with abiotic and biotic data in Marxan, a decision-support tool. The resulting maps of community-based and science-based priorities were very similar for the inshore areas, which lent credibility to both approaches. The resource users thought the science-based maps were fairly good at highlighting areas important for conservation, but preferred the scenarios that integrated the 2 maps to either constituent map. Incorporating spatial variation in human impacts on the marine areas and commercial fishing, which are both costs of protection, into our Marxan analyses led to scenarios that were different from either constituent map. Our results show the value of integrating community-based and science-based approaches in conservation planning to achieve community acceptance and conservation utility. They also reveal that people's assessments on the basis of their traditional ecological knowledge may serve as a reasonable proxy for scientific approaches in selecting areas of ecological value.     

关于黄土高原陇东地区环境变化的回顾与思考

在近七八十年里,生态环境脆弱的陇东地区由于人口增加引起乱砍滥伐、过度放牧、陡坡开垦造成的水土流失和引起大量开垦坡地,广种薄收,形成“越穷越垦、越垦越穷”的恶性循环等等,出现了一系列人地矛盾.随着植树造林,退耕还林,禁止放牧等一系列政策措施的实施和社会经济的快速发展,使得这一矛盾得到了一定程度的缓解,可今后怎样保持和继续深化以及怎样在环境可承载下发展经济和提高人民的生活水平是我们要思考的问题.从环境变化的几个方面进行讨论并得出一些存在的问题及建议.     

An Australian perspective on rewilding

Rewilding is increasingly recognized as a conservation tool but is often context specific, which inhibits broad application. Rewilding in Australia seeks to enhance ecosystem function and promote self-sustaining ecosystems. An absence of large-bodied native herbivores means trophic rewilding in mainland Australia has focused on the restoration of functions provided by apex predators and small mammals. Because of the pervasive influence of introduced mesopredators, predator-proof fences, and establishment of populations on predator-free islands are common rewilding approaches. This sets Australian rewilding apart from most jurisdictions and provides globally relevant insights but presents challenges to restoring function to broader landscapes. Passive rewilding is of limited utility in arid zones. Although increasing habitat extent and quality in mesic coastal areas may work, it will likely be necessary to undertake active management. Because much of Australia's population is in urban areas, rewilding efforts must include urban areas to maximize effectiveness. Thus rewilding is not synonymous with wilderness and can occur over multiple scales. Rewilding efforts must recognize human effects on other species and benefit both nature and humans. Rewilding in Australia requires development of a shared vision and strategy and proof-of-concept projects to demonstrate the benefits. The repackaging of existing conservation activities as rewilding may confuse and undermine the success of rewilding programs and should be avoided. As elsewhere, rewilding in Australia should be viewed as an important conservation tool.     

Kabrit ki gen twòp mèt: understanding gaps in WASH services in Haiti's IDP camps

Despite the enormous infusion of post‐quake aid to Haiti, cholera had killed more than 8,000 people by January 2013. Based on two mixed‐method studies of a random sample of 108 internally displaced person (IDP) camps and 168 interviews with agency representatives and recipients, this article examines the prevalence of factors that have proven most relevant to the rapid spread of cholera, particularly the provision of water and sanitation services in IDP camps. The study reveals that 30% of IDP camps had no toilets and 40% had no access to water before the outbreak, with only minimal progress after three months. Using bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses, this article explores patterns in the gaps of services with a range of variables such as NGO camp management, municipality and landowners. It offers several theoretical and policy explanations for low level of services, concluding with a series of recommendations for better coordination and management.     

试对我国失地农民问题的理论探讨

失地农民在征地过程中没有得到合理补偿和妥善安置,影响农村经济发展和社会稳定.妥善安置失地农民,解决失地农民的后顾之忧,除控制征地规模,对现行征地制度、利益分配机制进行改革外,为失地农民的长远生计设计更合理的制度性保障已迫在眉睫.     

Conflict-induced displacement and involuntary resettlement in Colombia: putting Cernea's IRLR model to the test

This paper tests Cernea's (1997) impoverishment risks and livelihood reconstruction (IRLR) model in cases of conflict-induced displacement (CID). In applying the model to a situation involving internal conflict, the article illustrates the particular problems encountered by internally displaced people (IDPs) and policymakers charged to respond to them. The article searches for local interpretations of CID and resettlement through a comparative profile of two IDP settlements in Colombia: one urban, the other rural. It concludes that the IRLR model, when contextualised, provides a useful tool to identify and categorise risks of impoverishment and resettlement priorities. At the same time, however, the article demonstrates that the model insufficiently captures the root causes or causality of CID.     

Inadvertent environmentalism and the action–value opportunity: reflections from studies at both ends of the generational spectrum

A recent turn towards a more contextually sensitive apprehension of the challenge of making everyday life less resource hungry has been partly underwritten by widespread evidence that the environmental values people commonly profess to hold do not often translate into correspondingly low impact actions. Yet sometimes the contexts of everyday life can also conspire to make people limit their consumption without ever explicitly connecting this to the environmental agenda. This paper considers this phenomenon with reference to UK studies from both ends of the generational spectrum. The first questioned how older people keep warm at home during winter and the second examined how young people get rid of no longer wanted possessions. Both found that, though the respondents involved were acting in certain ways that may be deemed comparatively low impact, they were hitherto relatively indifferent to the idea of characterising these actions as such. We outline three ways in which sustainability advocates might respond to the existence of such “inadvertent environmentalists” and consider how they might inspire studies that generate fresh intervention ideas instead of lingering on the dispiriting recognition that people do not often feel able to act for the environment.     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).