Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

Resource Potentials and Limitations of A Nicaraguan Agricultural Region

Food production has to be increased in a sustainable way to meet the future global demand. A key position is attributed to developing countries. A deepened understanding of their agricultural regions with specific resource endowments and constraints is therefore crucial. In this study we propose a methodology based on material flux analysis (MFA) to assess the resource potentials and limitations of a Nicaraguan agricultural region. We focus on current regional and farm resource management and explore them under two scenarios. Indicators are nitrogen and the degrees of self-sufficiency (DSS) for energy, and the staples maize and beans. As data is scarce, most information is based on interviews with farmers of four categories and key persons, and on literature. The results show that nitrogen management does not differ considerably among categories. Nitrogen is mined mostly from staple plots. Self-sufficiency for beans is given in an average year. Yet, landless and small farmers neither produce enough maize for autoconsumption, nor are they self-sufficient for firewood. Energy supply is also the core problem of the region, since the DSS is 70%. Soil nitrogen stocks last at most for three more generations. Analyses with the scenario technique show that: (a) Unlimited population growth has serious consequences in the near future e.g. severe shortage of energy and food. (b) Alternative farming systems are possible, but they require reducing the population by a factor 2, and thus the creation of jobs in a Hinterland. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

天津开发区供水系统地震反应分析

用天津开发区供水系统作为实例,研究了地震作用下该系统的震害,及震后供水功失效状态。实例研究表明,所采用的最新研制的供水系统地震反应分析软件（ＳＰＡＷＧＩＳ）是可靠的。同时还证明,该软件所基于的方法,包括震害预测专家系统及失效流分析等方法是正确的。     

The growing role of web‐based geospatial technology in disaster response and support

This paper examines changes in disaster response and relief efforts and recent web‐based geospatial technological developments through an evaluation of the experiences of the Center for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University, of the Sichuan (2008) and Haiti (2010) earthquake responses. This paper outlines how conventional GIS (geographic information systems) disaster responses by governmental agencies and relief response organisations and the means for geospatial data‐sharing have been transformed into a more dynamic, more transparent, and decentralised form with a wide participation. It begins by reviewing briefly at historical changes in the employment of geospatial technologies in major devastating disasters, including the Sichuan and Haiti earthquakes (case studies for our geospatial portal project). It goes on to assess changes in the available dataset type and in geospatial disaster responders, as well as the impact of geospatial technological changes on disaster relief effort. Finally, the paper discusses lessons learned from recent responses and offers some thoughts for future development.     

Exploring system interactions for building resilience within coastal environments and communities

This paper focuses on identifying examples of first-order system interactions, which make important contributions to building coastal resilience for coastal zone management. This discussion is based on an application of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to a case-study analysis of coastal management in South Australia. The study suggests that cross-scale interactions and informal relationships within and between users and managers are key interactions defining resilience outcomes within the current system. A significant constraint on improving resilience was the lack of evaluative criteria for identifying sustainable forms of system behaviour. The paper argues that resilience is a function of a normative statement on the characteristics desirable in the functioning system. Analyses of coastal resilience, which facilitate greater understanding of the range of complexities in coastal behaviour, are therefore central to gaining the most useful insights into the options and pathways for building more sustainable coastal futures.     

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析方法的比较研究

生命线工程网络抗震可靠性分析是进行生命线工程系统规划、设计、改造与优化的基础。因此 ,寻找一种高效的适应性强的系统可靠性分析方法对实际工程应用具有重要的意义。本文主要介绍两种高效的网络系统两终端连通可靠性分析方法———递推分解算法和有序二分决策图算法。首先 ,分别对两种算法的原理及实现过程进行了详细的论述和说明 ,并且用c语言编制了二分决策图算法的计算程序。然后 ,利用这两种方法及随机模拟算法对 2 0个以往研究中的经典算例和两个实际工程网络———河南省电力网和上海市浦西供水管网 ,进行了网络系统抗震连通可靠性分析。通过对实例分析结果的比较研究 ,得到了一些经验性的结论 ,以期为优化设计工程网络时选择系统可靠性的分析工具提供参考。研究表明 ,由于递推分解算法具有适应性强和能够求得问题近似解的优点 ,因此有良好的实际工程应用前景。     

地震台站观测系统的防雷技术——以陕西为例

雷电对地震观测台站的危害已成为影响台站长期稳定运行的重要因素之一。针对地震台站观测系统建设,从4个方面对避雷技术进行了分析设计。同时以陕西省的地震观测台站为例,具体说明了防雷措施的应用方法及应用效果。     

大型公共场所风险评价研究现状与展望

大型公共场所由于人群高度密集和财富高度集中的特点,其防灾减灾问题一直是城市防灾减灾的重点和难点,其风险性研究直接影响到城市防灾减灾安全工程建设及管理策略的制定实施.全面调研了国内外大型公共场所风险评价指标体系及评价方法的研究现状,分析了大型公共场所风险评价的重要地位,指出了大型公共场所风险评价方面存在的问题,并提出了有关大型公共场所风险评价方面的几点建议.