Effectiveness of Scat‐Detection Dogs in Determining Species Presence in a Tropical Savanna Landscape

Abstract: Most protected areas are too small to sustain populations of wide‐ranging mammals; thus, identification and conservation of high‐quality habitat for those animals outside parks is often a high priority, particularly for regions where extensive land conversion is occurring. This is the case in the vicinity of Emas National Park, a small protected area in the Brazilian Cerrado. Over the last 40 years the native vegetation surrounding the park has been converted to agriculture, but the region still supports virtually all of the animals native to the area. We determined the effectiveness of scat‐detection dogs in detecting presence of five species of mammals threatened with extinction by habitat loss: maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), puma (Puma concolor), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), and giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus). The probability of scat detection varied among the five species and among survey quadrats of different size, but was consistent across team, season, and year. The probability of occurrence, determined from the presence of scat, in a randomly selected site within the study area ranged from 0.14 for jaguars, which occur primarily in the forested areas of the park, to 0.91 for maned wolves, the most widely distributed species in our study area. Most occurrences of giant armadillos in the park were in open grasslands, but in the agricultural matrix they tended to occur in riparian woodlands. At least one target species occurred in every survey quadrat, and giant armadillos, jaguars, and maned wolves were more likely to be present in quadrats located inside than outside the park. The effort required for detection of scats was highest for the two felids. We were able to detect the presence for each of five wide‐ranging species inside and outside the park and to assign occurrence probabilities to specific survey sites. Thus, scat dogs provide an effective survey tool for rare species even when accurate detection likelihoods are required. We believe the way we used scat‐detection dogs to determine the presence of species can be applied to the detection of other mammalian species in other ecosystems.     

深部储层中CO2沿断层泄漏量的影响因素

CGS（CO₂地质储存）是CO₂减排的重要手段之一,天然裂隙的存在则是CGS的潜在风险.CO₂地质储存过程中储层上覆盖层及其浅部含水层是防止CO₂泄漏的天然屏障,为了探究深部咸水层中CO₂沿断层的泄漏过程并获得断层渗透率及储层中超临界CO₂流体初始条件（初始饱和度、初始泄漏压力）对CO₂沿断层泄漏速率和泄漏量的影响程度,依据鄂尔多斯CO₂灌注工程示范区资料,使用多相、多组分溶质运移数值模拟软件TOUGH2建立了2D概念模型.结果表明,深部咸水层中的CO₂在压力差和浓度差的作用下沿断层发生泄漏,到达浅部含水层后开始发生侧向运移,100 a内运移了约200 m的水平距离;由于浮力的作用,CO₂集中在含水层顶板处,有效地防止了CO₂向外泄漏.影响因素分析表明,100 a内断层渗透性能为低渗、中渗和高渗条件时,CO₂累积泄漏量分别为0、1 050和3 000 t;CO₂初始饱和度分别为0.20、0.50和0.99时,CO₂累积泄漏量分别为550、1 050和1 650 t;初始泄漏压力分别为17.3、17.6和18.1 MPa时,CO₂累积泄漏量则分别为900、1 050和1 400 t.除此之外,断层渗透性、CO₂初始气体饱和度和初始泄漏压力对CO₂泄漏的影响还体现在泄漏发生时间和平均泄漏速率上.研究显示,各因素对CO₂沿断层泄漏过程的影响程度表现为断层渗透性能> CO₂初始饱和度> CO₂初始泄漏压力.      

川东北低山丘陵区细颗粒物主要相关因素和季节变化分析——以南充主城区为例

基于中国空气质量在线监测分析平台和全球天气精准预报网的大气质量和气象数据,以四川盆地东北低山丘陵区典型城市南充市主城区为例,检验了细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的概率密度分布,发现其接近对数正态分布,由相关分析确定了PM_(2.5)浓度的主要相关因素为CO、NO_2(相关系数r分别为0.76、0.55,P0.01),再通过对2014年1月—2016年6月的日数据的逐步回归筛选出最优的回归指标和模拟方程(决定系数R_(adj)~2为0.68,P0.05),2016年7月—2017年6月的数据验证表明模拟效果较好(拟合优度为0.64,相对误差15.48%);最后根据时序插值、浓度和IAQI(PM_(2.5))的时段均值发现PM_(2.5)浓度在年际上有降低趋势;在季节上由高到低依次为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季;PM_(2.5)浓度在1月和6月分别呈现出年内的峰值和谷值,5、10月出现了阶段性峰值,尤其是5月;IAQI(PM_(2.5))的季节变化与浓度变化规律相似;且PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)比值的均值为0.67,表明现阶段南充市主城区大气污染物中细颗粒物占有较大比重。     

基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究

基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。     

CO2海底封存泄漏引起海水pH变化的动态数值模型描述

将CO2注入海底已经成为目前碳封存的一种有效方式,而CO2海底封存泄漏会引起pH降低造成海水酸化,改变海水化学环境及海洋生态系统等。本文分析并建立了含有缓冲项的CO2与pH之间换算的动态数值模型,并针对CO2海底封存泄漏对pH的影响做了模拟实验研究,通过实验验证模型的可行性并完善数值模型,旨在为中国CO2海底封存风险控制研究工作提供科学依据。     

Minimizing leakage from a smelter off-gas system by enhanced control

The off-gas handling system is a vital component of a smelter and it is essential that it operates in accordance with environmental regulations. A key feature of the off-gas management system is maintaining a slightly negative system pressure to prevent gas leakage, such as SO₂, out into the work and external environments. To enhance sustainable development, there is also growing interest in capturing and reusing the significant amount of heat and CO₂ contained within off-gas. The potential incorporation of heat and CO₂ recovery systems places importance on enhancing control to minimize the risk of both gas leakage and disturbance of the smelting process. With these requirements in mind, an easily implementable feedforward control enhancement to existing control schemes is proposed to help provide improved performance.     

基于均匀分布的滑坡数值模拟参数取值概率研究--以甘肃黑方台黄土滑坡为例

针对数值模拟参数选取主观性强、量化难度大的问题,在高精度无人机地形数据的基础上,通过对11起滑坡案例进行了407组参数反演实验,对结果准确度定量评价后,得到基于Massflow数值软件关键参数λ0的分布范围,进而运用小样本极大似然估计理论,分析区间边界长度对反演精度的影响,最终提出基于均匀分布的参数取值概率模型,并选用案例验证该模型的准确性。结果表明:地形约束会导致反演过程中所需的内聚力减小,反演获得的11组最优λ0的极差和方差分别为0.29、0.01,在置信度为95%下,极大似然法得到区间边界估计长度仅为0.0998,表明参数λ收敛性较好;反演过程中质心滑动距离ψ准确度优于堆积面积重叠率η,在λ0±0.05的范围,参数估计区间内任意值对模拟误差影响较小,评价指标ψ、η与λ0对应案例的相对误差不超过15%;所选案例验证了在置信度为95%下,以反演得到的最优参数区间边界中点构建概率分布函数的可行性和准确性,研究方法可为单体滑坡数值模拟风险评价提供理论支撑。     

家用空调碳足迹及其关键影响因素分析

我国居民家庭空调拥有量迅速增加,其生命周期中产生的温室效应也日益受到关注.本文依据国际标准PAS 2050,采用RCEES 2012和Ecoinvent 2.1数据库,并运用SimaPro 7.1软件计算了中国典型家用空调的碳足迹.主要结论为:家用空调生命周期中使用阶段用电产生的碳足迹最大,占67%;制冷剂的泄漏是除电力使用外第二大碳足迹贡献因素,产生了23%的碳足迹;生产制造阶段和废物处理阶段的碳足迹分别占16%和-6%.敏感性分析表明,空调日使用时间、空调年使用季节和制冷剂的泄漏比例是家用空调碳足迹的关键影响因素.     

软弱结构面水流冲刷形成集中渗漏通道机制研究

软弱结构面塑性程度高、强度低,在地下水长期作用下,很易导致岩体产生变形、形成集中渗漏通道及渗透破坏.软弱结构面的渗透稳定性,一直是水利水电工程的重要工程地质及水文地质问题之一,目前对其渗透破坏机理的认识还存在不少尚未解决的问题.针对已有对基岩软弱结构形成集中渗漏通道研究的不足,本文在软弱结构面内讨论渗透变形问题,主要探...     

数值预报产品在长江干流段面雨量概率预报中的释用

运用2003年6～8月国家气象中心T213L31、武汉暴雨所MAPS数值预报产品,读取一定经纬度范围内的格点资料进行处理,得到最初因子。应用统计软件对最初因子与面雨量实况值进行聚类分析,并依据最优化的原则,将因子分为若干“段”,面雨量实况值（R）分为4个等级：无雨、0＜R≤5 mm、5 mm＜R＜15 mm和R≥15 mm。针对不同的等级,分别求出因子各“段”的降水频率作为X样本序列;相应地,R取“0”或“1”形成Y样本序列,用多元线性回归统计方法建立长江干流段面雨量概率预报方程。