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41.
42.
Seventy-two squares of 100 ha were selected by stratified random sampling with probabilities proportional to size (pps) to survey landscape changes in the period 1996–2003. The area of the plots times the urbanization pressure was used as a size measure. The central question of this study is whether the sampling with probabilities proportional to size leads to gain in precision compared to equal probability sampling. On average 1.03 isolated buildings per 100 ha have been built, while 0.90 buildings per 100 ha have been removed, leading to a net change of 0.13 building per 100 ha. The area with unspoiled natural relief has been reduced by 2.3 ha per 100 ha, and the length of linear relicts by 137 m per 100 ha. On average 74 m of linear green elements have been planted per 100 ha, while 106 m have been removed, leading to a net change of −31 m per 100 ha. For the state variables ‘unspoiled natural relief', ‘ linear relicts', ‘removed linear green elements', and ‘new – removed linear green elements' there is a gain in precision due to the pps-sampling. For the remaining state variables there is no gain or even a loss of precision (`new buildings', ‘removed buildings', ‘new – removed buildings', ‘new linear green elements'). Therefore, if many state variables must be monitored or when interest is not only in the change but also in the current totals, we recommend to keep things simple, and to select plots with equal probability. 相似文献
43.
基于双指标多等级的土壤重金属生态风险评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
采用土壤中重金属的全量和有效态双重指标,建立基于多等级综合评估的土壤中重金属生态风险评价模型,将联合概率曲线法引入土壤评价模型,分析重金属暴露浓度与毒性数据的概率分布,考察重金属对土壤生物的毒害程度,从而确定土壤中重金属对于生态系统的风险。建立从简单到复杂的多等级综合评价方法,表征重金属的污染等级、浓度效应、多种重金属污染物的协同效应、不同重金属的毒性效应和土壤对不同重金属污染物的敏感性。选择典型地区采集有代表性的土壤样品,测定不同重金属的总量和有效态,验证评价模型的实用性和评价分级的合理性。旨在解决土壤重金属风险评价的方法学问题,为土壤环境质量管理提供支持。 相似文献
44.
45.
毒气泄漏事故居民疏散心理行为特征相关性研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
为了研究在毒气泄漏事故中居民的心理行为特征,选择发生过毒气泄漏事故的某化工企业,采用问卷法对其周边居民进行调查,并运用SPSS软件对调查问卷的结果进行独立性分析,从而得出居民在疏散过程中的各种心理行为反应的相关因素,为制定有效的应急疏散管理预案提供科学的依据。 相似文献
46.
突发事件现场警戒区域的研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
杨春生 《中国安全生产科学技术》2009,5(6):167-170
阐述了事故危险区域、现场警戒区域的基本概念、设置目的和原则,提出将突发事故现场警戒区域分为三层,分别对应现场封锁线、警戒封锁线和交通封锁线,并就吸入毒性危害物质泄漏、燃气泄漏、建筑物火灾等事故,制定了具体的设置方法。现场警戒区域的设定,可在较小成本投入的前提下,通过采取积极的防范和应对措施,有效减少人员伤亡和财产损失,提高救援效率和效果。 相似文献
47.
Foreign trade drives China’s growth,but as the trade scale continues to expand,the carbon emissions also increase quickly.Based on the industry panel data from 1996 to 2010,this paper calculates carbon emissions of 27manufacturing industries.According to the intensity of carbon emissions,this paper divides the manufacturing sectors into low carbon and high carbon manufacturing industry and then analyzes the carbon emission trends.Next,the paper uses the feasible generalized least square regression to verify the existence of environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of the manufacturing industry’s carbon.In order to investigate the carbon leakage problem,the regression also includes the interaction term between trade and industrial value added.Our findings are as follows:the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry accord with the EKC curve,but have a linear relationship with the high carbon manufacturing industry;trade reduces the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,but it increases those of the high carbon manufacturing industry;for the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,there is no carbon leakage,but it exists in the high carbon manufacturing industry.On the whole,pollution haven hypothesis does not hold up in China,and China does not need to limit industry foreign trade to reduce the emission of CO2.But the manufacturing industry will still be the main engine of the economic growth,and therefore our country should make an effective low-carbon policy,introduce advanced technology,increase R&D investment into lowcarbon technologies,and upgrade and transform the original equipment to change the backward mode of production. 相似文献
48.
经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测 --以江苏省江阴市为例 总被引:30,自引:1,他引:30
结构决定功能,把握土地利用结构变化的趋势,调整社会经济发展的策略。优化土地利用结构是土地可持续利用的关键。以经济发达地区江苏省江阴市为例,运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法,构建土地利用结构转移的概率矩阵,预测江阴市2005年和2010年的土地利用结构,并分析其变化特征,以此来研究经济发达地区近期内可能的土地利用结构变化规律。模拟结果表明,经济发达地区土地利用结构变化存在着非农化趋势加快.农地数量减少加速的现象,如果为保证耕地的数量平衡,则可能导致农地内部结构极其不合理。根据研究结果,提出适当释放农地,促进经济发展;运用经济杆杠,提高非农用地利用效率;重视耕地质量,改善生态环境的政策建议。 相似文献
49.
This paper develops a methodology of proper scale analysis for regional industry development, which can be used in industry planning with the consideration of regional resource capacities. In the face of different data sources and even data scarcity, alternative methods based on linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms for calculating the resource intensity factors are designed. Based on the empirical study of industrialization, initial scenarios of industry development were set. Using HSY algorithm, sensitive industries that may cause exceeding regional resource capacity can be identified, and the risk of exceeding can be predicted and expressed in probability. Furthermore, a proper scale range can be designed for these sensitive industries according to resource capacity. Taking the case of Dalian city in China, this paper estimated the regional urban development plan, various resources capacities were studied, and land resources were estimated to be the most critical resource for the city. The land resource depletion intensities of different industries are calculated by quadratic programming algorithm. Under the constraint of 427.56 km2 available industrial land resources, the electronic and power industries have the most significant impact on total land use, if the scale of power industry exceeds 1.27 billion USD, the probability of land resource capacity breakthrough will be 50%. 相似文献
50.
Shinya Inazumi Hiroyasu Ohtsu Yu Otake Makoto Kimura Masashi Kamon 《Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management》2009,11(1):55-64
An evaluation method that can express the local leakage of leachate from joint sections in steel pipe sheet pile (SPSP) cutoff
walls is discussed in this study. In particular, the evaluation of environmental feasibility (containment of leachates containing
toxic substances) considering a three-dimensional arrangement and hydraulic conductivity distribution of the joint sections
in the SPSP cutoff wall is compared with an evaluation that uses the equivalent hydraulic conductivity. This equivalent hydraulic
conductivity assumes that the joint section and the steel pipe are integrated; therefore, the hydraulic conductivity is substituted
with a uniform permeable layer. However, in an evaluation that employs the equivalent hydraulic conductivity, it is difficult
to consider the local leakage of leachate containing toxic substances from the joint sections in the SPSP cutoff wall. It
was established that evaluations of the environmental feasibility of SPSP cutoff walls with joint sections must take into
account the local leakage of leachates containing toxic substances from the joint sections. Also, it was clarified that technologies
that lower the hydraulic conductivities of joint sections in SPSP cutoff walls and also facilitate the use of sparser joint
arrangements contribute significantly to increasing the environmental feasibility of SPSP cutoff walls at landfill sites. 相似文献