基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

液化石油气槽车泄漏处置专用接头套组的应用探讨

针对消防救援车辆缺乏专业堵漏和倒罐装备、应急处置受限等问题,研究采用专用注压接头套组与消防车配合,通过向事故槽车阀门注水加压或惰性气体的方式实施辅助堵漏,能够实现因地制宜、快速有效地解决现场液化石油气大量泄漏的问题,降低事故危害。     

基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系及协同设计环境研究

本文介绍了基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系框架,提出了可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性协同设计环境要求,从而为进行可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性综合优化设计奠定基础。     

应急修复耦合资源回收的实践-以一起化工企业突发环境事件为例

通过东莞市一起铜氨蚀刻液泄漏引致突发环境事件的应急处理过程,介绍了污染控制和应急修复技术的应用情况,通过将高浓含氨污水蒸发制取NH4Cl产品,以及将污水处理至优于《地表水环境质量标准》（GB3838-2002）之Ⅰ类水质要求,作为我国首例应急修复耦合资源回收制取化工产品的成功案例,为化工类企业突发环境事件的应急处理提供决策参考.     

锅炉过热器爆漏原因的统计分析和预防措施

以100余起公开报道的锅炉过热器爆漏事故案例进行统计分析为基础,将引起过热器爆漏的直接原因归纳为长期超温、短期超温、腐蚀、磨损和焊接缺陷,对产生事故的机理和主要原因进行了探讨和归类,认为运行管理不当是造成过热器爆漏的最重要方面。分析并提出了设计、安装、制造、检修和运行管理过程中对爆漏风险贡献最大的各单因素及其成因。针对造成爆漏的根本原因提出了预防措施,为锅炉的安全运行和合理检修提供了科学依据。     

介绍两种震害损失估算方法

本文介绍了两种震害损失估算方法:全概率法和单位面积法。并据此法对宁夏、青海等地震害作了估算。