社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识,有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素,不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节,还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法,比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明,公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度,信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播,其中宜春公众的信任度较高;公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱,尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小;公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关,主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响,即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异,风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

A methodology for assessing urban sustainability: Aalborg commitments baseline review for Riga, Latvia

Both the Aalborg Commitments and the guidance on integrated urban environmental management and sustainable urban transport plans proposed by the EU Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment foresee a baseline review as the first step in developing integrated urban management plans and systems. A baseline review of urban sustainability undertaken in Riga reveals significant discrepencies between the sustainability criteria of the Aalborg Commitments and the: responsibilities and competencies of the municipal government and administration as defined by statutes; policy goals and measures defined in municipal planning documents; policy goals and measures defined in the Riga Development Plan. To better orient the mandate of the municipality towards sustainable development, municipal statutes should be supplemented to more fully reflect the issues defined by the Aalborg Commitments and should include sustainability as a goal. In order to strengthen the implementation of sustainable development specific policy goals, measures and targets should be formulated for all the Aalborg Commitments issues when revising existing municipal planning documents or developing a municipal sustainable development management plan. An analysis of the European Common Indicators and the State of the Environment in Riga 2001 indicators indicates that they can only partially fulfill a monitoring function for the implementation of the Aalborg Commitments. This highlights a need to better coordinate sustainable development initiatives at the European level. The methodology used for the baseline review in Riga is useful for assessing the status of urban sustainability when preparing integrated urban management plans or systems, but requires testing elsewhere. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Perceived and actual wildfire danger: An economic and spatial analysis study in Colorado (USA)

Over the last 20 years, costs for wildfire initial attack in the U.S. have increased significantly. The increased cost relates to wildfire suppression practices, as well as the growing number of homes in the wildland urban interface. Requiring wildland urban interface residents to pay an annual tax for their wildfire risk could lower costs to the general taxpayer. Willingness-to-pay for wildfire prevention, in relation to both perceived and actual wildfire danger, was the focus of this study. Surveyed Colorado wildland urban interface residents were found to have a high awareness of wildfire risk and were willing-to-pay over $400 annually to reduce this risk. Respondents' beliefs about wildfire frequency were comparable to the wildfire regimes of their areas' pre-European settlement.     

Susceptibility indexing method for irrigation water management planning: applications to K. Menderes river basin, Turkey

A susceptibility indexing method was developed based on vulnerability and quality indices. The contamination susceptibility index (SI) at a given location was calculated by taking the product of the vulnerability index (VI) and the quality index (QI): SI = VI × QI. This method incorporates both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data for a comprehensive index mapping. The DRASTIC index methodology was used for the hydrogeological data evaluations. The quality index calculation procedure based on a water quality classification scheme was introduced to evaluate hydrochemical data. The suggested susceptibility indexing method was applied to the Küçük Menderes river basin located in western Turkey. The susceptibility index map shows both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data related to the contamination problem including areas that should be taken into consideration during water management planning. The index map indicates that the most susceptible groundwater is located along the river channel between Kiraz and Tire towns, in the Selçuk area and along the Fertek stream channel to the north of Torbal? town. The results indicate that the incorporation of both hydrogeological and hydrochemical datasets enables more realistic evaluations than those of an individual dataset to estimate the groundwater contamination susceptibility of an aquifer. The numerical procedure applied could be extended further by including other parameters such as retardation, potential contaminant sources, etc. that affect the water quality in a given basin.     

The role of satellite and decentralized strategies in water resources management

Existing and projected water shortages and related factors have helped focus attention on the need for water reuse. With recent technological advances in wastewater treatment, it is now possible to produce reclaimed water of any quality. Thus, the use of reclaimed water will depend on the reuse opportunities and the cost of the required infrastructure. Historically, centralized wastewater treatment facilities have served the needs of organized societies since the mid 1800s. However, as there are limited options for expansion of most existing centralized facilities, the use of satellite and decentralized wastewater management systems offers significant advantages including being close both to the source of wastewater generation and to potential water reuse applications. The comparative advantages of satellite and decentralized wastewater management systems for a number of water reuse applications are presented and discussed in this paper. Selected case studies are presented to demonstrate the utility of satellite and decentralized wastewater management. Specific issues associated with the application of such systems in existing and in new developments are examined and discussed.     

A review of post-modern management techniques as currently applied to Turkish forestry

This paper reviews the effects of six post-modern management concepts as applied to Turkish forestry. Up to now, Turkish forestry has been constrained, both in terms of its operations and internal organization, by a highly bureaucratic system. The application of new thinking in forestry management, however, has recently resulted in new organizational and production concepts that promise to address problems specific to this Turkish industry and bring about positive changes. This paper will elucidate these specific issues and demonstrate how post-modern management thinking is influencing the administration and operational capacity of Turkish forestry within its current structure.     

Wood bison population recovery and forage availability in northwestern Canada

Forage availability was assessed to determine sustainable stocking rates for eight broadly defined vegetation types (Treed Uplands, Treed Lowlands, Mixed Tall Shrub/Sedge, Closed-canopied Willow, and Open-canopied Willow, Meadow, Wetland Grass, Wetland Sedge) for use by wood bison (Bison bison athabascae), a threatened subspecies, in the Canadian boreal forest of northern Alberta. Clip plots (n=108) were used to sample peak availability of herbs and current annual growth of Salix spp. in late summer. Graminoid wetlands dominated by Carex atherodes, Carex aquatilis, Carex utriculata, Scolochloa festucacea, or Calamagrostis stricta produced 1975-4575 kg ha(-1) of fair to good quality forage, whereas treed stands produced < 250 kg ha(-1) of forb-dominated forage (>85% content), which was below a published 25% foraging efficiency threshold of 263 kg ha(-1) for bison. Upland forests that dominate the region produced < or = 1 animal unit day (AUD) of forage per hectare in summer. Most forest understory plants were of poor forage value, suggesting the potential sustainable stocking rate of such areas was actually < or = 0.3 AUD ha(-1), with even lower rates during winter due to snow cover. Herbaceous wetlands contained approximately 78 AUD ha(-1) of forage, but were considered largely unavailable in summer because of flooding and soft organic soils that make access difficult. Conversion of prime foraging habitat to agricultural land, forest expansion due to fire control, and a warmer and wetter climatic regime after the mid-1900s likely contributed to a regional reduction in carrying capacity. It is hypothesized that substantial recovery of the wood bison population toward historical levels will be constrained in northern Alberta by the availability of summer forage, and the limited extent of graminoid wetlands that provide winter foraging habitat.     

Perceived Effects of Setting Attributes on Visitor Experiences in Wilderness: Variation with Situational Context and Visitor Characteristics

Understanding how setting attributes influence the nature of the visitor experience is crucial to effective recreation management. Highly influential attributes are useful indicators to monitor within a planning framework, such as Limits of Acceptable Change. This study sought to identify the setting attributes perceived to have the most profound effect on the ability to have “a real wilderness experience” and to assess the degree to which attribute importance varied with situational context and visitor characteristics. To this end, exiting hikers were surveyed at moderate and very high use trailheads in Alpine Lakes Wilderness, WA (USA), and Three Sisters Wilderness, OR (USA). They were asked about the degree to which encountering varying levels of different setting attributes would add to or detract from their experience. Attributes with the largest range of effect on experience, based on evaluations of different levels, were considered most important. The most influential attributes were litter and several types of campsite interaction—people walking through camp and number of other groups camping close by. The perceived importance of setting attributes did not vary much between wilderness locations with substantially different use levels, suggesting that conclusions are robust and generalizable across wilderness areas. There also was little difference in the perceptions of day and overnight visitors. In contrast, we found substantial variation in the perceived importance of setting attributes with variation in wilderness experience, knowledge, attachment, and motivation. Our results validate the emphasis of many wilderness management plans on indicators of social interaction, such as number of encounters.     

Increasing exfiltration from pervious concrete and temperature monitoring

Pervious concrete typically has an infiltration rate far exceeding any expectation of precipitation rate. The limiting factor of a retention based pervious concrete system is often defined by how quickly the underlying soil subgrade will infiltrate the water temporarily stored within the concrete and/or aggregate base. This issue is of particular importance when placing a pervious concrete system on compacted fine textured soils. This research describes the exfiltration from twelve pervious concrete plots constructed on a compacted clay soil in eastern Tennessee, USA. Several types of treatments were applied to the clay soil prior to placement of the stone aggregate base and pervious concrete in an attempt to increase the exfiltration rate, including: 1) control – no treatment; 2) trenched – soil trenched and backfilled with stone aggregate; 3) ripped – soil ripped with a subsoiler; and 4) boreholes – placement of shallow boreholes backfilled with sand. The average exfiltration rates were 0.8 cm d⁻¹ (control), 4.6 cm d⁻¹ (borehole), 10.0 cm d⁻¹ (ripped), and 25.8 cm d⁻¹ (trenched). The trenched treatment exfiltrated fastest, followed by the ripped and then the borehole treatments, although the ripped and borehole treatments were not different from one another at the 5% level of significance. The internal temperature of the pervious concrete and aggregate base was monitored throughout the winter of 2006–2007. Although the temperature of the pervious concrete dropped below freezing 24 times, freezing concrete temperatures never coincided with free water being present in the large pervious concrete pores. The coldest recorded air temperature was −9.9 °C, and the corresponding coldest recorded pervious concrete temperature was −7.1 °C. The temperature of the pervious concrete lagged diurnal air temperature changes and was generally buffered in amplitude, particularly when free water was present since the addition of water increases the thermal capacity of the pervious concrete greatly. The temperature of the aggregate base was further buffered to diurnal changes, and no freezing temperatures were recorded.