1995—2020年青海省雷电灾害时空分布及其灾害特征分析

利用1995—2020年青海省雷电灾害资料,研究该区域雷电灾害时空分布特征。结果表明：1995—2006年青海省雷电灾害呈增加趋势;2007—2015年青海省雷电灾害呈下降趋势;2016—2020年青海省雷电灾害呈平稳略有上升趋势。青海省雷电灾害空间分布呈,东多西少、南多北少分布特征,其中,雷灾密集区位于西宁市辖区、大通县、河南县、湟中县和互助县区域。1995—2020年,雷电灾害造成青海省人员伤亡282人,平均11人/a,同时对办公设备,广电、电力系统、通讯系统和住宅等方面也造成了损失,其经济损失达1 247.12万元,平均47.97万元/a。     

Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals indicator framework identifies as an indicator of progress the objective of reducing disaster losses as a proportion of global gross domestic product. This short analysis presents data on this indicator from 1990. In constant 2017 US dollars, both weather-related and non-weather related catastrophe losses have increased, with a 74% increase in the former and 182% increase in the latter since 1990. However, since 1990 both overall and weather/climate losses have decreased as proportion of global GDP, indicating progress with respect to the SDG indicator. Extending this trend into the future will require vigilance to exposure, vulnerability and resilience in the face of uncertainty about the future frequency and magnitude of extreme events.     

The role of lifeline losses in business continuity in the case of Adapazari,Turkey

Despite the fact that one of the main reasons for business discontinuity after the shock of a natural disaster is lifeline outages, individual preparedness and recovery efforts have been given priority. This paper focuses on the significance of lifeline services for business continuity in order to highlight the necessity for collective action to achieve community recovery. Post-disaster research was conducted on a sample of business survivors in the town of Adapazari, which was severely affected by an earthquake in 1999. The study looked into the dependence of businesses on various infrastructure systems and the effects on those businesses of lifeline outages. The findings of the study address the need for community-level actions that are beyond the capability of any individual firm and which will ensure the continuity of business.     

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses.     

泥石流灾害经济损失研究综述

在泥石流灾害研究中,针对泥石流灾害经济损失的研究是预防、应对和管理泥石流灾害风险的基础。结合已有泥石流灾害经济损失研究成果,首先梳理当前泥石流灾害经济损失研究发展近况,对不同经济损失研究方法进行分类和归纳。其次,在简要介绍已有研究方法的基础上,对不同种类研究方法进行评述,分析各类研究方法具有的优势和存在的问题。最后,结合当前泥石流灾害研究的发展趋势和本文研究结果,提出泥石流灾害经济损失研究的启示和展望。     

Models for Prediction and Assessment of Losses of Production Suspending and Cutting in Enterprises

１ＴｈｅＬｏｓｓｅｓｏｆＰｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇ／ＣｕｔｔｉｎｇａｎｄＩｔｓＭｅａｓｕｒｉｎｇＳｃａｌｅ１．１ＴｈｅＬｏｓｓｅｓｏｆＰｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇａｎｄＣｕｔｔｉｎｇＴｈｅｌｏｓｓｅｓｏｆｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｓｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇａｎｄｃｕｔｔｉｎｇｍｅａｎｔｈｅｌｏｓｓｅｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅｅｎｔｅｒｐｒｉｓｅｓｈａｖｅｔｏｓｔｏｐｏｒｒｅｄｕｃｅｉｔｓｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｐｅｒａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｌｏｗｅｒｓｉｔｓｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｓｃａｌｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｗ…     

STATUS REPORT ON HEAT STORAGE WELLS1

ABSTRACT. The Heat Storage Well concept evolved at TEMPO in 1972. Technical, economic, institutional, and legal aspects of implementing the concept are being studied. Heat Storage Wells offer the possibility of conserving a substantial part of the heat energy now wasted in generating electricity and of reducing thermal pollution caused by the waste heat. Large thermal electric power plants would produce heat at useful temperatures such as 300–400°F. Combined electric- and heat-generating systems will require low-cost, low-loss storage of large amounts of hot water for periods of 90 to 180 days to serve both electric loads and seasonally-varying heat loads. Compared to conventional electricity-only systems, combined electricity-heat systems can save more than 20 percent in energy, reduce the cost of both electricity and heat, and eliminate the need for cooling water or towers. Possibilities for changes in legal and institutional practices are suggested, such as making resource-allocation decisions on the basis of energy units rather than dollars.     

震灾经济损失评估的遗传神经网络模型

地震灾害造成的直接经济损失与很多因素有关:致灾因子强度,主要包括地震震级、发震时间及地点、震源深度和地震动输入参数等;受灾体密度,主要包括衡量城市经济和社会发展水平的人口密度、城市密度、建筑物密度和财产密度等;城市抵抗地震灾害的能力.这里选取震级、地震动输入参数、人均国内生产总值GDP、受灾面积和灾区人口密度作为网络的输入节点,用直接经济损失率作为网络的输出节点,建立了基于遗传神经网络的震灾经济损失评估模型,对地震灾害所造成的经济损失进行评估,实例验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于GIS的地震现场灾害损失评估系统

地震现场灾害损失评估地理信息系统(MapEDLES 2001 for Windows)是通过组件技术实现的GIS应用系统.系统实现了数据库管理、地图创建、浏览查询、地震破坏抽样统计与灾害损失评估具有集地图、统计图、表格、文字于一体的评估报告自动快速生成、空间数据远程交换、现场视频图像管理与播放等功能.介绍了该系统的灾害损失评估原理、设计思路和系统功能等.     

环境问题的经济损失估算

对环境问题造成的经济损失进行估算是科学决策实现可持续发展的一项基础性工作。本文运用当前的经济损失估算方法,对我国环境问题所带来的经济损失进行了估算。