基于模糊理论的导弹贮存使用环境分析

目的编制导弹贮存使用环境谱,聚类分析导弹贮存使用环境,指导各地域导弹贮存及战备部署工作。方法针对不同环境因素对导弹寿命的影响,收集各地域温度、湿度等影响导弹可靠性的自然因素数据,编制导弹贮存使用环境谱。采用模糊聚类分析,将导弹贮存使用环境进行分类,并基于一定阈值确定最佳分类。结果收集南部某地域温度等影响导弹贮存使用可靠性的环境因素数据,编制温-湿度环境谱,发现该地域比较潮湿,对导弹寿命影响较大。整理10个地域的腐蚀环境数据库,采用最大树法将贮存环境分类,确定最佳分类阈值为0.9,将贮存环境分为7类。结论通过编制导弹贮存使用环境谱,并对贮存使用环境进行聚类分析,可以为各战区评估导弹寿命和调整导弹部署提供科学支撑。     

武汉城市圈产业发展的空间优化

武汉城市圈是指以武汉市为中心,包括黄石、鄂州、黄冈、孝感、咸宁、仙桃、潜江和天门等周边8市共同组成的城市密集区。该区域具有悠久的产业发展传统,其历史轨迹可分为3个阶段：第一阶段（1840~1949）为产业发展起步时期,第二阶段（1949~1994）为产业结构强化时期,第三阶段（1994~）为产业体系调整时期;与此相适应,区域产业的部门结构和空间结构均呈现典型的集中特征,以2003年区域制造业的增加值为指标,武汉市的空间集中度为50.5％,前10类制造业的产业集中度为60.6％。据此,目前的武汉城市圈是一个松散的“经济联邦”,但存在区域整合的产业、空间和创新基础。以2001~2004年武汉城市圈9城市的统计资料为基础,以制造业分行业的年均增加值和增长率为指标,计算和分析其区域产业发展潜力,结果表明：以钢铁、汽车和电子及通讯设备制造业等为依托,构建区域集群网络,能够充分发挥武汉市的产业组织和创新扩散功能。武汉城市圈应进一步调整产业发展思路,坚持创新驱动路径,通过完善集群网络规划、强化区域空间关联和引导产业集聚发展等政策措施,有效推动具有区域竞争优势的特色产业发展。     

A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

建筑工人不安全行为的模仿与学习的调查与分析

为了控制不安全行为在建筑工人中的传播和流行,基于社会学习理论,通过行为调查、理论分析和案例研究,对建筑工人不安全行为的模仿与学习的方式、过程和影响因素进行了研究,提出了控制不安全行为传播的策略。结果表明:模仿与学习是建筑工人不安全行为复制和传播的重要方式和途径,对新不安全行为产生起着联系和催化作用。建筑工人不安全行为的模仿与学习的方式有视听式、想象式和参与式,其中视听式是最主要方式。建筑工人不安全行为的模仿与学习的影响因素涵盖榜样及其行为、模仿者和模仿学习过程。其中,榜样的权威性和影响力是最重要的增强因素,不安全行为后果的威慑力是最重要的抑制因素。     

Visualization and analysis of dispersion process of combustible dust in a transparent Siwek 20-L chamber

Dust explosion severities are closely associated with dust dispersion behaviors. To characterize the dispersion process of dust cloud, visualization experiments were conducted by using a transparent Siwek 20-L chamber. Dispersion processes of typical carbonaceous dust were recorded by a high-speed camera and, with the image processing technique, the qualitative analysis based on the transmission of dust cloud was carried out. Results have evidenced the three consecutive stages of dust dispersion process: the fast injection stage of dust particles, the stabilization stage and the sedimentation stage of dust cloud. The motion of dust particles and the variations of dust cloud in space and time can be clearly distinguished. In the stabilization stage, the good uniformity of dust dispersion is achieved when the deviation of transmission data at different locations reaches to the minimum value. Under different nominal dust concentrations, the time periods for dust dispersion stabilization are found to be significantly different, suggesting that different dust concentrations should correspond to different ignition delay in order to accurately measure the explosion characteristics in the Siwek 20-L chamber. Moreover, it is found that the decrease trend of transmission with increasing nominal dust concentration will become gradually leveling off, different from the inversely proportional relationship according to the Bouguer's law, and this indicates that the actual dust concentration will be lower than the nominal concentration or the dust cannot be fully dispersed at the case of high dust concentration. According to the experiment, when the nominal dust concentration exceeds to 1000 g/m³, the transmission will no longer vary visibly.     

Analysis and assessment of the Qingdao crude oil vapor explosion accident: Lessons learnt

A devastating crude oil vapor explosion accident, which killed 62 people and injured 136, occurred on November 22, 2013. It was one of the most disastrous vapor cloud explosion accidents that happened in Qingdao's storm drains in China. It was noted that blast overpressure and flying debris were the main causes of human deaths, personal injuries and structure damages. Two months after the accident, it was reported that there were three contentious issues in the investigation report. First issue was the discrepancy between the temperature of the crude oil vapor explosive limits which were measured by the investigation panel and the temperature reported by the local fire department. Second issue was the contradiction between the upper explosive limit and vapor pressure of the crude oil vapor. The last issue was the location of the ignition source which led to the explosion.In the present study some specific features of this accident and various causes led to the explosion, high casualties and severe damages were analyzed. Three contentious issues in the official investigation report were investigated and tested in detail. The first element tested was the explosive limits and limiting oxygen concentration of the crude oil vapor at different temperatures. Based on theoretical analysis and field investigations, the last two elements in the report were analyzed from multiple perspectives. Based on the TNO Multi-Energy model and PROBIT equations, damage probability of affected people at the leaking site was also estimated. The investigation concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems. Key steps were explicitly discussed for improving the hazard identification and risk assessment of similar accidents in the future.     

2009年夏季黄山云雾水化学特征及来源分析

利用09年夏季在黄山光明顶气象站采集的25个云雾水样本及气象站常规资料,分析了云雾过程雾水的化学特征、污染来源与微物理特性.结果表明,观测期间云雾水呈弱酸性,平均值pH值为6.4,主要的离子浓度由大到小排列为:SO42->NH4+>Ca2+>NO3->Na+>Cl-,表明二次污染物对黄山云雾水的贡献较大.统计分析显示,各云雾过程中雾水组分变化,主要缘于不同云雾过程中污染源与海洋源的贡献率不同.结合后向轨迹进一步分析显示,影响气团主要来源于海洋和周边地区,不同气团影响下雾水离子组分及云雾微物理特征差别明显.     

巢湖入湖河流分类及污染特征分析

为识别巢湖入湖河流主要污染特征和来源,以2008年入湖河流水质监测参数和河流入湖区藻类生物量数据为基础,采用多元统计方法对入湖河流进行了聚类和污染等级分级,并判别了湖区藻类生物量与河流营养盐输入负荷的关系.结果表明,入湖河流可分为3组,其水质分别受城市污染、水土保持和面源污染影响,其中城市污染控制型河流输入到巢湖中高锰...     

Projection pursuit cluster model and its application in water quality assessment

One of the difficulties frequently encountered in water quality assessment is that there are many factors and they cannot be assessed according to one factor, all the effect factors associated with water quality must be used. In order to overcome this issues the projection pursuit principle is introduced into water quality assessment, and projection pursuit cluster(PPC) model is developed in this study. The PPC model makes the transition from high dimension to one-dimension. In other words, based on the PPC model, multifactor problem can be converted to one factor problem. The application of PPC model can be divided into four parts: (1) to estimate projection index function Q(a) ; (2) to find the right projection direction a ; (3) to calculate projection characteristic value of the i th sample zi, and (4) to draw comprehensive analysis on the basis of zi. On the other hand, the empirical formula of cutoff radius R is developed, which is benefit for the model to be used in practice. Finally, a case study of water quality assessment is proposed in this paper. The results showed that the PPC model is reasonable, and it is more objective and less subjective in water quality assessment. It is a new method for multivariate problem comprehensive analysis.     

贵州喀斯特峰丛区石漠化土地调查与评价——以毕节老街村为例

脆弱喀斯特生态环境在人口压力和不合理经济活动作用下日益恶化,土地石漠化已成为喀斯特地区最严重的生态环境问题之一,直接威胁着当地居民的生存与发展。在对老街村进行实地踏勘和采样的基础上,调用SPSS软件分析,结果显示:地形坡度、表土层厚度、岩石裸露程度是引起该区土地景观分异的主导因素,其方差累积贡献率达81.224%。在此基础上,以地貌面、土壤类型、裸石景观特点为主导标志,并结合灌草分布,以GPS为定位手段,借助GIS平台,完成老街村土地类型单元调查和制图;并利用多因子得分的几何平均数综合评价石漠化土地适宜性,评价结果与实际吻合较好,为土地生态设计和生态修复奠定基础。