基于PM2.5监测点空间聚类的关中五市空气污染区域识别

区域大气污染联防联控是空气质量管理的重要举措,准确识别空气污染区域对联防联控措施有重大意义.本研究采用陕西省关中五市（西安、咸阳、宝鸡、渭南、铜川）国控和省控全部90个监测点的小时级PM_2.5浓度监测数据,运用邻接约束层次聚类方法对监测点进行空间聚类,并利用泰森多边形和曲线平滑等技术识别空气污染区域.结果表明：1关中五市空气污染存在跨行政区划的区域性特征,本研究识别出2个特征显著不同的空气污染区域（区域1和区域2）;2区域2的PM_2.5浓度在统计上显著高于区域1,且重度和严重污染天数也显著高于区域1;3空气污染区域与地形特征关系密切,区域1均为高海拔区县,而区域2均为低海拔区县.依据空气污染区域的不同特征,在区域污染程度存在显著差异时,应当采取不同等级的污染防控措施,以减少对关中五市43%的国土面积、23个区县、639万人及3355亿元国内生产总值的影响,使区域空气污染防控措施更加科学、合理与精准.同时,空气污染区域的划分对缺失数据和不同空气污染等级表现稳健.     

超细三七粉最小引燃温度实验研究

为研究三七粉着火燃烧的参数,用粉尘云引燃温度装置和粉尘层引燃温度装置,对三七粉的最小引燃温度(MIT)进行实验研究。分别研究喷吹压力、质量浓度、粉尘层厚度对MIT的影响。结果表明:三七粉尘云的质量在0.2 g时最小引燃温度随着喷尘压力的增加先减小再增大,在0.3 g到0.6 g时最小引燃温度随着喷尘压力的增加而增大;在压力20 kPa、30 kPa时随着质量浓度的增大,粉尘云引燃温度先减小后增大,在40 kPa到60 kPa时,随着质量浓度的增大,粉尘云引燃温度增大;粉尘云最小引燃温度高于粉尘层最小引燃温度;三七粉尘云的最小引燃温度399℃,粉尘层最小引燃温度240℃。     

Evaluation of carrying capacity of city clusters in China with the example of the Blue Economic Zone of Shandong Peninsula

The conflict between city development and urban carrying capacity is getting ever prominent. In order to study and predict the restriction factors and prominent problems in the development of the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone as well as promote the transfer of economic development pattern in this region, this study starts from four single factor carrying capacity indicators of water, earth, transportation and environment in the city and its comprehensive carrying capacity indicator, evaluates and analyzes its carrying capacity and then papooses policy suggestions for improving its carrying capacity.     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

基于云证据理论的地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制预警决策方法研究

为实现对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制的预警,结合工程实践和标准法规构建了包括监测项目和巡视项目共7个指标的评价体系,并将其划分为一般风险、显著风险、高风险和严重风险4个等级;基于监测信息和专家评价值确定指标特征值,采用云模型构建指标基本可信度分配,基于D-S证据理论对指标进行多层融合,利用蒙特卡洛模拟对建筑物变形影响因素进行敏感性分析;以武汉轨道交通7号线土建工程第3标段金银湖村5栋建筑物为例,对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形的安全警情状态进行评价。评价结果表明:4栋建筑物处于显著风险等级,1栋建筑物为一般风险等级,并结合蒙特卡洛模拟对风险最大的建筑物的监测点的影响因素进行敏感性分析,可为建筑物变形安全控制提供决策建议。     

云微物理特性及云滴有效半径参数化:一次降水层状云的飞机观测资料结果

全球及区域气候模式中云滴有效半径的参数化对于理解云的辐射效应特别是气溶胶间接效应是非常重要的。本文利用延安地区(位于中国西北地区)一次降水层状云的飞机观测资料,首先给出该次过程的云微物理特性包括云滴数浓度(Nc),云水含量(Qc),云滴的半径(Rm),体积半径(Rv),以及有效半径(Re),云滴谱离散度(ε)以及Re/Rv比值因子β;并指出云滴谱离散度ε与云滴数浓度Nc有着很好的递减关系式,所对应的关系式可以表述为ε=0.579-7.42×10-4Nc+4.2×10-7Nc2。进一步,发现云滴尺度谱采用Lognormal分布函数,Gamma分布函数以及Weibull分布函数所参数化的云滴有效半径与观测结果较为一致。值得指出的是,基于Lognormal分布函数的参数化能够更好地描述云滴有效半径。该云滴有效半径的参数化结果将会加强对于气溶胶在中国西北地区间接辐射强迫的认识。     

Application of Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network in explosion risk analysis of fixed offshore platform

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is routinely used in Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA), as CFD-based ERA offers a good understanding of underlying physics accidental loads. Generally, simplifications were incorporated into CFD-based ERA to limit the number of simulations. Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) is a frequently used simplification in the dispersion part of the CFD-based ERA procedure. However, its accuracy is questionable in the complex and congested environment such as offshore facility. Furthermore, in explosion part, some specific techniques, e.g. linear/double bin-interpolated techniques have been proposed while the corresponding accuracy is still unknown since the developers did not yet check their accuracy by considering the explosion computational data as the benchmark.This study presents a more accurate algorithm, namely Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN) and accordingly proposes the frameworks regarding BRANN-based models for the CFD-based ERA procedure. Firstly, the framework is proposed to develop the Transient-BRANN (TBRANN) model for transient dispersion study. In addition, the framework to determine the BRANN model for explosion study is developed. The proposed frameworks are explained by a case study of the fixed offshore platform. Consequently, this study confirms the more accuracy of the TBRANN model over FCA and the accuracy of BRANN model for CFD-based ERA.     

长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址优化

为优化长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址,建立溢油应急需求水域风险评价体系,采用云模型对其评价,进而构建以加权距离最小为目标的溢油应急设备点选址模型。采用自适应差分进化算法(Adaptive Differential Evolution,ADE)对其求解。将模型应用于九江港的溢油应急设备点选址,最终解算选址于瑞昌港区及彭泽港区,此评估结果与九江港实际规划相符。     

煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度试验研究

为研究半煤岩巷道中岩粉质量分数和煤的挥发分与煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度的关系,选取挥发分差异较大的5种煤样以相同比例配制煤岩混合型粉尘,利用粉尘云最小点火温度测定仪进行煤岩混合型粉尘试验。结果表明,当煤岩混合型粉尘中岩粉质量分数低于40%时,岩粉的混合会导致混合型粉尘云最低着火温度发生小幅度波动;当岩粉质量分数高于40%时,煤岩混合型粉尘最低着火温度会随岩粉质量分数的增加而大幅度升高;挥发分质量分数越小的煤粉,其混合型粉尘云最低着火温度越容易受岩粉质量分数的影响。     

基于包络线的云相似度及其在安全评价中的应用

在安全评价中,专家给出的数据一般带有定性和定量、模糊性和随机性、不确定性等特点。为了表示这些特点,并将这些信息进行分析、合并,进而达到化简的目的,提出一种基于包络线的云模型方法。该方法用云模型表示专家对某一问题给定的数据,形成多位专家对该问题的多个云模型。同时根据云模型形态特点,构建云模型的上下包络线,并对包络线之间的云滴区域进行积分。最终通过积分区域重叠部分与积分区域的比例关系来判断云模型的相似程度,达到将这些专家信息化简的目的。给出了4种基于相似度的评价语义化简规则。应用该方法分析巷道冒顶风险中稳定岩层距巷道顶板表面距离的中度风险语义。结果表明,两位专家对于该问题的看法既有联系又有区别。最后给出了该算法的优点。