洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系及防控方案研究

研究洞庭湖区血吸虫病人水相互作用关系及传染防控,是推进湖区社会经济稳定健康发展的重要保障。从水文情势、产业发展、居民行为、城乡建设四方面探讨了洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系,并运用系统动力学模型,设置教育优先方案、生态保护优先方案和城镇化推进方案对其防控方案进行系统仿真模拟和对比分析,研究结果表明:(1)水文等生态因素对于人水接触的影响逐步减少,而社会经济因素则显得越来越重要。(2)系统动力学模型能有效展示血吸虫病各影响因素之间的关系,是研究血吸虫病防控的有效方法之一。(3)依据仿真模拟结果,城镇化推进方案是经济增长、城乡协调、环境友好的最优血防方案。     

Application of statistical modeling to optimize a coastal water quality monitoring program

The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects, corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately $183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs.     

IFTCIP: An Integrated Optimization Model for Environmental Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval-fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained integer programming (IFTCIP) method is developed for supporting environmental management under uncertainty. The IFTCIP improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly incorporated within a general mixed integer linear programming framework. It has advantages in uncertainty reflection, policy investigation, risk assessment, and capacity-expansion analysis in comparison to the other optimization methods. Moreover, it can help examine the risk of violating system constraints and the associated consequences. The developed method is applied to the planning for facility expansion and waste-flow allocation within a municipal solid waste management system. Violations of capacity constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflects tradeoffs between the system cost and the constraint-violation risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for both binary and continuous variables have been generated under different risk levels. They are useful for generating desired decision alternatives with minimized system cost and constraint-violation risk under various environmental, economic, and system-reliability conditions. Generally, willingness to take a higher risk of constraint violation will guarantee a lower system cost; a strong desire to acquire a lower risk will run into a higher system cost.     

农作物病虫害专业化防治服务对农药施用强度的影响

农药过量施用已造成严重的负外部性。推行农作物病虫害专业化统防统治服务可以实现安全、科学、合理用药,有效缓解农业面源污染问题和提升食品的质量安全水平。为了探究病虫害专业化统防统治服务在缓解农业面源污染方面的效果,文章利用全国七省水稻病虫害专业化防治服务调查数据,基于倾向得分匹配方法(PSM),剔除样本自选择内生性问题的影响,分析农户将水稻病虫害防治环节外包给植保专业化服务组织("统防统治")与"自防自治"户相比使用农药的种类和施用次数的差异,即植保专业化防治是否取得了较好的环境效应。研究结果表明,植保专业化服务显著减少了农药施用强度,提高了无公害低毒农药的采用比例;并且其效果在小农户和规模种植大户之间存在明显差异,与采纳病虫害统防统治服务的规模种植大户相比,小规模种植户在采纳病虫害统防统治服务后在降低农药施用强度,提高无公害低毒农药的应用比例方面效果更显著。基于此,文章建议强化对植保专业化防治项目的财政扶持力度,提高病虫害专业化防治覆盖率;重点鼓励小规模种植户采纳病虫害统防统治服务;鼓励农户土地流转,促进农业生产规模化经营,加强对种植专业户的病虫害防治方面的培训和引导,并着力发挥专业大户的示范带头作用,提高统防统治的效率,从而促进食品质量安全水平的提升和农业生态环境的保护。     

The Financial Impact of Different Stormwater Fee Types: A Case Study of Two Municipalities in Virginia

Eight stormwater user fees (SUFs) were applied to the City of Roanoke and the Town of Blacksburg, Virginia, to determine the effect each has on how land use type impacts the sources of revenue. Roanoke is larger and includes more industrial areas, but less multifamily impervious areas than Blacksburg, which translates differently in the SUFs. Residential parcels comprise the highest percentage of the revenue in all eight SUFs in Blacksburg and four in Roanoke. For both municipalities, two specific SUFs consistently comprised the highest percentage burden for residential homeowners while three other SUFs demonstrated the highest burden for commercial parcels. Open space parcels contain little impervious area, yet account for up to 27% of the revenue in the Blacksburg Area fee structure. Industrial parcels comprise more revenue in Roanoke, averaging 10.1‐4.5% in Blacksburg. Fee types that are easier to administer (e.g., Flat fees) may not fully represent the stormwater contribution from the parcels. SUF types that more accurately represent the stormwater burden on the municipality are also more administratively intensive and are more variable with fee factors.     

以聚己内酯作为生物反硝化固体碳源的研究

为解决水体因低碳氮比而导致脱氮效率差的问题,将颗粒聚己内酯(PCL)重新塑形为阶梯环状,研究其作为反硝化过程的生物膜载体与固相碳源的反硝化性能。结果表明,在静态实验中,平均反硝化速率为8.57 mg NO3-N/(L·h);反硝化过程为零级反应。连续填充床实验中,超过90%的硝酸盐可被去除,出水NO2-N质量浓度低于0.20 mg/L;出水NH3-N质量浓度略有上升;出水溶解性有机碳(DOC)先上升后降低至1 mg/L左右。电子扫描显微镜扫描显示,PCL阶梯环反应表面空隙率较高,表面生物膜以杆菌为主,反应后被明显腐蚀;液相色谱检测显示PCL阶梯环分子量反应前后略有下降,其结构未受到破坏;表明该材料适合作为反硝化反应的碳源的同时,又可以作为载体供微生物附着生长。     

Biodiversity Conservation, Ecosystem Functioning, and Economic Incentives under Cocoa Agroforestry Intensification

Abstract:  World chocolate demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisions about how to meet this challenge will have profound effects on tropical rainforests and wild species in cocoa-producing countries. Cocoa, "the chocolate tree," is traditionally produced under a diverse and dense canopy of shade trees that provide habitat for a high diversity of organisms. The current trend to reduce or eliminate shade cover raises concerns about the potential loss of biodiversity. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed the ecological consequences and economic trade-offs under different management options in cocoa plantations. Here we describe the relationships between ant ecology (species richness, community composition, and abundance) and vegetation structure, ecosystem functions, and economic profitability under different land-use management systems in 17 traditional cocoa forest gardens in southern Cameroon. We calculated an index of profitability, based on the net annual income per hectare. We found significant differences associated with the different land-use management systems for species richness and abundance of ants and species richness and density of trees. Ant species richness was significantly higher in floristically and structurally diverse, low-intensity, old cocoa systems than in intensive young systems. Ant species richness was significantly related to tree species richness and density. We found no clear relationship between profitability and biodiversity. Nevertheless, we suggest that improving the income and livelihood of smallholder cocoa farmers will require economic incentives to discourage further intensification and ecologically detrimental loss of shade cover. Certification programs for shade-grown cocoa may provide socioeconomic incentives to slow intensification.     

对由制定抗震救灾工作预案引起地震误传的平息与启示

本文概述了在制定和部署抗震救灾工作预案时，所引起地震误传事件的经过、对社会造成的影响，以及采取的对策和所汲取的教训。     

涝渍地暗管排水示范工程建设有关问题研究

结合中日专项技术合作四湖项目的具体实践,指出了暗管工程规划中排水调查的内容和重点,就如何评判暗管排水的必要性和确定暗管设计排水量进行了探讨,分析了暗管排水与规划单元排灌系统的关系。排水调查是农田基本建设实施过程中不可缺少的一个环节,就涝渍地治理改造而言,调查的重点是要弄清排水不良的原因和取得解决问题的基础资料。为了制定符合实际的农田排水规划实施方案,可从土壤类型、土壤承载力、降雨后地表积水状况、土壤透水性和地下水位等对规划单元内的农田是否需要暗管排水作出判断。对水田而言,在田面水排除后,领先暗管要排除地表残留水和过剩的土壤重力水,据此决定暗管设计排水量。对于旱田,渗入土壤中以重力水存在的过乘水需要通过暗管排除,据此决定暗管设计排水量。暗管工程适于江河中下游地势低洼、排水不良的农田,当明排不能有效地降低地下水位满足作物生长时,有必要采取暗管排水。