三峡库区区域经济形势及其发展战略探讨

长江三峡工程是举世瞩目的大型水利水电工程,库区的经济发展问题与相关生态环境问题同样引人关注。三峡库区经济的发展不仅有利于整个长江上游地区的全面发展,而且关系到库区百万移民的生计和社会稳定的大局。基于区域经济理论,运用SWOT方法对三峡库区经济发展的现状进行了分析评价。通过库区经济发展优势、劣势、机遇和挑战因素的客观分析,结果发现,特色生态农业、沿江旅游、物流业将成为库区产业的优先发展方向,与民生相关的移民安稳致富、城乡统筹发展等政策则成为库区经济战略的重要选择。旨在进一步整合库区资源、优化产业结构、提高经济增长质量、提升整体经济实力,为库区制定具针对性的区域经济发展战略提供有益参考。
     

Mitigating the Effect of Development on Bats in England with Derogation Licensing

The Convention on Biological Diversity has catalyzed worldwide awareness of threats to biological diversity and stimulated global conservation strategies. These have led to national and international legislation and have generated debate about the most effective conservation actions. Under the EU Habitats Directive, all member states are obliged to establish a system for strict protection of species listed in Annex IV(a), which includes all bats. In England, this obligation has resulted in legislation that allows for derogation from strict protection under license, provided activities are undertaken to mitigate any potential negative effects on bat numbers. We used an evidence‐based approach to assess the cost‐effectiveness of mitigation strategies and the English bat‐derogation licensing process as a whole. We analyzed data from 389 bat derogation licenses issued in England from 2003 to 2005 relating to 1776 roosts and 15 species to determine the nature and extent of development and mitigation activities and their effects on bats. Overall the effects of licensed activities on roosts were negative. Despite the level of protection afforded to bats, the majority (68%) of roosts for which derogation licenses were issued were destroyed. There were species‐specific differences in the probability of roosts being destroyed, and impacts on roosts did not reflect a species’ conservation status. Information provided by licensees was inadequate and inconsistent. Most licensees (67%) failed to submit postdevelopment reports, and postdevelopment monitoring was conducted at only 19% of sites. Despite a minimum of £4.13 million spent on mitigation structures for bats from 2003 to 2005, it was unclear whether the licensing process meets EU obligations. On the basis of our results, we believe there is a need to overhaul the licensing process, to establish a comprehensive, standardized postdevelopment monitoring system, and to demonstrate that mitigation is commensurate with Britain's legal obligations. Mitigando el Efecto del Desarrollo sobre los Murciélagos en Inglaterra con Licencias de Derogación     

绵竹县社会经济发展战略的系统动力学研究

摆脱传统思维方式的束缚,采用科学的、系统的、程序化的方法制定我国县级经济和社会发展战略,是我国现代化建设提出的一项艰巨任务。本文旨在通过介绍“绵竹县经济社会发展总体规划(系统工程应用)研究”的核心部分——绵竹县社会经济系统动态仿真模型设计与发展战略的仿真实验择优,阐述系统工程的原理和运用数学模型方法对县级社会经济系统进行总体设计、预演和优化的一点体会。     

Mitigation of hydrogen fluoride aerosols by dry powders

Fluid bed tests were used to determine overall reaction rates for eight different dry powders of low hazard and toxicity before and after reaction with HF. In flow chamber tests, a representative oxide, hydroxide and carbonate were used to measure the efficiency of mitigation of an HF aerosol cloud. The results show that dry powders provide a valid alternative to water spray mitigation. Powder efficiencies are higher than water efficiencies at constant weight ratio.

At present, no attempt has been made to provide any technical designs or layouts for powder mitigation systems. However, the technology for smaller systems is available through manufacturers of dry powder chemical fire extinguisher equipment. When these powders are kept dry and under nitrogen atmosphere, a shelf life of several years can be expected.     

数据库语言在震害预测中的应用

震害预测的软件程序一般都是基于结构分析的原理，大都采用ＦＯＲＴＲＡＮ语言来编写，而震害预测工作中又大量用到分组和排序，这又是数据库语言的特长。本文介绍了在震害预测工作中应用数据库语言的一些体会，主要讨论了两种语言的接口问题。     

论减灾效益的显现类型与减灾心理

减灾效益的获得离不开民众的参与,而其参与意识又与减灾效益的可见度有关。减灾效益越能迅速、明确地被人们见到或预见到,人们的减灾参与意识越高。在客观现实中,减灾效益的显现时间具有各种类型,而人们主观意识中“见”到的类型却又可能有质的差异。本文划分了减灾效益的显现类型并提出与论述了与其有关的一些问题,分析了其与主观意识之间的复杂关系,以及影响人们的减灾参与心理的作用机制。进而探讨了如何通过这些关系、机制的认识与把握,效益意识引导,对减灾见效时间意识的人为控制等途径提高民众的减灾参与意识与减灾效益。     

IDENTIFICATION OF AQUIFER DISPERSIVITIES: METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a method for estimating aquifer dispersivities in solute transport models. Sensitivity equations are derived for the calculation of sensitivity coefficients. A modified Gauss-Newton algorithm is used to perform the least-squares minimization. A statistical procedure is outlined to assess reliability of the estimated parameters. The solute transport model is solved by the upstream weighted, multiple cell balance method which combines the concepts of local mass balance and finite element approximations. A one-dimensional solute transport problem in a vertical column system is first used to illustrate the inverse technique. A second example considers the parameter identification problem for three-dimensional solute transport with a unidirectional steady and uniform flow field. The third example solves the parameter identification problem in a three-dimensional, stream-aquifer, solute transport system with steady state flow. Numerical experiments are conducted to study data requirements for parameter identification.     

Riera de Caldes new town: the restriction of growth

The historical and regional context to the development of a planning strategy for Barcelona is examined, providing an explanation of the obstacles to development of new towns in the region, and that of Riera de Caldes in particular. The paper analyses the reasons for the failure to develop the new town, and its subsequent reversion to rural uses and a place of pilgrimage for environmentalists.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.