Comparing and evaluating the nationally determined contributions of the top six emitters under the Paris Agreement goals

ABSTRACT

Comparing and evaluating the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is an important element in global stocktake in the post-Paris climate negotiations, aimed at closing the emissions gap with the Paris Agreement goals. To date, however, there has still been no explicit guideline or method. By applying emissions allowance allocated by 16 schemes as benchmarks, this paper tries to compare and evaluate the NDCs of the top six emitters, which jointly account for about 70% of the world’s CO₂ emissions. Results show that the four developed countries’ NDCs lack ambition with respect to most allocations under 2°C and all under 1.5°C, indicating they need to substantially ratchet up their NDCs and lead elevating mitigation. Evaluating cumulative emissions is more likely to clarify the ambition and fairness of China’s NDC. If considering cumulative emissions, China’s NDC is aligned with the median of cumulative allowances under 2°C and within the 1.5°C range. The Paris Agreement invited the Parties to communicate the mid-century low emissions strategies. This paper also tries to explore the mid-century mitigation in the perspective of allocations, which might provide decision-makers with some useful information when envisaging the post-NDC mitigation.     

快速城市化背景下的防洪减灾对策研究

城市化改变了洪涝灾害风险的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的脆弱性,相应地,洪涝灾害的风险也随之加大了。在这种大环境下,采取合理可行的防洪减灾对策来降低洪涝风险就变得非常重要了。笔者认为应采取工程措施和非工程措施相结合的防洪减灾对策,工程措施方面主要包括提高防洪堤的防洪标准、提高城市排水能力、提高城市广场和绿地的占地面积、铺设楼顶蓄水池和地下蓄水池,非工程措施方面主要包括做好防洪规划、加强防洪评价,进行洪涝灾害风险分析,加强洪水预报预警工作,普及城市居民的防灾意识。     

环境税条件下项目可进入与退出期权博弈分析

环境税是解决当前日趋严重的环境与经济发展冲突问题的有效手段之一,研究其如何影响投资者进入与退出项目的竞争策略是更好地制定环境税收政策的前提。与现有文献不同,本文应用期权博弈理论,构建煤电项目双寡头期权博弈模型,分进入和退出两种情况分析项目最优转换策略,并且定量分析环境税税率对最优转换临界值的影响。结果表明:环境税税率与最优转换临界值呈正比关系,即环境税率越低,项目越容易进入,并且更加难以退出;当存在竞争威胁时,投资者会加速进入与退出项目,当环境税强度逐渐变大时,将超过项目相互竞争的影响并起主要作用;在进入情况时存在等待、抢先进入和同时进入均衡,在退出情况时存在不退出、抢先退出和同时退出均衡,最后,分别给出各个均衡条件下环境税政策及影响,为政府制定环境税政策提供一种分析思路。     

Regional Economic Types and Development Strategy of Small Towns in Suburb Beijing

The purpose of this article is to classify the regional economic types and development dynamics of small towns in suburb Beijing by applying the classification methods developed by Nelson's method and Location Quotient method into 183 small towns in Beijing.Four types of small towns are thus identified,including urban agriculture dominated towns,manufacturing dominated towns,service industry dominated towns and comprehensive type towns with balanced economic development.Within the environment of geographical information system,the spatial distribution pattern of four types of small towns with their evolution trend is analyzed.The results indicate that four types of small towns have obvious 'core-periphery' spatial structure but with different functional orientations and evolution mechanisms.Based on this,the different development strategies for each type of small towns are summarized,providing a scientific reference for the differentiating planning and development strategies of these small towns.     

人口,资源和经济制约下的城市环境战略目标：以沈阳市为例

本文在探讨城市环境战略目标制约因素的基础上,结合沈阳市的主要城市功能和环境问题,分析了沈阳市2000年环境战略目标的制约因素和措施。     

江苏昆山市人口,资源,环境与可持续发展的战略思考

本文从区域可持续发展的角度,着重分析了搞土地批租给经济建设、农业生产和环境保护带来的利弊,指出土地批租具有经济发展上的进取性,资源利用上的合理性,环境治理上的主动性和社会发展的全面性,关键是要因势利导,加强管理,才能达到可持续发展的根本目的。     

Regional Economic Types and Development Strategy of Small Towns in Suburb Beijing

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to classify the regional economic types and development dynamics of small towns in suburb Beijing by applying the classification methods developed by Nelson’s method and Location Quotient method into 183 small towns in Beijing. Four types of small towns are thus identified, including urban agriculture dominated towns, manufacturing dominated towns, service industry dominated towns and comprehensive type towns with balanced economic development. Within the environment of geographical information system, the spatial distribution pattern of four types of small towns with their evolution trend is analyzed. The results indicate that four types of small towns have obvious ‘core-periphery’ spatial structure but with different functional orientations and evolution mechanisms. Based on this, the different development strategies for each type of small towns are summarized, providing a scientific reference for the differentiating planning and development strategies of these small towns.     

我国土地利用的问题与对策

我国人口对土地的压力越来越大,土地管理所面临的问题也越来越严重。我国未来的发展战略必须走一条低度消耗资源和适度消费的道路,而保护土地与环境是土地利用的基本战略。土地利用效率要提高,传统农业生产要转型,要根据不同的地区条件制定相应的政策。本文提出了一些实现上述战略的途径:控制人口和消费;保护和开拓林业;土地制度改革;理顺土地产品价格;强化土地管理等。     

广州市生态风险重点及其防范策略

为了构建更适宜居住生活、更适宜创业发展的山水田园型生态城市,为实现城市可持续发展的总目标,广州市必须系统而有重点地防范生态风险,解决制约广州城市发展的重点和潜在的战略生态问题,保障城市生态安全。本文着重探讨了广州城市发展中的台风、暴雨、洪涝、临海重工业的发展布局与近岸海域生态系统的保护、饮用水保障与水环境质量、机动车尾气污染与大气环境质量等重点生态环境问题及其防范策略。     

社会发展的软件建设

本文认为社会发展的软件建设,首先要研究制定社会发展的战略与规划,并把握战略的全局谋划和規划的总体安排;其次是以人为主体,将提高人的素质作为社会发展的基础,来促进社会发展的良性循环;再者以深化改革促进社会发展过程中人与自然的协调共存,逐步形成社会发展的良性运行机制;最后是探索管理模式,保证社会持续发展。