基于因素重构分析法和主成分分析法的企业安全文化评价模型

针对当前安全文化评价领域存在的评价方法相对简单、主观性较强等问题,基于企业安全文化的人本主体,设计以企业决策层、管理层、执行层为主体的企业安全文化指标体系;充分利用因素重构分析法和主成分分析法在数据处理上的各种优势,建立适应指标体系特征并考虑数据约束条件的企业安全文化评价模型;通过实例分析加以验证。该模型为解决企业安全文化评价中指标体系庞大复杂、样本空间小、缺少可以直接利用的历史数据等难题给出了一条具有可操作性的路径。     

可靠性分配理论在系统安全目标实现中的应用

在系统安全理论中,确定各基本事件的可靠度以实现所给定的系统安全目标值问题一直没有得到很好解决。笔者将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,提出了2个层次可靠度分配法:最小割集之间采取可靠度再分配法,对构成最小割集的各个基本事件之间采取等分配法。从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。为便于应用,通过实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,运用该模型可准确、简便地计算出各单元的可靠度,使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化。     

危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

The Use of Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes to Study Watershed Erosion Processes1

Abstract:  Tracer studies are needed to better understand watershed soil erosion and calibrate watershed erosion models. For the first time, stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes (δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C) and the carbon to nitrogen atomic ratio (C/N) natural tracers are used to investigate temporal and spatial variability of erosion processes within a sub‐watershed. Temporal variability was assessed by comparing δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C, and C/N of eroded‐soils from a non‐equilibrium erosion event immediately following freezing and thawing of surface soils with two erosion events characterized by equilibrium conditions with erosion downcutting. Spatial variability was assessed for the equilibrium events by using the δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C signatures of eroded‐soils to measure the fraction of eroded‐soil derived from rill/interrill erosion on upland hillslopes as compared to headcut erosion on floodplains. In order to perform this study, a number of tasks were carried out including: (1) sampling source‐soils from upland hillslopes and floodplains, (2) sampling eroded‐soils with an in situ trap in the stream of the sub‐watershed, (3) isotopic and elemental analysis of the samples using isotope ratio mass spectrometry, (4) fractioning eroded‐soil to its upland rill/interrill and floodplain headcut end‐members using an unmixing model within a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, and (5) evaluating tracer unmixing model results by comparison with process‐based erosion prediction models for rill/interrill and headcut erosion processes. Results showed that finer soil particles eroded during the non‐equilibrium event were enriched in δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C tracers and depleted in C/N tracer relative to coarser soil particles eroded during the equilibrium events. Correlation of tracer signature with soil particle size was explainable based on known biogeochemical processes. δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C were also able to distinguish between upland rill/interrill erosion and floodplain headcut erosion, which was due to different plant cover at the erosion sources. Results from the tracer unmixing model highlighted future needs for coupling rill/interrill and headcut erosion prediction models.     

实现道路交通安全的营运车辆监控系统框架研究

当前营运车辆监管中,交通管理部门、运输企业和司乘人员3方没有直接的信息通道,导致监管不到位,影响道路交通安全。笔者探讨了营运车辆监控的信息传输通道;以GPS、无线通信技术和互联网为基础,设计了营运车辆监控的技术框架,实现了联系3方的信息传输通道;分析框架实现的关键技术,包括道路限速数据库,车辆超速、疲劳驾驶、超载等违法行为的判定模式等;以广东省营运车辆监控系统为例,验证了框架的可行性。该技术框架使司乘人员的交通违法行为被及时警告和提醒,交通管理部门可以及时制止交通违法行为,可以主动预防交通事故,提高道路交通安全水平。     

"燃烧假人"测试方法中燃烧系统设计研究

“燃烧假人”测试方法中火场环境生成是对服装整体阻燃性能进行定量评估的前提，而燃烧系统设计是实现具有可重复性、一致性、均匀性等特点火场环境的关键。本文对燃烧系统的需求进行了分析，对其构成及设计思路进行了研究，提出了一种解决方案。     

城市海岸带环境管理模式优化研究——以青岛市胶州湾为例

我国的海洋污染日益严重,政府加大海洋环境保护力度势在必行。科学、有效的海洋环境管理对保护环境、提高资源利用效率起着非常重要的作用。但海洋环境并不是一维线性的系统,涉及系统的多维耦合,而海岸带又是与人类活动息息相关的重要部分。本文尝试以青岛市胶州湾海岸带环境管理模式为例,构建包含有"经济-人口-资源-环境-安全-行政(EPRESA)"六个子系统的多维耦合系统模型,并绘制出总流图,然后以此为管理模式的优化提供前提性分析,提出海岸带综合管理模式优化的对策建议。本研究认为,要改善现有的海岸带环境管理体系,应该制定综合性管理政策,建立可持续的融资机制,推进海岸带灾害与风险管理以及引导利益相关者参与管理。     

SOIL MOISTURE ACCOUNTING COMPONENT OF THE USDAHL-74 MODEL OF WATERSHED HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Soil moisture in two layers of a soil near Chickasha, Oklahoma, was simulated, using USDAHL-74 Model of Watershed Hydrology. Weekly values computed for both layers compared well with those observed during the 15-month period. Certain key parameters required adjustments in the model which illustrate the need for accurate input information. The experiment demonstrates that the model, which has previously given good results in continuous streamflow prediction on watersheds up to 100 square miles, can also compute soil moisture continuously at a site. This capability suggests other model uses, for example, in monitoring the disposition of applied chemicals.     

OPTIMAL WATER USE AND SALINITY CONTROL FOR ENERGY - UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Upper Colorado River Basin contains appreciable amounts of undeveloped fuel resources. Large quantities of oil shale, coal, and uranium have attracted recent economic and commercial interests. Development of these resources and subsequent conversion to alternative energy forms require an adequate supply of water. Water use for large scale energy development will place increasing demands on an already overstressed allocation of Colorado River water. Present water quality is at a concentration where increased salinity will result in economic detriments to holders of downstream water rights. The salt and water exchange in mining, processing, and spent fuel disposal processes has been incorporated as part of a two-level minimum cost linear programming algorithm. Mathematical simulation results provide an optimal use of Upper Colorado River water for levels of energy output such that salinity concentrations are maintained below predetermined levels.     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.