SERENDIPITY: CAPTURING A DESIGN LEVEL PRECIPITATION EVENT1

ABSTRACT: On February 23–24, 1998, a frontal system moved across the U.S. Department of Energy's 3,500 km² Nevada Test Site (NTS) and resulted in significant depths of precipitation at all recording gages on the NTS. A preliminary analysis suggested that this precipitation event was of the magnitude and duration for which many flood mitigation structures have been designed. Given the data and field observations available and the potential implications of the event on the methodologies used to size flood mitigation structures throughout the West, a detailed analysis of this event was undertaken. The goals of this study were to compare this event with the regulatory design precipitation event, compare the estimated peak flow rates from the rainfall/runoff model used to size the flood mitigation structures at a radioactive waste management site with the estimated peak flows from the precipitation event, and examine if modification of the standard source of the design depths of precipitation is warranted.     

RAINFALL ADDITAMENTS TO SUBSURFACE WATER IN A YOUNG PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: Effective rainfall is virtually equal to throughfall under most forest canopies. Average throughfall (as measured in trough gauges for a series of rainfall events) increased systematically with distance from tree stems in a young pine plantation. Empirical data suggest that the increase is proportional to the fourth root of distance, but any physical meaning of the relationship is obscure.     

DETERMINISTIC-SYSTEMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN OVERLAND FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of storm runoff is presented, giving primary attention to deterministic-systemic relationships. So that system aspects can be emphasized, other aspects are kept simple; analysis is made for uniform rainfall on a strip of uniform width, limiting direct applicability to small areas. Two relationships between excess rain and time of concentration, one based on hydraulic parameters, the other on hydrologic characteristics, are combined in a solution for peak discharge. The hydraulic expression gives the interrelationship of time of concentration, excess rain, friction, length, and slope. The hydrologic relationship is achieved by converting ordinary intensity-duration curves to corresponding excess rain intensity-duration curves, thereby interrelating excess rain, time of concentration, and loss characteristics. The resulting solution for peak discharge allows for systemic feedback among both hydraulic and hydrologic parameters.     

A QUASI-LINEAR SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED CELL MODEL FOR THE SURFACE RUNOFF SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The paper presents a spatially distributed model consisting of cells that are interconnected in a pattern similar to the major drainage network of the watershed. Each cell receives as input the rainfall excess for the area represented by the cell as well as inflows from cells located upstream. Outflow from the cell is derived by routing the total input through the cell assuming it to be a linear reservoir during the storm. The time constant of the cells is however allowed to vary from storm to storm so that the model may be described as a quasi-linear model. The model was tested with rainfall excess and direct surface runoff data available for a medium size watershed with satisfactory results. The time constant was found to be related to the rainfall excess of the storms studied, its value decreasing with the increase in the total rainfall excess.     

A SIMULATION OF SMOOTH-VARIABLE INTENSITY RAINFALL PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: Continuous rainfall patterns are currently simulated by approximating them by stair-stepped (piece-wise) patterns. The effects of this approximation on infiltration and runoff processes are not well known. A new technique for simulating smooth-variable intensity rainfall patterns is presented. This technique is based on the fundamental principles of a moving water head in a container. The proposed technique is general and capable of simulating any rainfall pattern. However, as the rainfall pattern gets more complicated, the equipment required for simulation becomes more involved. The proposed technique has been tested experimentally. A close agreement was found between the theoretical and experimental simulations. It is concluded that the proposed technique might be very useful in studying the infiltration and runoff processes under variable intensity rainfall, especially for simple convex patterns.     

INTERREGIONAL COMPARISON OF ALLUVIAL STREAM CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY: GREAT PLAINS VERSUS CENTRAL LOWLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channel development is a complicated process involving many factors. A major goal of research in fluvial geomorphology is to develop an understanding of the relations between channel form, water discharge, and sediment discharge characteristics. The concept of thresholds has been introduced as an element in fluvial processes, with the implication that the factors involved in a process might change in some way as threshold boundaries are passed. This study is focused on the extent to which a particular regional boundary represents a threshold in the process of stream channel development. Twenty-four alluvial stream channels from the Great Plains region and 24 from the Central Lowlands region are compared with regard to the distributional form, central tendency and dispersion characteristics, and correlation structure of ten variables, including indicators of discharge, channel sediment, and channel morphology. The results suggest that these aspects of the data are very similar between the regions, except for certain differences in central tendency characteristics, which are assumed to reflect underlying differences between the regions in geology and climate. In general, the results support the idea that this regional boundary is not an effective threshold with respect to the stream channel development process, and that, therefore, stream channels develop in these environmentally distinct regions by way of a similar process.     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING: A NEW PARADIGM IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic Programming (GP) is a domain‐independent evolutionary programming technique that evolves computer programs to solve, or approximately solve, problems. To verify GP's capability, a simple example with known relation in the area of symbolic regression, is considered first. GP is then utilized as a flow forecasting tool. A catchment in Singapore with a drainage area of about 6 km² is considered in this study. Six storms of different intensities and durations are used to train GP and then verify the trained GP. Analysis of the GP induced rainfall and runoff relationship shows that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is consistent with the hydrologic process. The result shows that the runoff prediction accuracy of symbolic regression based models, measured in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficient, is reasonably high. Thus, GP induced rainfall runoff relationships can be a viable alternative to traditional rainfall runoff models.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

MODELING INFILTRATION WITH VARYING HYDRAULIC CONDUCTWITY UNDER SIMULATED RAINFALL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Physically-based models are extensively used to simulate the infiltration process under varied field conditions. Most models are based on the deterministic nature of input parameters related to the flow process (such as hydraulic conductivity). These models yield poor predictions of infiltration rates because they do not include the field-scale variations of flow parameters. The paper presents an approach for integrating the field-scale variability of hydraulic conductivity with an infiltration model to simulate infiltration under the rainfall conditions. A model describing the spatial structure of hydraulic conductivity has been developed using stochastic techniques. The stochastic structure of hydraulic conductivity was then incorporated in the Green-Ampt and Mein-Larson infiltration model. The model outputs on the instantaneous infiltration rates and cumulative infiltration were evaluated using the field infiltration data measured under simulated rainfall conditions. The results show that the combined model is capable of rep. resenting the instantaneous infiltration rates and cumulative infiltration of the study soils. The model may, therefore, be used to simulate the rainfall infiltration process for spatially-variable soils under the field conditions.     

华北平原东部全新世古年地表径流量的估算

利用以现代数据建立的年平均降水量、年平均温度与年平均地表径流深间的关系式和全新世古年降水量、古年温度的推测值估算了华北平原东部的全新世古年地表径流深,并将估算结果与已有的古水文数据作了对比。