灾害生命价值评估理论研究

以生命价值定义为基础,给出了人力资本法的计算方法及其优缺点;认为支付意愿方法为生命价值评估的主流方法。基于单期的选择理论,以状态依赖的期望效用函数为基础,论述不存在遗赠意愿、存在遗赠意愿条件下降低死亡概率的边际支付意愿,揭示了改变死亡概率的边际支付意愿取决于初始的生存状态,即初始财富和初始死亡概率。个人可以通过交易重新安排消费和生存状态,达到效用最大化的目的,其条件是边际支付意愿等于提高生存概率的价格。影响生命的风险有多种,当外生风险、工作风险和消费影响死亡风险商品等风险共存条件下,风险水平高低是决定边际支付意愿的重要因素,风险越大,边际支付意愿越大。     

Arsenic and Mn levels in Isaza (Gymnogobius isaza) during the mass mortality event in Lake Biwa, Japan

The present study measured the concentrations of 25 elements (Li, Mg, V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, In, Sn, Sb, Cs, Ba, Hg, Tl, Pb and Bi) in the whole body of Isaza which is an endemic fish species to Lake Biwa, Japan, and compared the values in the specimens from the mass mortality Isaza (MMI) and normal fresh Isaza (NFI). The mean levels of Mn and total As (T-As) were relatively higher in MMI than in NFI. In the T-As, highly toxic inorganic As was detected in MMI. Moreover we found Mn and As concentrations in surface sediment were extremely high and temporally increased. From all these results, we could infer that the dissolution of Mn and As from surface sediment of Lake Biwa might have been one of the cause for the mass mortality of Isaza.     

Bioremediation of aerobically treated distillery sludge mixed with cow dung by using an epigeic earthworm Eisenia fetida

The potential of the epigeic earthworm Eisenia fetida to stabilize sludge␣(generated from a distillation unit of the sugar industry) mixed with cow dung, in different proportions i.e. 20% (T₁), 40% (T₂), 60% (T₃) and 80% (T₄) has been studied under laboratory conditions for 90 days. The␣ready vermicompost was evaluated for its’ different physico-chemical parameters using standard methods. At the end of experiment, all vermibeds expressed a significant decrease in pH (7.8–19.2%) organic C (8.5–25.8%) content, and an increase in total N (130.4–170.7%), available P (22.2–120.8%), exchangeable K (104.9–159.5%), exchangeable Ca (49.1–118.1%), and exchangeable Mg (13.6–51.2%) content. Overall, earthworms could maximize decomposition and mineralization efficiency in bedding with lower proportions of distillery sludge. DTPA extractable metal reduction in substrate was recorded between the ranges of 12.5–38.8% for Zn, 5.9–30.4% for Fe, 4.7–38.2% for Mn and 4.5–42.1% for Cu. Maximum values for the mean individual live weight (809.69 ± 20.09 mg) and maximum individual growth rate (mg wt. worm⁻¹ day⁻¹) (5.81 ± 0.18) of earthworms was noted in T₁ treatment, whereas cocoon numbers (69.0 ± 7.94) and individual reproduction rate (cocoon worm⁻¹ day⁻¹) (0.046 ± 0.002) was highest in T₂ treatment. Earthworm mortality tended to increase with increasing proportion of distillery sludge, and maximum mortality in E. fetida was recorded for the T₄ (45.0 ± 5.0) treatment. Results indicate that vermicomposting might be useful for managing the energy and nutrient rich distillery sludge on a low-input basis. Products of this process can be used for sustainable land restoration practices. The feasibility of worms to mitigate the toxicity of metals also reduces the possibility of soil contamination, which has been reported in earlier studies during direct field application of industrial wastes.     

Demographic Parameters of the Tartarian Roe Deer Population in the Transural Region and the Main Factors Determining Them

The demographic parameters (sex and age structure, fecundity, and population growth) and the main environmental factors (legal hunting and poaching, predators, weather, and food supply) affecting the structure and dynamics of the large Tartarian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) population of Kurgan oblast were studied. The question of the conformity between the population size and the carrying capacity of its range is considered.     

Earthquake mortality in Pakistan

A strong earthquake, measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale, hit northern Pakistan on 8 October 2005, causing massive destruction, including an official death toll of 73,276. Four cross-sectional surveys were performed in late 2005 to assess mortality before the event, on the day, and subsequently. Two surveys were community-based and two were situated in camps for internally displaced persons. Crude mortality rates were low in the 3.5 months preceding the earthquake (less than 0.1 deaths per 10,000 per day) and slightly higher in the six-to-eight weeks after the earthquake (ranging from 0.10–0.43 per 10,000 per day). On 8 October 2005, approximately two per cent of the population in one community survey died and around five per cent in the other three surveys. Children less than five years and adults more than or equal to 50 years tended to have a higher risk of mortality on the day of the disaster. These results corroborate the high mortality caused by the earthquake.     

地质封存CO_2泄漏对蚯蚓的毒性效应

二氧化碳捕集与封存技术(CO_2 capture and storage, CCS)是当前国际上公认的CO_2减排的有效措施,但封存在地下的CO_2仍然因为各种不稳定因素存在泄漏风险,对土壤环境及土壤生态系统产生威胁。选择赤子爱胜蚓为研究对象,通过模拟高浓度CO_2对蚯蚓形态与生理变化的影响,探究CCS泄漏所产生的土壤高浓度CO_2对蚯蚓的毒性效应。研究表明,土壤高浓度CO_2使蚯蚓出现生殖环带肿大、尾部串珠以及断尾等外部形态变化,皮肤和刚毛受到损伤并且表皮发生褶皱等现象;随着CO_2浓度的增加以及暴露时间的延长,蚯蚓的死亡率不断增加,土壤高浓度CO_2对蚯蚓的7 d和14 d半致死浓度分别为26.39%和17.78%;蚯蚓体腔细胞溶酶体中性红保留时间(NRRT)减少。因此,蚯蚓有望作为监测CO_2泄漏的指示生物,NRRT可作为识别CO_2泄漏的敏感指标。     

Economic Valuation of Health Impact of PM10 Pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006

In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing,this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM10 pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006,taking health as the main impact,and mortality as the main outcome.Based on the literature review,this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts.It concludes that nearly 30% of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM10 pollution,and that the economic cost equals 0.8%-1.2% of the city's GDP over the same period.This is lower than the results of previous studies,but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city's air pollution problem.     

我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究

在分析地震的特点及我国目前抗震设防中存在问题的基础上,提出了社会可接受地震人员死亡率的概念,介绍了确定可接受地震人员死亡率的方法及需要考虑的因素。同时通过对其它自然灾害和人为灾害死亡率的统计,以问卷调查的形式咨询了熟悉防震减灾工作的有关专家和政府管理部门等业内人士的意见,在此基础上,给出了较合理的社会可接受地震人员死亡率的建议值,为在抗震设防标准研究中定量考虑和控制地震人员伤亡提供了依据。     

Mortality rate and population density regulation in the great tit, Parus major L.: A review

A comparative analysis of published estimates of survival rates in different populations of great tits is made separately for adult and juvenile birds. The relationship between environmental conditions and demographic parameters in the reproduction of populations is discussed. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2006, No. 3, pp. 199–207. The article was translated by the author.