The application of generalized linear mixed models to multi-level sampling for insect population monitoring

Iwao's quadratic regression or Taylor's Power Law (TPL) are commonly used to model the variance as a function of the mean for sample counts of insect populations which exhibit spatial aggregation. The modeled variance and distribution of the mean are typically used in pest management programs to decide if the population is above the action threshold in any management unit (MU) (e.g., orchard, forest compartment). For nested or multi-level sampling the usual two-stage modeling procedure first obtains the sample variance for each MU and sampling level using ANOVA and then fits a regression of variance on the mean for each level using either Iwao or TPL variance models. Here this approach is compared to the single-stage procedure of fitting a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) directly to the count data with both approaches demonstrated using 2-level sampling. GLMMs and additive GLMMs (AGLMMs) with conditional Poisson variance function as well as the extension to the negative binomial are described. Generalization to more than two sampling levels is outlined. Formulae for calculating optimal relative sample sizes (ORSS) and the operating characteristic curve for the control decision are given for each model. The ORSS are independent of the mean in the case of the AGLMMs. The application described is estimation of the variance of the mean number of leaves per shoot occupied by immature stages of a defoliator of eucalypts, the Tasmanian Eucalyptus leaf beetle, based on a sample of trees within plots from each forest compartment. Historical population monitoring data were fitted using the above approaches.     

双重外部性约束下中国资源型企业绩效研究

中国资源型产业的可持续发展受到代际外部性与环境外部性的双重制约,却长期存在过度进入导致的过度开采,加剧了资源型企业的产能过剩与配置扭曲,但与此相关的"结构-行为-绩效"关系研究尚未将外部性纳入考量。本文引入双重外部性,构建了"SCP-2E"模型,并基于80家资源开采上市公司2011-2014年的面板数据,首先运用使用者成本法和条件估值法分别估算了代际外部性和环境外部性,然后将它们作为企业行为的因变量和影响绩效的自变量分别纳入资源型企业的SCP-2E模型中,同时考虑双重外部性下市场结构、所有权性质等因素对绩效的影响。结果发现,中国资源型产业有着明显的周期性特征,而2011年以来资源型企业的兼并重组只是单纯扩大了企业规模,而没有切实提高企业效率;进一步结合企业规模和所有权性质的相关性来看,大型企业多以国有企业为主,由此说明企业规模扩大、绩效却显著降低的原因在很大程度是由于国有企业的低效率造成的;另外,目前企业绩效的提高,主要还是依赖于地区经济增长的拉动,但在用电量增速较快的地区,也伴随着较大的环境外部性损失,暂时没有受到资源枯竭的约束。基于以上结论,本文认为,监管部门应加强资源开采权的审查,提高资源型企业的进入门槛和技术标准,适当鼓励企业在不增加生产投资和规模的前提下,通过技术进步和劳动效率的提高提升绩效,而国有企业改革力度重点应放在解决大型国企的低效率问题上。政府应该权衡经济增长与代际和环境负外部性,在保证能源、资源安全的前提下,鼓励和扩大可耗竭资源的进口,逐步建立国家和企业的战略资源储备制度。     

负压蒸发技术处理废弃钻井液

采用负压蒸发技术处理3种不同组分的废弃钻井液。实验结果表明:最佳蒸发温度为79℃;当蒸发温度低于95℃时,相15~#原液的出水氨氮质量浓度、悬浮物质量浓度、色度分别低于3.40 mg/L、0.093 mg/L、11倍,达到GB 8978—1996《污水综合排放标准》中的一级排放标准;当蒸发温度低于79℃时,钻井液1和钻井液2的出水氨氮质量浓度均低于37.00 mg/L,悬浮物质量浓度均低于0.080 mg/L,色度低于13倍,COD低于114.0 mg/L,达到GB 8978—1996《污水综合排放标准》中的二级排放标准。通过后续过滤除油工艺可降低钻井液中的石油类质量浓度,使最终出水达标排放。     

煤气负压管道裂纹的修补

介绍了河南天宏焦化公司采用可赛新金属修补系列产品,对煤气负压管道裂纹进行修补,取得了良好效果,避免了煤气负压管道普通焊补作业的危险性和停机检修对生产造成的诸多不利因素,实现了煤气负压管道补漏作业的安全高效.同时,对可赛新金属修补系列产品的技术性能作了介绍.     

负压二次曝气二氧化氯发生器的研制与应用

以氯酸钠和工业盐酸为基本原料,采用独特的负压二次曝气工艺,在催化剂作用下,经氧化还原反应产生以二氧化氯为主的混合消毒气体,经吸收后形成一定浓度的二氧化氯混合消毒液,与待处理水充分混合,达到杀菌消毒的目的。     

挣扎与妥协:农村家庭缘何陷入能源贫困“陷阱”

生活能源改进是实现农村低收入家庭福利提升的关键环节之一,而资产的贫困为能源的消费造成了约束,使低收入农户难以实现能源的改进以脱离贫困现状。该文借助"贫困陷阱"的定义,将这种受制于资产贫困的能源使用困境称为能源贫困"陷阱",并从农户心理视角考察了低收入家庭更容易陷入能源贫困的原因。基于2015年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,对能源贫困线进行了重新计算,认为我国现阶段农村能源贫困线应为户均600 kgce/a,并发现不论在任何能源贫困线下,收入偏低农户的能源贫困发生率、能源贫困深度和强度均远高于中高收入农户。基于此,该文同时从消费量和消费倾向两个方面估计了家庭经济状况对能源贫困的影响,结果表明:相对于中高收入农户,收入偏低农户的能源消费呈现出"既未省钱又未增效"的非经济理性特征,其能源消费负担实际更重,而消费结构却更为低效。进一步地,运用中介效应模型对这一非经济理性决策进行了解释,考察了心理因素在能源贫困"陷阱"形成中的作用,结果发现:收入偏低农户更容易表现出消极心理状态,负面的情绪和对未来的悲观预期使其在能源决策中更倾向于选择传统能源,而不愿做出能源改进的尝试。这种消极心理在一定程度上反映了收入偏低农户在能源改进中主观能动性的缺乏。正如"扶贫先扶志",政府在推行因地制宜的能源政策、开展能源基础设施建设的同时,也应该加强对贫困农户的情感帮扶,以使其产生尝试改进能源的内生动力。     

基于“反规划”视角的乡村旅游规划新途径探析

引入"反规划"思想,针对传统规划方法给乡村旅游带来的不利影响,强调"反规划"在乡村旅游规划中应用的必要性与可行性。通过与传统规划方法进行对比分析发现,当前乡村旅游规划中存在不少亟待解决的问题。同时,探析了"反规划"思想在乡村旅游规划中的运用,建立乡村旅游"反规划"发展模式为保障乡村旅游可持续性发展提供了理论依据。     

稠油污水回用锅炉处理工艺的应用

新疆油田公司稠油污水处理普遍采用成熟的离子调整旋流反应水处理技术,污水处理后达到回用锅炉水质标准SY/T 0097-2000《稠油油田采出水用于蒸汽发生器给水处理设计规范》,供给油田专用高压注汽锅炉用水。采用相同技术建成的采油一厂稠油处理站污水回用锅炉处理工艺投用后,处理后污水回用锅炉,减少了含油污水的外排,充分利用了稠油污水的热能,取得了良好的经济和社会效益。     

Factors influencing on the bioaccessibility of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in size-specific dust from air conditioner filters

Size-specific concentrations and bioaccessibility of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in dust from air conditioner filters were measured, and the factors influencing the PBDE bioaccessibility were determined. Generally, the PBDE concentrations increased with decreasing dust particle size, and BDE209 (deca-BDE) was generally the predominant congener. The bioaccessibility ranged from 20.3% to 50.8% for tri- to hepta-BDEs, and from 5.1% to 13.9% for BDE209 in dust fractions of varied particle size. The bioaccessibility of most PBDE congeners decreased with increasing dust particle size. The way of being of PBDE (adsorbed to dust surface or incorporated into polymers) in dust significantly influenced the bioaccessibility. There was a significant negative correlation between the tri- to hepta-BDE bioaccessibility and organic matter (OM) contents in dust. Furthermore, tri- to hepta-BDE bioaccessibility increased with increasing polarity of OMs, while with decreasing aromaticity of OMs. The tri- to hepta-BDE bioaccessibility significantly positively correlated with the surface areas and pore volumes of dust. Using multiple linear regression analysis, it was found that the OM contents and pore volumes of dust were the most important factors to influence the tri- to hepta-BDE bioaccessibility and they could be used to estimate the bioaccessibility of tri- to hepta-BDEs according to the following equation: bioaccessibility (%) = 45.05 − 0.49 × OM% + 1.79 × pore volume. However, BDE209 bioaccessibility did not correlate to any of these factors.