婴儿脐带血和母亲血中多溴联苯醚的研究

为研究环境污染物多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)在人体的含量,采集了21对婴儿脐带和母亲静脉血样,用气相色谱和质谱法进行测定.结果表明,在所检测的7个PBDEs同系物(BDE-28,-47,-99,-100,-153,-154和-183)中,BDE-47和BDE-153为最主要的同系物.总PBDEs的含量分布于1.5~17ng/g;略高于挪威报道的含量水平,但低于瑞典和德国,远低于美国所报道的水平.      

Sorption of 1-naphthol by plant cuticular fractions

The contribution of aliphatic-rich plant biopolymer to sorption of hydrophobic organic compounds is significantly important because of their preservation and accumulation in the soil environment,but sorption mechanism is still not fully understood.In this study, sorption of 1-naphthol by plant cuticular fractions was examined to better understand the contributions of respective fraction.Toward this end,cuticular materials were isolated from the fruits of tomato by chemical method.The tomato cuticle sheet consisted of waxes (6.5 wt%),cuticular monomer (69.5 wt%),and polysaccharide (24.0 wt%).Isotherms of l-naphthol to the cuticular fractions were nonlinear (N value (0.82-0.90)) at the whole tested concentration ranges.The KodKow ratios for bulk cuticle (TC1),dewaxed cuticle (TC2),cutin (TC4),and desugared cuticle (TC5) were larger than unity,suggested that tomato bulk cuticle and cutin are much powerful solption medium.Sorption capability of cutin (TC4) was 2.4 times higher than the nonsaponifiable fraction (TC3).The 1-naphthol interactions with tomato cuticular materials were governed by both hydrophobic-type interactions and polar (H-bonding) interactions. Removal of the wax and polysaccharide materials from the bulk tomato cuticle caused a significant increase in the sorption ability of the cuticular material.There was a linear negative trend between K_(oc) values and the amount of polysaccharides or fraction's polarities ((N O)/C);while a linear positive relationship between K_(oc) values and the content of cutin monomer (linear R~2=0.993) was observed for present in the cuticular fractions.Predominant sorbent of the hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) in the plant cuticular fraction was the cutin monomer,contributing to 91.7% of the total sorption of tomato bulk cuticle.     

北京山谷风环流特征分析及其对PM2.5浓度的影响

利用北京地区2013~2015年秋冬季各自动站气象要素数据、大气所铁塔资料以及海淀气象站风廓线数据和该地区PM2.5浓度数据,挑选典型个例分析山谷风环流特征及其对PM2.5浓度的影响.经过分析发现,谷风(山风)平均风速为0.55m·s~(-1)(0.31 m·s~(-1)).秋季(冬季)谷风平均持续时间为9h(6h),秋季(冬季)谷风开始时刻为11:00(13:00);秋季(冬季)山风持续时间为13 h(16 h),秋季(冬季)山风开始时刻为21:00(20:00);受北京地区地形等的影响,山谷风转化的风向分界线为东北-西南向,秋季山风前沿压到南二环,冬季山风前沿压到南三环;山、谷风在形成及发展变化的过程中,其厚度有着明显的变化,谷风(山风)秋冬季的平均厚度为700~1 000 m(300~600 m);无论是秋季还是冬季,一天中平均PM2.5浓度开始上升的时刻南部早于北部,秋季PM2.5浓度开始上升的时刻要早于冬季,而开始下降的时刻秋季会晚于冬季.北京地区秋(冬)季空气污染南北差异较大的过渡区处于南二环(南三环),并会随着时间的推移向南移动.秋(冬)季该现象的持续时间为4 h(2h).并且,在研究中发现,PM2.5与山谷风之间可能存在着一定的正负反馈作用.     

西双版纳南坡铜矿区植物地球化学异常特征及形成机理

对西双版纳南坡铜矿区植物与土壤地球化学剖面研究发现:发育在Ⅰ线研究剖面山脊隐伏矿床上方和山坡脚近溪流处的Ⅰ号和Ⅱ号植物综合异常,其赋存空间、物质来源及发育状态受不同成因类型的土壤异常的控制。Ⅰ号异常反映了土壤气体异常、碎屑异常和上移水成异常;Ⅱ号异常反映了土壤侧移水成异常和部分水化学异常。由于元素在植物根际环境的地球化学赋存状态及其生物有效性,植物对元素吸收的选择性和屏障效应等因素,植物中某些异常元素同土壤异常中的相应元素具有不协调性。植物地球化学异常库和所有的地球化学异常库都发生关系,它们在一定的时空、环境和动力条件下发生一系列复杂的界面反应,使元素向植物迁移转化,导致植物地球化学异常的形成。     

我国小麦白粉病发生流行的长期气象预测研究

确定了影响我国小麦白粉病发病流行的9项关键环流特征因子指标,其中4项较好地表征了我国小麦白粉病发病面积轻、偏轻、偏重、重4个级别的气候特征.以关键环流特征因子距平为预测因子,建立的上年10月初、当年4月初制作预报的2个全国小麦白粉病发病面积距平预测模式历史拟合效果较好,对2004年的外延预报准确率分别达87.5%和98.2%.通过分析关键大气环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病发生流行的可能影响机制,发现前期关键环流特征因子对我国小麦白粉病的发生流行具有很好的气候背景指示效应.     

基于综合观测的中国中东部地区一次严重污染过程分析

利用寿县国家气候观象台GRIMM80颗粒物监测仪、Aurora3000浊度计等探测的气溶胶浓度、大气散射系数分析了2018年1月中国中东部地区发生的一次严重污染过程.利用Airda微波辐射计探测的近地层温湿廓线数据,结合地面常规气象观测资料及EC再分析资料,探讨了此次污染过程形成、短时消散及清除的气象原因.结果表明：与历史同期相比,500 hPa极涡较浅、经向环流减弱;850 hPa西南气流强盛,中低层水汽充足加剧污染.污染发生于冷空气间歇期.在此污染过程中,地面平均风速为1.5 m·s^-1,日均日照时数为0.1 h,相对湿度为91.2%,高湿、小风、多云寡照不利于污染水平扩散.1月18-22日边界层持续存在多层逆温,第一逆温层基本多为贴地逆温,逆温高度低于200 m,近地层大气比湿超过5 g·kg^-1,最大值高于7 g·kg^-1.在此期间出现两次空气质量短时段好转,这主要源于对流层中低层转为西北风,900 hPa以下聚集相当位温（Q_e）低于288 K的浅薄冷空气堆,导致贴地逆温层消失地面污染被稀释.但两次弱冷空气没有打破边界层内有利于污染聚集的逆温、高湿结构,地面气团温度露点差无明显变化.23日较强冷空气使高空干洁大气入侵近地层,850 hPa以下Q_e<284 K,表明地面污染气团被置换,污染过程结束.     

Three ways to deliver a net positive impact with biodiversity offsets

Biodiversity offsetting is the practice of using conservation actions, such as habitat restoration, management, or protection, to compensate for ecological losses caused by development activity, including construction projects. The typical goal of offsetting is no net loss (NNL), which means that all ecological losses are compensated for by commensurate offset gains. We focused on a conceptual and methodological exploration of net positive impact (NPI), an ambitious goal that implies commitment beyond NNL and that has recently received increasing attention from big business and environmental nongovernmental organizations. We identified 3 main ways NPI could be delivered: use of an additional NPI multiplier; use of slowly developing permanent offsets to deliver additional gains after NNL has first been reached during a shorter offset evaluation time interval; and the combination of permanent offsets with partially temporary losses. An important and novel variant of the last mechanism is the use of an alternate mitigation hierarchy so that gains from the traditional third step of the mitigation hierarchy (i.e., onsite rehabilitation) are no longer be counted toward reduced offset requirements. The outcome from these 3 factors is that for the same ecological damage, larger offsets will be required than previously, thereby improving offset success. As a corollary, we show that offsets are NNL only at 1 ephemeral point in time, before which they are net negative and after which they become either NPI or net negative impact, depending on whether permanent offsets are combined with partially temporary losses or if temporary offset gains are combined with partially permanent losses. To achieve NPI, offsets must be made permanent, and they must achieve NNL during an agreed-upon offset evaluation period. An additional NPI-multiplier and use of the modified mitigation hierarchy will deliver additional NPI gains. Achieving NPI is fully conditional on prior achievement of NNL, and NNL offsets have been frequently observed to fail due to inadequate policy requirements, poor planning, or incomplete implementation. Nevertheless, achieving NPI becomes straightforward if NNL can be credibly reached first.     

Highway-rail grade crossings accident prediction using Zero Inflated Negative Binomial and Empirical Bayes method

Introduction: Recently the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) released a new model for accident prediction at railroad grade crossings using a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model with Empirical Bayes (EB) adjustments for accident history (2). This new model is adopted from the work that was conducted by the authors (3–6). The unique feature of the new FRA model is that it has a single equation for all three warning devices (crossbuck, flashing light, and gates) and uses the same variables regardless of the warning devices at the crossing. Since the New FRA model incorporates the warning device category as one of the variables in its model equation, the predicted accident frequency is higher when a crossing has crossbucks than flashing lights, and higher when it has flashing lights than gates. While this model is significantly better than the old USDOT model (7), its shortcoming is that the single equation does not accurately represent the field condition. Method: This paper presents the ZINEBS model (Zero Inflated Negative binomial with Empirical Bayes adjustment System). The ZINEBS model gives three different equations depending on the type of warning device used at the crossings (gates, flashing lights, and crossbucks). The three equations use variables, some of which are common across all warning devices, while other variables are specific to a warning device. The predicted values for the ZINEBS model show a closer agreement with the field data than the new FRA model. This observation was true for all three warning device types analyzed. Practical Applications: Based on the results of this study, the ZINEBS compliments the new FRA model and should be used when the single equation is not adequately representing the role of traffic control device types and relevant variables associated with that device type.     

Safety effects of street lighting on roadway segments: Development of a crash modification function

Objective: Nighttime crashes are overrepresented on the U.S. highway system. Roadway lighting, which provides additional visibility by supplementing vehicle headlights, has been identified as an effective countermeasure to improve nighttime safety. However, the existing literature does not provide a thorough understanding of the effects of street lighting photometric characteristics on nighttime crash occurrence on roadway segments. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between lighting photometric measures and nighttime crash risk on roadway segments and develop a crash modification function/factor (CMF).

Methods: The research team collected horizontal illuminance data on 440 roadway segments between 2 successive signalized intersections in Florida for 2012–2014 and matched 4 years of nighttime and daylight crash data (2011–2014). Random parameter negative binomial models were estimated for both nighttime and daylight crash frequencies. The expected night-to-day crash odds ratio, as an equivalent of CMF, was derived from the fitted models with the correction of estimation variances. The confidence intervals (CIs) of the developed CMF were estimated using the Cox method.

Results: The coefficient of the mean of horizontal illuminance is significantly negative in the nighttime model. The coefficients of the standard deviation of horizontal illuminance are significantly positive and normally distributed in both the nighttime and daylight models. The significance of the standard deviation in the daylight model captures the confounding effects—a high standard deviation correlates with high traffic exposures, poor safety design standards, and low maintenance quality. The CMF based on the expected daylight-to-day odds ratio was developed as an exponential function of the increments and the increment squares of the mean and the standard deviation of horizontal illuminance. Its 95% CIs indicate that the CMF is almost significant over the whole range. Other significant variables contributing to nighttime crash risk include annual average daily traffic, truck percentage, segment length, access density, undivided roads, and urban/city limits.

Conclusions: Horizontal illuminance characteristics have a significant impact on nighttime crash risk on roadway segments. An increase in the mean of horizontal illuminance, indicating an improvement in average lighting level, tends to decrease nighttime crash risk; an increase in the standard deviation, representing a poor uniformity of lighting pattern on a roadway segment, is more likely to raise nighttime crash risk. Because the 2 measures are strongly correlated in a low mean range (<0.44 fc), the 2 photometric measures need to be considered together to interpret the safety effects of lighting patterns. The standard deviation shows better performance in measuring lighting uniformity on a roadway segment than the traditional ratios (max-to-min and mean-to-min). However, a new photometric measure is needed to capture the true lighting pattern influencing driver vision at night.     

Determining Decision Thresholds and Evaluating Indicators when Conservation Status is Measured as a Continuum

Categorization of the status of populations, species, and ecosystems underpins most conservation activities. Status is often based on how a system's current indicator value (e.g., change in abundance) relates to some threshold of conservation concern. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to quantify the statistical reliability of indicators of conservation status and evaluate trade‐offs between correct (true positive) and incorrect (false positive) classifications across a range of decision thresholds. However, ROC curves assume a discrete, binary relationship between an indicator and the conservation status it is meant to track, which is a simplification of the more realistic continuum of conservation status, and may limit the applicability of ROC curves in conservation science. We describe a modified ROC curve that treats conservation status as a continuum rather than a discrete state. We explored the influence of this continuum and typical sources of variation in abundance that can lead to classification errors (i.e., random variation and measurement error) on the true and false positive rates corresponding to varying decision thresholds and the reliability of change in abundance as an indicator of conservation status, respectively. We applied our modified ROC approach to an indicator of endangerment in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (i.e., percent decline in geometric mean abundance) and an indicator of marine ecosystem structure and function (i.e., detritivore biomass). Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum when choosing thresholds for indicators resulted in the misidentification of trade‐offs between true and false positive rates and the overestimation of an indicator's reliability. We argue for treating conservation status as a continuum when ROC curves are used to evaluate decision thresholds in indicators for the assessment of conservation status. Determinación de Umbrales de Decisiones y Evaluación delos Indicadores cuando se Mide el Estado de de Conservación como un Continuo