HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

输电塔结构的动力稳定性研究

作为一种重要的生命线工程,输电线路的破坏会造成巨大的经济损失。统计显示,风荷载作用下输电塔结构的动态侧倾失稳是输电线路经常发生的破坏形式之一。因此,对风作用下输电塔结构的失稳破坏进行研究有着十分重要的意义。本文应用谐波叠加法模拟脉动风场,分别采用Budiansky-Roth准则和动态增量法(IDA)结合位移相等准则这两种方法,基于ANSYS的非线性屈曲分析和时程分析模块,对沈阳某输电塔的抗风动力稳定性进行了研究。结果表明,风的动力特性对结构稳定性影响较大,现行规范中按等效静力风荷载进行计算是偏于不安全的。     

矿工心理因素、工作压力反应和不安全行为关系研究

为研究在巨大工作压力下,矿工的心理因素与工作压力反应和不安全行为的关系,以问卷的形式调查陕西省2家具代表性煤矿的工人,分别以矿工的心理因素、工作压力反应和作业过程中的不安全行为作为外生变量、中介变量和内生变量,构建心理因素、压力反应和不安全行为的结构方程模型。通过对调研数据处理与分析,得出如下结论:本研究中的4项心理因素,性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度显著影响不安全行为的发生;性格因素、心理素质和注意力对压力反应有显著影响;工作态度与煤矿工人的压力反应的关系不显著;性格因素、心理素质、注意力和工作态度通过影响矿工的压力反应,间接影响矿工的不安全行为。     

Structural equation model analysis for the evaluation of overall driving performance: A driving simulator study focusing on driver distraction

Objective: The present research relies on 2 main objectives. The first is to investigate whether latent model analysis through a structural equation model can be implemented on driving simulator data in order to define an unobserved driving performance variable. Subsequently, the second objective is to investigate and quantify the effect of several risk factors including distraction sources, driver characteristics, and road and traffic environment on the overall driving performance and not in independent driving performance measures.

Methods: For the scope of the present research, 95 participants from all age groups were asked to drive under different types of distraction (conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in urban and rural road environments with low and high traffic volume in a driving simulator experiment. Then, in the framework of the statistical analysis, a correlation table is presented investigating any of a broad class of statistical relationships between driving simulator measures and a structural equation model is developed in which overall driving performance is estimated as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator measures.

Results: Results confirm the suitability of the structural equation model and indicate that the selection of the specific performance measures that define overall performance should be guided by a rule of representativeness between the selected variables. Moreover, results indicate that conversation with the passenger was not found to have a statistically significant effect, indicating that drivers do not change their performance while conversing with a passenger compared to undistracted driving. On the other hand, results support the hypothesis that cell phone use has a negative effect on driving performance. Furthermore, regarding driver characteristics, age, gender, and experience all have a significant effect on driving performance, indicating that driver-related characteristics play the most crucial role in overall driving performance.

Conclusions: The findings of this study allow a new approach to the investigation of driving behavior in driving simulator experiments and in general. By the successful implementation of the structural equation model, driving behavior can be assessed in terms of overall performance and not through individual performance measures, which allows an important scientific step forward from piecemeal analyses to a sound combined analysis of the interrelationship between several risk factors and overall driving performance.     

基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型,在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子,将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设,提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象,进行数据拟合和预测分析,其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据,并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数,检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面,改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级,曲线拟合度较高,预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

近52a西南地区潜在蒸散发时空变化特征

潜在蒸散发对水资源评价和气候变化均具有重要意义。采用Penman-Monteith公式和气象观测资料计算了中国西南地区90个气象站的潜在蒸散发,并采用多种统计方法分析了潜在蒸散发的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)西南地区近52a的平均潜在蒸散发为3 209.8 mm,其中云南省潜在蒸散发最高(3 664.7 mm),其次为四川省(3 015.0 mm)、重庆市(2 972.4 mm)、贵州省(2 958.0 mm)。四季潜在蒸散发空间分布特征与年不同,从大到小排序为夏季,春季,秋季,冬季。(2)西南地区整体呈增加趋势(0.9 mm/10 a),其中31个站点呈减少趋势(p0.1),17个站点呈增加趋势(p0.1),其余站点变化趋势不显著。大部分站点春季(55.6%)和夏季(63.3%)呈减少趋势,秋季(62.2%)和冬季(58.9%)则呈增加趋势。(3)经MannKendall突变检验,该区整体潜在蒸散发的突变时间为1995年(p0.05);单个站点突变检验显示,76个站点发生突变,突变年份集中于1980s,未发生突变的站点主要分布于青藏高原东缘。整体上看,近52a来西南地区潜在蒸散发略呈增加趋势,并存在突变点,但部分站点存在相反的变化趋势,这和复杂的地形环境和气候特征有较大关系,体现出西南地区水文气象变化的独特性。     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Sorption of 3,4-dichloroaniline on four contrasting Greek agricultural soils and the effect of liming

Sorption of 3,4-dichloroaniline (3,4-DCA) on four typical Greek agricultural soils, with distinct texture, organic matter content and cation exchange capacities, was compared by using sorption isotherms and the parameters calculated from the fitted Freundlich equations. The sorption process of 3,4-DCA to the soil was completed within 48–72 h. The 3,4-DCA sorption on all soils was well described by the Freundlich equation and all sorption isotherms were of the L-type. The sandy clay loam soil with the highest organic matter content and a slightly acidic pH was the most sorptive, whereas the two other soil types, a high organic matter and neutral pH clay and a low organic matter and acidic loam, had an intermediate sorption capacity. A typical calcareous soil with low organic matter had the lowest sorption capacity which was only slightly higher than that of river sand. The 3,4-DCA sorption correlated best to soil organic matter content and not to clay content or cation exchange capacity, indicating the primary role of organic matter. The distribution coefficient (K _d) decreased with increasing initial 3,4-DCA concentration and the reduction was most pronounced with the highly sorptive sandy clay loam soil, suggesting that the available sorption sites of the soils are not unlimited. Liming of the two acidic soils (the sandy clay loam and the loam) raised their pH (from 6.2 and 5.3, respectively) to 7.8 and reduced their sorption capacity by about 50 %, indicating that soil pH may be the second in importance factor (after organic matter) determining 3,4-DCA sorption.     

外源硅对不同pH水田土壤吸附铅的影响

通过等温吸附实验,研究了加硅对2种不同pH水田土壤吸附铅特性的影响。实验中用硝酸中和硅酸钠的碱性,各处理间钠离子和硝酸根离子的差异以硝酸钠补齐,消除了因硅酸盐的加入改变体系pH及伴随离子对土壤吸附铅可能产生的影响。结果表明,在本实验条件下,Langmuir方程、Freundlich方程和Temkin方程都能较好地描述不同硅浓度条件下两种土壤对铅的吸附特征,但以Freundlich模型为最优;加硅促进了酸性土壤对铅的吸附,抑制了碱性土壤对铅的吸附。     

Combining sap flow and eddy covariance approaches to derive stomatal and non-stomatal O3 fluxes in a forest stand

Stomatal O₃ fluxes to a mixed beech/spruce stand (Fagus sylvatica/Picea abies) in Central Europe were determined using two different approaches. The sap flow technique yielded the tree-level transpiration, whereas the eddy covariance method provided the stand-level evapotranspiration. Both data were then converted into stomatal ozone fluxes, exemplifying this novel concept for July 2007. Sap flow-based stomatal O₃ flux was 33% of the total O₃ flux, whereas derivation from evapotranspiration rates in combination with the Penman-Monteith algorithm amounted to 47%. In addition to this proportional difference, the sap flow-based assessment yielded lower levels of stomatal O₃ flux and reflected stomatal regulation rather than O₃ exposure, paralleling the daily courses of canopy conductance for water vapor and eddy covariance-based total stand-level O₃ flux. The demonstrated combination of sap flow and eddy covariance approaches supports the development of O₃ risk assessment in forests from O₃ exposure towards flux-based concepts.