祁连山北麓生态移民的生计风险与应对策略选择——以武威市为例

生计风险作为移民社会整合的标尺,已成为研究生态移民生计及可持续发展的重要视角。以祁连山北麓的武威市为例,利用Binary Logistic模型分析了移民生计风险对其应对策略的影响机制,以期为制定有效的生计风险防范体系提供科学支撑。结果表明：（1）武威市生态移民的生计类型以非农户为主,纯农户比例不足10%,生计多样化指数仅为1.74且存在显著的区域差异。（2）67.44%的移民面临着多重风险,以经济风险为主,生活开支大、新分棚圈耕地质量差、返贫是主要的风险要素。（3）应对策略主要为向亲朋借钱、银行贷款、外出打工和减少开支,后顾生计则多选择扩大养殖、长期打工和维持现状,不同县区移民的策略选择略有不同。（4）政策、福利和经济风险会显著影响移民对“向银行贷款”“减少开支”及“外出打工”等应对策略的选择,而后顾生计的选择更多受制于生计资本储量,而政策及经济风险的影响较低。移民户的类型对策略选择影响显著,非农型兼业户更倾向于选择“向银行贷款”和“扩大养殖”。     

Woodlot management and livelihoods in a tropical conservation landscape

In biodiversity hotspots, there is often tension between human needs and conservation, exacerbated when protected areas prevent access to natural resources. Forest-dependent people may compensate for exclusion by managing unprotected forests or cultivating planted woodlots. Outside Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, household wood product needs are high and population growth puts pressure on the environment. We investigated the role of privately and collectively managed woodlots in provisioning wood products and supporting local livelihoods. We found that households relied heavily on woodlots for daily needs and as resources during time of need. We also found that locally relevant social institutions, called stretcher groups, played a role in the management of woodlots, providing shared community resources. Privately and collectively owned woodlots support local livelihoods and wood product needs in the region. Long-term management of forests in Uganda should consider the value of woodlots and the mechanisms required to support them.     

Social capital and food security in post-conflict rural Lira District,northern Uganda

While a strong relationship has been established between social capital and food security in the research literature, it is uncertain whether this holds in post-conflict situations. This study examines associations between social capital and food security in post-conflict Lira District, northern Uganda. Since factors affecting food security are complex, we explored the roles of households' characteristics in food security outcomes. Data were collected from March to July 2011 through face-to-face interviews with 221 heads of household in rural Lira. Using multinomial logistic regression, a strong positive association was identified between social capital and household food security. The study also found significant associations of food security with sex, education of household head, amount of cultivated land, and farm and home possessions. The results of this analysis can aid the design of food security programmes that empower poor people while targeting the most vulnerable groups, thereby promoting sustainable development in post-conflict communities.     

A case for urban liveability from below: exploring the politics of water and land access for greater liveability in Kampala,Uganda

ABSTRACT

Improving urban liveability and prosperity is commonly set as a priority in urban development plans and policy around the world. Several annual reports produced by international consulting firms, media, and global agencies rank the liveability of cities based on a set of indicators, to represent the quality of life in these cities. The higher is the ranking, the more liveable is the city. In this paper, we argue that such quantitative approaches to framing and addressing urban liveability challenges leave little room to reflect on people's experiences of this liveability, which cannot be expressed through numbers. To illustrate our argument, we draw on empirical evidence of urban liveability challenges in access to water and land in Kampala, the capital city of Uganda, ranked recently as the most liveable East African city by various global agencies and media outlets. By showing that increasing the number of water connections does not guarantee improved access to water and sanitation in the long run, first, we demonstrate how urban liveability challenges are tightly linked with land-title issues in the city. Second, we highlight the political game-playing between the central government, the opposition, the traditional leadership, and the slum dwellers in governance processes of service delivery. Finally, by arguing that urban liveability can be enhanced by broadening political participation in city development planning, we discuss some of the strategies that can be used by communities to make collective claims towards improving their quality of life and the environment.     

山东济南北部地热田富水规律分析

为查明济南北部地热田的富水规律,并为该地区的地热资源开发提供科学指导,通过对该地区的钻探、物探以及水化学等资料的分析,查明了该区地热田的大致范围为:南起济南岩体,北到齐河—广饶断裂,西起焦斌—庙廊断裂,东至鸡山断裂,总面积约770 km2。济南北部地热田的热源主要来源于北部齐河—广饶断裂沟通深部热源,济南岩浆岩的侵入作用对地热资源的形成也起到积极作用。地热水主要赋存于北东向与近东西向断裂构造的破碎带及附近,深部灰岩热储的岩溶发育较差。     

Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability

Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61)  than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.     

轨道尺度下东亚夏季风降水的北方主导演变模态

众多古气候记录的分析表明：轨道尺度气候变化下我国北方地区的季风降水变化显著，该现象的理解对于深入认识东亚夏季风降水的长期演变模态具有重要意义。本文基于瞬变古气候模拟的分析发现：在轨道尺度气候变化下，东亚夏季风降水的变化中心位于季风区北边界附近的半干旱区，是季风环流整体性演变及季风区北边界摆动的综合作用结果。东亚夏季风降水的轨道尺度演变模态与古气候记录的指示相一致，但与当前观测记录给出的以年际尺度变化为主的模态显著不同，说明东亚夏季风降水对气候变化的响应与气候变化的时间尺度有关。进一步的分析表明：轨道尺度气候变化下东亚夏季风北方降水的响应幅度取决于气候变化的驱动因素，其中轨道辐射的影响最为显著。