应急物资调运的动态协同决策优化建模仿真

为有效解决应急物资调运决策问题,提高应急物资利用率。总结应急物资调运基本流程、管理方法及存在问题,分析应急物资调运系统动静态资源、灾害分布及优先级等因素,借鉴动态调配 Multi Agent方法研究应急救援保障部门间协同作用,对应急物资调运系统供需路径与救援时效进行分析,构建应急物资调运系统高效、及时、低成本的动态调度模型,同时基于多源时间最短路径问题以及Floyd Warshall算法对模型进行求解仿真,得出应急物资最优调运路径和参与调配储存点组合。结果表明:动态调运决策模型可从备选集合中快速搜索应急调运所需最佳方案,能为应急救援提供更加可靠的保障。     

Accident consequence calculation of ammonia dispersion in factory area

With the widespread use of ammonia in the process industry, more and more accidents were caused by ammonia leakage and dispersion. The dispersion of ammonia is determined by its physical properties, release source conditions and atmospheric environment. Full-scale numerical simulation based on CFD theory was carried out to study the dispersion law of ammonia in a food factory. It was found that ammonia concentrated on the symmetric plane and showed an upward movement near the source. Moreover, the effect of pressure on the dispersion of ammonia was explored showing that the concentration of ammonia near the source increased with the increase of pressure, while the dispersion of ammonia far from the source is mainly influenced by wind field. Last but not the least, the dangerous area completely covers the obstacle region according to the harmful concentration, but the lethal concentration range and explosion range both only existed near the release source. Correspondingly, the concentration of ammonia in the region far from the symmetric plane can be regarded as a safe area. When the accident happens, one should stay away from the release source and evacuate towards the sides in a timely manner. We hope that this work can provide an effective method in predicting the impact of ammonia dispersion and can arouse concerns over the public safety.     

人员疏散出口布置对城市地下环路疏散效率的影响研究*

为研究城市地下环路疏散出口对疏散的影响,优化疏散出口布置,应用Pathfinder软件对城市地下环路的人员疏散进行研究。调研分析城市地下环路的人员类型与紧急状况下的行动速度,分析不同疏散出口距离、宽度、类型对疏散时间及疏散速率的影响。结果表明:随着疏散出口距离的增加,人员的疏散时间呈线性增加趋势;疏散出口宽度大于1.0 m时,对人员的疏散时间影响较小,反之影响较大;地下环路内人员的疏散,不仅与疏散出口有关,还与疏散人员的肩宽以及车辆与防撞侧石的距离有关;借用车库出口疏散可增加疏散的效率,但确保疏散楼梯前畅通对疏散更有利。     

Transport and distribution of artificial gamma-emitting radionuclides in the River Yenisei and its sediment

Discharges from the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Industrial Complex (KMCIC) near Krasnoyarsk resulted in radioactive contamination of sediments of the River Yenisei. Between 1999 and 2006, 16 sediment cores were collected at different positions 15-1500 km downstream from the discharge point. The concentration of artificial gamma-emitting radionuclides (¹³⁷Cs, ⁶⁰Co, ¹⁵²Eu, and ²⁴¹Am) was determined with the objective to analyze the migration processes leading to the transport of these radionuclides along the river and to their vertical distribution within the sediment. In cores taken in the vicinity of the reactors, the average activity concentration of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹⁵²Eu, and ⁶⁰Co was about 1000 Bq kg⁻¹, and the activity concentration of ²⁴¹Am was about 20 Bq kg⁻¹. Contamination levels of artificial radionuclides were decreasing with increasing distance downstream the KMCIC: The fastest decrease of average activity by a factor of 10 over a distance of 300 km was observed for ²⁴¹Am, whereas for ¹³⁷Cs this decrease occurred over a distance of 1100 km. Sequential extraction experiments revealed that in all depths and at all distances the studied radionuclides were tightly bound to the sediment.To investigate the mechanisms of transport of the ¹³⁷Cs and ⁶⁰Co contamination, mathematical models have been used to describe the contamination in the river water and within the sediments.     

Conceptual Framework of Tourism Carrying Capacity for a Tourism City： Experiences from National Parks in the United States

There is no universally-accepted definition of tourism carrying capacity(TCC).Numerical TCC focuses on use level and is considered as"a magic number"of the saturation point for tourism.There are several reasons why numerical tourism capacity is inadequate.Alternatively,tourism capacity can be defined in terms of limits of acceptable change,which shifts the focus from"how much use is too much"to"how much change is acceptable".This article proposes an improved conceptual framework for evaluating carrying capacity for the tourism city based on approaches used in US national parks,which consider the impact of human use on a city's economic,environmental/resource,and socio-cultural conditions.Based on the basic data of indicator values and relevant standards,the framework monitors the current indicators and predicts future indicator values; it can also be used to assess and predict TCC.     

Validation of I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of ¹³¹I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of ¹³⁷Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of ¹³¹I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of ¹³¹I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions.A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.     

Municipal solid waste management and short-term projection of the waste discard levels in Taiwan

Industrialization and urbanization result in significant changes in lifestyle. These lifestyle changes seem to lead to unsustainable consumption patterns and increase the generation of various kinds of environmental loads, especially the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW). Taiwan is a small island with scarce natural resources. The economic development in Taiwan has resulted in the generation of large amounts of MSW. As a result, the Taiwan Environmental Pollution Administration (TEPA) has produced regulations for waste minimization and has imposed several important policy measures that have successfully reduced the MSW discard rate in recent years and have established a public recycling network as a part of the MSW collection. Nowadays, the objective of the MSW policies in Taiwan is to develop a “zero-waste society.” This article aims to review the MSW management progress in Taiwan and to project future MSW discards up to 2011 based on the national plan and assumed scenarios for socioeconomic variables. According to the analysis results, a more sustainable consumption pattern can be proposed and the corresponding MSW management system can be planned so as to develop a low-waste-discard society.     

负压防护急救车车厢内生物污染物运动扩散的数值模拟与试验验证

为掌握负压防护急救车车厢内生物污染物的分布情况,运用计算流体动力学(CFD)方法和拉格朗日颗粒随机轨道模型,对该车车厢内生物污染物的运动扩散进行数值模拟;并通过试验对比研究车厢内污染物浓度场的分布状态,试验与模拟的结果基本一致。同时表明:该随机轨道模型较好地反映生物污染物运动扩散的时空分布特点;负压防护急救车车厢内污染物浓度较高,医护人员应穿戴有效的个人防护器材。     

某装药弹振动特性的安全分析

为分析某装药弹的振动特性,并为该弹提供必要的力学数据,建立某装药弹模态方程。采用ANSYS软件对该弹振动特性进行了数值模拟,利用Block Lanczos法求解,得到前10阶振动固有频率和振型。分析结果表明:低阶频率主要以摆动和转动为主,高阶频率主要以弯曲扭动为主,低阶频率对该弹的影响比较小,高阶频率对该弹的影响比较大,尤其是7～10阶频率,该弹的主振频率为1053.8 Hz,为该弹的优化设计提供科学依据,在加工、储存、运输和使用条件下应低于该频率;为验证该方法可信度,采用某小型装药弹进行了实验验证,实验结果和仿真结果偏差小于1%;同时证明该有限元数值分析的方法是经济可靠的。     

掘进巷道瓦斯分布数值实验研究

根据局部通风流场特点确定适合矿井局部通风掘进巷道工作面瓦斯与风流质量交换的数学模型,在近壁面使用标准壁面函数法解决近壁面的流动,在湍流充分发展区,使用RNG k-ε双方程湍流模型;讨论考虑巷道支护的情况下壁面粗糙度的影响,确定矿井掘进工作面局部通风模型网格划分的方法、掘进头瓦斯涌出的边界条件;利用计算流体力学(CFD)软件Fluent对掘进工作面的风流与瓦斯的混合过程进行了模拟;得出不同瓦斯涌出量情况下掘进巷道工作面风流分布和瓦斯浓度的分布规律。研究表明:瓦斯涌出量和风速对流场分布有影响,随着瓦斯涌出量的增大和风速的降低,瓦斯对流场的影响越来越明显。