中国可持续发展与国家安全文化战略的新对策

“可持续发展”战略的实质是社会、经济发展与资源、环境相协调的一种发展模式。值得注意，这一人类社会发展模式中跨世纪重大转变的策略，尚未引起安全与减灾科技界的普遍关注，不仅在安全减灾战略研究中很少涉及，严重的是它阻碍了安全减灾诸领域跨世纪及决策课题研究的深度，造成与国际接轨进程缓慢。为此，立足可持续发展思路，并以全新视角、系统地讨论适宜安全减灾文化战略的总体对策，可望能为中国二十一世纪安全保障及科技发展提供科学指南     

多层商住楼抗震设防投资效益评价

针对不同结构多层商住楼的具体特征，运用结构易损性分析方法对各类房屋未来的震害情况进行了分析，给出了震害损失与投资效果的综合评价方法，为进行这类房屋的结构选型、设计及工程投资的优化提供一定的理论依据。     

海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸引发了新一轮海啸预警系统的研究。简述了地震海啸预警的原理，分析了海啸数值模拟的一些基本方法，综述了目前世界上多个国家海啸预警系统的建设情况，通过对我国海啸灾害研究现状的分析，明确了我国当前海啸防灾减灾工作的主要任务。     

滑坡灾害快速反应系统

滑坡灾害快速反应系统由滑坡知识、受灾体和救灾指挥3部分组成.其中每一部分都包括一个完整的体系,并有评价指标描述.该系统的实现主要依靠滑坡数据库、动态仿真模拟和抢险救灾预案技术的支撑.     

Literary and economic impact of the Bhopal gas tragedy

The 1984 Bhopal disaster is widely regarded as a watershed event in the field of process-safety and has been largely responsible for a paradigm shift in the outlook of both industry and the public towards risk management within the processing industries. The Bhopal disaster has led to increased regulations and awareness for process-safety related activities across the globe. This paper reports the effect of the infamous Bhopal incident on the research community and examines the performance of manufacturing industries following the disaster.

For this paper, databases of scientific publications were used to investigate research trends in the safety area following the 1984 Bhopal disaster. Our analysis focuses on prominent safety-related research fields that have emerged following the gas tragedy as well as economic indicators of the processing industries. The study reveals that the process industry has consistently progressed over the years, in spite of added regulations and a worsened public image following the Bhopal disaster, and promises to be a stable economy in the future.     

区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅰ)——原理与方法

区域洪水灾害风险评估是一个新的研究领域。从洪水灾害系统的概念出发,首先阐述了洪水灾害风险管理系统、洪水风险评估及风险类型划分;然后从指标选取原则、指标层次结构、指标量化、风险等级、风险指数等方面构建了洪水灾害风险评估指标体系;接着分析了矢量面状及栅格点状的洪水灾害风险评估单元;最后,介绍了适合区域洪水灾害风险评估的层次分析法、模糊综合评价法及空间分析方法。     

水稻生产气象灾害危险性分析：—以湖南省常德市水稻生产为例

本文通过对研究区水稻气象灾害规律的研究和危险性评价,计算了不同等级的水稻综合风险率,为保险部门制定水稻保险费率提供了科学依据.     

自然灾害保险的委托─代理模型

灾害保险是筹措防灾救灾资金的重要手段．本文运用委托-代理理论建立了自然灾害的保险模型,对自然灾害的最优保险合同和保险费率进行了研究,为开展自然灾害的保险业务提供了理论依据．     

Information technologies and the sharing of disaster knowledge: the critical role of professional culture

A comparative survey of a diverse sample of 96 US and Italian emergency management agencies shows that the diffusion of new information technologies (IT) has transformed disaster communications. Although these technologies permit access to and the dissemination of massive amounts of disaster information with unprecedented speed and efficiency, barriers rooted in the various professional cultures still hinder the sharing of disaster knowledge. To be effective the available IT must be attuned to the unique settings and professional cultures of the local emergency management communities. Findings show that available technology, context, professional culture and interaction are key factors that affect the knowledge transfer process. Cultural filters appear to influence emergency managers' perceptions of their own professional roles, their vision of the applicability of technology to social issues, and their perspective on the transferability of disaster knowledge. Four cultural approaches to the application of IT to disaster communications are defined: technocentric; geographic,; anthropocentric; and ecocentric.     

干旱、农业旱灾与农户旱灾脆弱性分析——以邢台县典型农户为例

从微观农户角度分析了干旱、农业旱灾和农户旱灾脆弱性的成因。文章认为,自然降水不足或与作物需求匹配不均是造成农业干旱的动力,农户对干旱的应付能力不足是导致干旱成灾的原因。这种应付能力既受区域水资源可利用量的限制,也与农户的作物种植结构、灌溉支付能力、风险认识和对农业的依赖程度有关。农户旱灾脆弱性既与农业干旱有关,又受到人均资源和收入、种植和消费结构、生态环境质量、政策、市场价格等多重因素的作用。最脆