Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental‐scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta‐analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post‐glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post‐glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.     

Implications of genetics and current protected areas for conservation of 5 endangered primates in China

Most of China's 24–28 primate species are threatened with extinction. Habitat reduction and fragmentation are perhaps the greatest threats. We used published data from a conservation genetics study of 5 endangered primates in China (Rhinopithecus roxellana, R. bieti, R. brelichi, Trachypithecus francoisi, and T. leucocephalus); distribution data on these species; and the distribution, area, and location of protected areas to inform conservation strategies for these primates. All 5 species were separated into subpopulations with unique genetic components. Gene flow appeared to be strongly impeded by agricultural land, meadows used for grazing, highways, and humans dwellings. Most species declined severely or diverged concurrently as human population and crop land cover increased. Nature reserves were not evenly distributed across subpopulations with unique genetic backgrounds. Certain small subpopulations were severely fragmented and had higher extinction risk than others. Primate mobility is limited and their genetic structure is strong and susceptible to substantial loss of diversity due to local extinction. Thus, to maximize preservation of genetic diversity in all these primate species, our results suggest protection is required for all sub‐populations. Key priorities for their conservation include maintaining R. roxellana in Shennongjia national reserve, subpopulations S4 and S5 of R. bieti and of R. brelichi in Fanjingshan national reserve, subpopulation CGX of T. francoisi in central Guangxi Province, and all 3 T. leucocephalus sub‐populations in central Guangxi Province.     

惠州市土地资源及其利用保护

从惠州市土地资源及其利用现状入手，分析其在土地资源利用上存在的耕地面积锐减、土地资源承载力下降、耕地土壤肥力下降、水土流失严重以及土壤和农作物被污染等问题，提出相应的土地资源利用和保护措施。     

海洋纤毛虫实验生态学研究 IV:不同人工海水培养液及温度对扇形游仆虫种群增长的影响

为了揭示出海洋纤毛虫在人工海水中及不同温度下的种群动力学,利用实验生态学方法,就4种培养液及2种(17℃和23℃)温度对海洋纤毛虫扇形游仆虫(Euplotesvannus Müller,1786)种群增长的影响进行了初步探讨.结果显示①该种纤毛虫原生动物在4种人工海水培养液中的种群增长率大小顺序为牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;②种群密度大小顺序依次为米粒培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;③指数增长期及稳定期在米粒培养液中均长于牛肉浸膏培养液;④随着培养温度的升高,种群增长率增大,指数增长期及稳定期缩短;⑤温度系数(Q10)的大小顺序为蛋白胨培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液.结果表明,米粒人工海水培养液不仅适合于保种培养,而且适合于种群的扩大培养,而牛肉浸膏培养液更适合于种群的快速扩大培养,其他两种培养液则只适合于保种培养.图2表4参13     

人工接种堆肥和自然堆肥微生物区系与分子多态性的变化

采用传统培养方法和PCR-DGGE技术研究了人工接种堆肥和自然堆肥微生物群落的演变过程。结果表明:(1)传统培养方法显示,两种堆肥堆制过程中微生物数量均呈“升高—降低—升高—降低”变化趋势,整个堆肥过程中细菌数量占优势。(2)DGGE图谱显示,两种堆肥不同时期存在不同的细菌种群,其条带数量亦呈“升高—降低—升高—降低”变化趋势。堆肥升温期条带丰富但优势条带不明显;堆肥高温期条带数量减少但出现优势条带,表明高温阶段以嗜热菌或耐高温菌为主;堆肥降温期条带数量再次增多;堆肥腐熟期条带数量少且无优势条带,表明腐熟阶段微生物种群数量少且代谢强度趋于平缓。(3)DGGE图谱表明,人工接种菌株成为堆肥高温期优势菌株。人工接种增加了堆肥中微生物总量,提高了堆肥微生物种群多样性,并且促进了堆肥菌群演替,从而缩短堆肥腐熟时间。     

Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

鼓翅皱膝蝗生态学特性研究

在甘肃省夏河县对鼓翅皱膝蝗的种群结构、数量变动、空间格局及动脉进行了系统研究。鼓翅皱膝蝗1a发生1代，以卵在土中越冬，翌年5月中旬开始孵化出土，6月上旬达到出土高峰，此期蝗虫种群仅由1龄和2龄蝗蝻组成，其中1龄蝗蝻占81.8％，2龄蝗蝻占18.2％，成虫于7月上旬开始羽化，8月上旬达到羽化高峰，此期的成虫数量达61.3％，而蝗蝻仅占38.7％，蝗蝻期约为72d，成虫寿命54d左右，每雌平均产卵32.6粒。鼓翅皱膝蝗在草地上属聚集分布，蝗蝻发生期种群的空间动态主要表现出扩散趋势，但初孵化出土时有短暂的聚集行为。取食量随龄期增大而增大，每头鼓翅皱膝蝗取食牧草量蝗蝻期平均为1.5g，成早期约为5.8g，成早期的食量是蝗蝻期的3.7倍。表3参12     

天津城市化发展趋向与水资源可持续利用

分析了新时期天津城市化发展趋向，从城市人口增长、城市工业结构、城市化进程等诸方面，探讨了城市化进程与水资源利用之间的关系，提出了适应城市化发展的水资源可持续利用战略。