我军"基地化宿营保障系统"建设初探

野营保障在后勤保障领域中地位特殊,是其他保障展开的基础和依托,如何适应现代战争体系作战的要求,实现体系化野营保障,是当今世界军事强国在后勤领域内的研究重点,针对此,通过研究美军"力量提供者系统"、俄军"自主式野战军营系统"和国内"救灾生活系统"等基地化宿营保障系统的研制目标、模块组成和使用情况,并从保障规模设置、功能模块组成、储运条件、保障力量设置与编程和主要运用场景及程序等方面,提出了我军基地化宿营保障系统建设的构想,旨在为提升我军野战条件下宿营保障的质量和效益进行探索。     

基于整体开发管理的国际河流决策支持系统

基于国际河流开发管理的现状，分析国际河流整体开发管理理论的演进。得出整体开发管理决策实施的原则及思路：流域开发管理要以流域边界为界，将整个水系自然联系的区域作为不可分割的整体，进行统一权衡，突出共同利益，流域内开发与流域外开发相结合。以建立多层次的国际合作机构。对国际河流决策支持系统进行设计，即以国际河流流域为体系，各国国内流域测点为单元。国际流域综合协调委员会为决策支持中心、各国流域机构委员会为决策支持分中心。并研究系统的公用信息平台建设，信息开发、管理与维护。河流水资源、水环境实时监控等技术支持系统。实证分析澜沧江-湄公河流域决策支持系统的建设。并指出国际河流水资源的开发与管理，水权等问题有待进一步深入研究。     

我国自然保护区建设中的环境剥夺问题

近年来我国各地大量增长的自然保护区实质上是一种环境剥夺现象。受环境考核体系与推行可持续发展战略需要．加大自然保护区建设力度是地方政府能够采取的比较成熟的环境保护手段。但是．通过博弈模型，可以推导出．受地方财政刚性预算约束．政府在地方自然保护区建设与管理中不能对环境区原有居民落实各项补偿．也难以投入必需的保护性管理费用。于是．在自然保护区管理中．保护区居民与管理机构之间博弈形成的纳什均衡是：居民违反有关规定，尽可能延续以往开发利用环境资源的经济活动。以抗衡自然保护区建设对他们“靠山吃山、靠水吃水”经济模式的压制；管理机构则实施开发性管理，以求自身努力。增加经济收入以保障自然保护区各项基础研究和管理活动。由于经营活动迎合了增加地方财政收入的地方政府经济发展目标。因此。在目前的自然保护区建设中普遍存在各种形式的开发性经营管理活动。但是．由于一些制度缺陷．在这种开发性管理战略中，一些环境区变相为政府权力支配下的环境资源．并借用可持续开发管理名义进一步转变成为某些地方机构与组织的私有环境资产。其后果是使自然保护区制度偏离了政策目标，也使环境区居民丧失了传统的环境支撑作用。对此论点．研究通过对近十年地方自然保护区建设数量的情况分析予以了经验验证。     

水资源可持续利用支撑体系能力的基本内涵

本文以山东省水资源利用实际为背景 ,探讨了水资源可持续利用的目标函数及其指标内涵 ,定性定量提出了水资源可持续利用支撑体系应具备的五种能力。     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

The mental health of expatriate and Kosovar Albanian humanitarian aid workers

The mental health consequences of exposure to traumatic events and the risk factors for psychological morbidity among expatriate and Kosovar Albanian humanitarian aid workers have not been well studied. In June 2000, we used standardised screening tools to survey 285 (69.5%) of 410 expatriate aid workers and 325 (75.8%) of 429 Kosovar Albanian aid workers from 22 humanitarian organizations that were implementing health programmes in Kosovo. The mean number of trauma events experienced by expatriates was 2.8 (standard deviation: 2.7) and by Kosovar staff 3.2 (standard deviation: 2.8). Although only 1.1% of expatriate and 6.2% of Kosovar aid workers reported symptoms consistent with the diagnosis for post-traumatic stress disorder, 17.2% and 16.9%, respectively, reported symptoms satisfying the definition of depression. Regression analysis demonstrated that the number of trauma events experienced was significantly associated with depression for the two sets of workers. Organisational support services may be an important mediating factor and should be targeted at both groups.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

液压支架薄煤层采煤工作面风流流动规律研究

分别对北宿煤矿以装备液压支架和单体支柱为主的14710和1667薄煤层采煤工作面风流场进行了现场测定研究,结果显示,装备液压支架后,工作面的风流流动规律发生了较大变化,百米风阻值及向采空区的漏风率均大幅度提高。     

关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法

针对单一交通流预测方法存在的局限性和传统交通流组合预测模型中权重不能动态变化的问题,提出一种关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法。先对交叉口交通流的关联性进行分析,并给出关联交叉口的定义;再建立关联交叉口交通流模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型,该模型分别利用Kalman滤波器模型与SVM模型来预测关联交叉口交通流量,然后根据这2个模型预测的误差和交通量的变化趋势,采用模糊逻辑推理方法,对这2个预测模型分别赋予适当的权重。试验结果表明,组合预测模型的最大绝对误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数均明显好于单一的预测方法,分别为9.8%、4.63%和0.99。     

高含硫气田试气与地面工程建设交叉作业安全管理方法初探

普光气田作为高含硫气田在国内大规模开发,尚属首例,在气田开发过程中没有可借鉴的经验.高含硫气井试气作业中易发生井喷、硫化氢泄漏等事故.普光气田地面工程建设施工难度大、地形复杂,按照工程进度要求,试气作业和地面集输工程施工两项作业交叉时必须实现“安全作业、安全施工”,这是普光气田开发的基本目标.通过制订安全管理制度、明确责任主体、服从业主统一管理等有效的安全管理方法,保证了目标的实现,获得安全管理经验,对今后高含硫气田大规模开发具有指导意义.