Estimating population dynamics without population data

We develop a biologically correct cost system for production systems facing invasive pests that allows the estimation of population dynamics without a priori knowledge of their true values. We apply that model to a data set for olive producers in Crete and derive from it predictions about the underlying population dynamics. Those dynamics are compared to information on population dynamics obtained from pest sampling with extremely favorable results.     

Drivers of Seabird Population Recovery on New Zealand Islands after Predator Eradication

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator‐free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. Conductores de la Recuperación de Poblaciones de Aves Marinas en Islas de Nueva Zelanda después de la Erradicación de Depredadores     

咸阳地裂缝成因分析

咸阳地裂缝出现于1992年,以近东西向为主,局部发育为近南北向,水平拉张位移最明显,垂直位移次之,水平扭动位移最小,为拉张兼具左旋地裂缝。咸阳地裂缝的出现位置与区域构造线吻合,说明与区域地质构造环境密切相关,构造带的存在与活动为地裂缝的发育提供了空间条件和力学薄弱界面,而承压水头的急剧下降,最终使地裂缝的出现成为可能。     

Introducing a multi-variate classification method: Risky driving acceptance among different heterogeneous driver sub-cultures

Introduction: Heterogeneous driving populations with many different origins are likely to have various sub-cultures that comprise of drivers with shared driver characteristics, most likely with dissimilar traffic safety cultures. An innovative methodology in traffic safety research is introduced which is beneficial for large datasets with multiple variables, making it useful for the multi-variate classification of drivers, driving attitudes and/or (risky) driving behaviours. Method: With the application of multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS), this study explores traffic safety culture in the State of Qatar using a questionnaire and investigates the similarity patterns between the questionnaire items, aiming to classify attitudes towards risky driving behaviours into themes. MDS is subsequently applied to classify drivers within a heterogeneous driving sample into sub-cultures with shared driver characteristics and different risky driving attitudes. Results: Results show that acceptance of speeding is highest among the young Arabic students and acceptance of distraction and drivers’ negligence such as phone use and not wearing a seatbelt is highest among male Arab drivers. Acceptance of extreme risk-taking like intoxicated driving and red-light running is highest among South-Asian business drivers. Conclusion: It is important and practical to understand risky behavioural habits among sub-cultures and thereby focussing on groups of drivers instead of individuals, because groups are easier to approach and drivers within sub-cultures are found to influence each other. By indicating which groups of drivers are most likely to perform specific risky driving themes, it is possible to target these groups and effectively emphasise certain subsets of risky driving behaviours during training or traffic safety education. Practical Applications: This study provides guidance for the improvement of driver education and targeted traffic safety awareness campaigns, intending to make changes to attitudes and habits within specific driver sub-cultures with the aim to improve traffic safety on the longer term.     

Organic matter and concentrated nitrogen removal by shortcut nitrification and denitrification from mature municipal landfill leachate

An UASB＋Anoxic/Oxic （A/O） system was introduced to treat a mature landfill leachate with low carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and high ammonia concentration. To make the best use of the biodegradable COD in the leaehate, the denitrifieation of NOx^--N in the reeireulation effluent from the elarifier was carried out in the UASB. The results showed that most biodegradable organic matters were removed by the denitrifieation in the UASB. The NH4^＋-N loading rate （ALR） of A/O reactor and operational temperature was 0.28- 0.60 kg NH4^＋-N/（m^3-d） and 17-29℃ during experimental period, respectively. The short-cut nitrification with nitrite accumulation efficiency of 90%-99% was stabilized during the whole experiment. The NH4^＋-N removal efficiency varied between 90% and 100%. When ALR was less than 0.45 kg NH4^＋-N/（m^3.d）, the NH4^＋-N removal efficiency was more than 98%. With the influent NH4^＋-N of 1200-1800 mg/L, the effluent NH4^＋-N was less than 15 mg/L. The shortcut nitrification and denitrifieation can save 40% carbon source, with a highly efficient denitrifieation taking place in the UASB. When the ratio of the feed COD to feed NH4^＋-N was only 2-3, the total inorganic nitrogen （TIN） removal efficiency attained 67%-80%. Besides, the sludge samples from A/O reactor were analyzed using FISH. The FISH analysis revealed that ammonia oxidation bacteria （AOB） accounted for 4% of the total eubaeterial population, whereas nitrite oxidation bacteria （NOB） accounted only for 0.2% of the total eubaeterial population.     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

重金属元素在冻土与融土中迁移的对比试验

随着寒区经济的发展,冻土地区的矿山开采活动不断加剧,随之产生的重金属污染问题也越来越严重.冻土地区生态环境脆弱,一旦受到破坏就很难恢复.针对此问题,室内模拟了尾矿矿渣在冻土与融土中的填埋及其对填埋场周边土体的影响,通过检测填埋场各处土壤的温度、含水量以及重金属元素的含量,发现温度和水分对重金属元素的迁移影响很大.土壤温度越低,重金属元素的迁移越慢;在温度梯度的作用下,重金属元素均随着水分从土体的暖端向冷端迁徙并聚集于冻结锋面.重金属元素在冻土中的迁移比融土中慢,表明冻土环境不利于重金属元素的迁移.在土壤质地、温度和含水量等相同的情况下,Zn的迁移性较强,Pb和Cu的迁移性相对较弱.     

山东省统筹城乡人口布局发展研究

探讨了建国后山东城乡人口布局的历史演变特征,分析了自然因子和人文因子对城乡人口空间布局的影响,对城乡人口年龄结构、经济结构和文化素质结构进行了比较分析。通过分析得出,建国以后山东城乡人口布局在城市化进程中不断优化,特别是改革开放以后,城乡人口布局演变加快,说明经济快速发展成为推动城乡人口布局变动的主要因素。     

Benzene Exposure Assessment at Indoor, Outdoor and Personal Levels. The French Contribution to the Life MACBETH Programme

Many VOC represent hazards to human health through chronic exposure. Recent European and world-wide legislation proposes limit values for ambient concentrations of these compounds. However, very little experimental data exists for true population exposure. In 1996, the European MACBETH initiative set out to measure population exposure to benzene in six European cities. This study details the French contribution to this program. Six campaigns were carried out, each comprising measurements at 100 outdoor sites and the participation of 50 non-smoking volunteers who wore personal samplers and had passive monitors installed in their homes. Iso-concentration maps were drawn for each campaign and the results showed that outdoor concentrations were significantly lower than indoors. Almost 75% of the volunteers were exposed to mean concentrations higher than the limit value of 5µgm³. It is demonstrated that personal exposure levels cannot be deduced simply by combining indoor and outdoor background concentrations. It is also shown that there is need for better knowledge of the contributions to overall exposure of outdoor microenvironments and the authors hope that future European directives will take this into account.     

出口角度对防烟空气幕防烟效果影响的数值模拟

利用火灾动力学模拟软件FDS,以四川消防研究所高层实验塔二层为原型,模拟在不同防烟空气幕出口角度情况下高层建筑前室烟气运动情况,获得在其他条件不变情况下,空气幕运行时的最佳出口角度。试验结果表明:空气幕角度为5°及20°时,模拟试验后期烟气基本突破了空气幕蔓延至前室内,而当出口角度为10°和15°时防烟效果较好,且15°时防烟效果优于10°,故推荐空气幕运行时的最佳出口角度为15°。