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133.
结合模糊优选理论和灰色关联分析方法,提出灰色模糊综合评价法,该方法将灰色关联分析作为优属度确定的隶属度计算方法;提出理想环境序列建立遵循的原则,引入梯形模糊数实现定性指标量化并采用变异系数法确定评价指标权重.应用灰色模糊综合评价法对黄河流域河段水电规划的高坝方案和多级开发方案进行了比选研究,计算了两个方案的优属度及其开发性因子、稳定性因子、保护性因子、经济活力因子、社会可接受因子、环境风险因子等6个指标层优属度,结果表明,多级开发方案总体优于高坝方案;多级开发方案的保护性远好于高坝开发方案,而高坝方案的开发性略好于多级开发方案,稳定性、经济活力、社会可接受、环境风险等因子两种方案比较接近.评价结果与流域实际情况比较符合,证明该方法是一种有效的方法. 相似文献
134.
Like all rapidly developing countries, the government of Iran (GOI) has to integrate environment priorities into its energy
sector. In order to integrate environmental concerns into energy sector, an Energy-Environment Review (EER) may be considered
as the mainstreaming tool capable of examining the interface between energy and the environment. The results of the EER should
be interpreted, in the light of the objective of the 4th Five Year Development Plan in Iran, to achieve fast and sustainable
growth and accelerate the transition to a market economy. In particular, the suggested actions will promote economic efficiency
use of energy resources through a proper allocation of scarce resources, including environmental resources, so as to achieve
economic efficiency and environmental and social protection. This paper comprises: (A) an analysis of the current situation
with regards to energy production and consumption; (B) an evaluation of the growth prospects with regard to energy production
and consumption; (C) the identification of environmental issues induced by the generation and use of energy and estimation
of the associated costs of damages; (D) the evaluation of the extent of contribution to the climate-change phenomenon through
emission of greenhouse gases; (E) the evaluation of the proposed mitigation measures for the previously identified environmental
problems; and (F) conclusions and recommendations. The EER-Iran assessed the total health damage from air pollution in 2001 at
about 56 × 1012 Rials (US $ seven billion); equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. In the absence of the price reform and control policies, the
EER-Iran estimated that the damage in Iran in the money of 2001, will grow to 155 × 1012 Rials (US $ nine billion) by 2019. This is equivalent to 10.9% of nominal GDP, i.e., a large percentage of a larger GDP.
Of this total, 107 × 1012 Rials (US $ 8.4 billion) come from transport sector. The damage cost to the global environment from the flaring of natural
gas, assessed on the basis of a carbon price of US $ 10/ton CO2, is found to be approximately US $ 600 million per year.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. 相似文献
135.
Charles A. Young Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias Martha Fernandes Brian Joyce Michael Kiparsky Jeffrey F. Mount Vishal K. Mehta David Purkey Joshua H. Viers David Yates 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(6):1409-1423
Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change. 相似文献
136.
Kristin Floress Jean C. Mangun Mae A. Davenport Karl W.J. Williard 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(6):1352-1360
Floress, Kristin, Jean C. Mangun, Mae A. Davenport, and Karl W.J. Williard, 2009. Constraints to Watershed Planning: Group Structure and Process. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1352‐1360. Abstract: The roles that agencies and other partners play in collaborative watershed management are not always clearly identified. Key factors contributing to group‐level outcomes in watershed groups include both structural and procedural elements. Structural elements include membership systems, project partners, and funding, while procedural elements include leadership, shared vision, and mission development. The current research reports on a case study conducted with a Midwestern watershed group that received Clean Water Act Section 319 funds to undertake a watershed planning process. Data come from focus groups, interviews, public comments, and meeting observation, and were analyzed using grounded theory. Findings of this study indicate that homogenous skill set, discord over group and partner roles, and failed problem identification contributed to the organizational inertia experienced by the watershed group. Implications of this research for groups receiving 319 funds are provided. 相似文献
137.
Kelli Larson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(4):879-893
Abstract: Surface water resources in urban areas serve multiple functions ranging from recreation to wildlife habitat. As a result, diverse values influence people’s views about resource protection, potentially leading to conflicting interests. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, natural resource planning has recently focused on habitat restoration as well as stormwater and pollution mitigation, especially through the protection of riparian areas. Due to opposition over proposed regulations in the study region, this research examines public attitudes about an array of resource management efforts. The primary research question is: what is the extent of positive–negative attitudes about water resource protection, and what theoretical dimensions underlie diverse judgments? After empirical survey results are presented, I outline a conceptual approach for future assessments of environmental attitudes while highlighting important value‐based dimensions of judgments. Although flexible, the framework allows broad comparisons to advance knowledge about the social acceptability of varied water resource management approaches across diverse places and contexts. 相似文献
138.
对杭州市部分自然灾害应急预案完备性评价的实证研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
采用故障树分析方法,从灾害的预防与应急准备、监测与预警、应急响应、后期处理4个方面,对2008年以前杭州市编制的部分自然灾害应急预案的完备度进行评价。结果表明:各类自然灾害应急预案的完备度不一,一些应急预案具有较高的完备度,而一些应急预案完备度偏低;大部分应急预案在灾害监测与预警方面具有较高的完备度,部分应急预案在灾害预防与应急准备、灾害后期处理完备度偏低;各应急预案中志愿者队伍的建设、灾害风险评价、应急人员的安全防护、灾后的保险理赔、重要设施的安全防护、启动应急避难场所等基本事件的缺失率较高,反映了部分应急预案编制过程中灾害全过程管理理念的缺失。 相似文献
139.
基于化工园区整体风险量分析的安全规划研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
通过对园区安全容量和危险量的分析,得到园区整体的风险评估值;提出并定义园区危安比最大临界点,用其反映园区的最大可接受风险量;运用"二八法则",确定危安比上限;当危安比在3种不同值域区间下,对应的园区安全规划的重点不同;从园区整个生命周期考虑,提出包含各个阶段的园区安全规划主要内容。 相似文献
140.
我国城市灾害风险应对现状及对策研究 总被引:5,自引:4,他引:1
阐述了城市灾害的分类;从城市灾害预防与控制,应急反应与救援等方面分析我国在城市灾害风险控制与应对上的不足;提出8个方面的对策。该对策研究包括:建立城市安全规划、风险防范和危机管理法律体系;实施城市防灾减灾规划并融入城市规划中;完善城市灾害风险决策支持系统和信息管理系统;实行安全规划风险评价机制;加快防灾减灾综合管理机构建设;建立科学、完善的应急救援体系;加强安全教育和防灾减灾宣传;加强城市安全科学研究与交流。该研究结果对如何提高我国城市灾害风险预防与控制能力及应急救援水平具有重要的借鉴和指导作用。 相似文献